I’m coming around to voting SF for the first time in my life, but I’m concerned about who they will appoint As Min for Justice and as Attorney General…
Don’t forget these polls are already trying to adjust for that - but they likely underadjust. Red C reduced SF by 2% in their last poll. Behaviour and Attitudes reduced them by 3%.
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Are you saying SF will get 24% next Sat?
What’s your latest information on the loony greens likely seat wins?
Demographics will be interesting. Other polls have suggested they don’t really have overlapping voters. SF are strong (among young people) where FF are weak. It may be coincidence that FF reduces when SF gains.
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No. I’m making the (salient, intelligent and well-articulated) point that the polls try and correct for some of the historic trend of overstated preference for SF. They adjust for turnout etc. based on historic data, but as I said they’re likely on the lower side because they try and build it up by identifying actual anomalies as opposed to just applying a blanket % with no science behind it that might be more accurate ultimately.
FG have played this well… A weekend vote to make sure students are home to vote…
It’s refreshing to see that while a lot of countries are seeing a surge in right wing politics, the Irish are going left.
A great bunch of lads.
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A waffly way of staying you think 24% is on the low side?
P. O’Neill.
No, the high side.
But the leaked poll may not even be accurate itself.
Say SF poll 26% > Red C will adjust that to 24% maybe > I think they’ll get lower, but also they’ll have trouble converting that 24% into the proportionate number of seats because of transfers. But I think those gaps are closing with each election along with the raw support increasing.
The loony greens aren’t great at polling data. They go by what they’re hearing on the wind. I think they’ll get 11+ anyway, maybe more. But they’ll probably be in a lot of close races for 3rd/4th/5th place type stuff.
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Some increase from 9.5% in local elections last year for SF if this plays out.
They’ll be very transfer friendly. You would expect them to do well.
So, in your considered opinion, what is (in % terms) an ok day for SF, what is a good day and what is a “this is the happiest I’ve felt about Ireland since a Scottish club won a trophy” day ?
I won’t be giving them my #1 anyway (or probably my #2) so I won’t be assessing it in those terms.
Anything above 20% is stellar for SF though.
Can either of the ffg leaders u turn and go in with SF at this stage. Be a helluva backtrack.
A part of me wants SF to get in and get exposed as bluffers, but the risks are plentiful, that they bankrupt the country, that they do a horrendous job and just blame previous governments (worse than normal in this case) that dessie and o snodaigh have access to their garda files and start retiring informants. Just aint worth it.
These polls mean the various crises, real or imaginary, are turning the worm against FG and despite no counter reformation in FF they might be the biggest party thanks to the two greatest words in the english language. Default.
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I really don’t care for the tone of that post.
Why?
Bankrupt the country like FF, or just lead the country into a health and rent/housing crisis… Bluffers like that?
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The biggest risk to the SF “project”
Is that they’re asked to step up and do rather than pontificate. A stint in a coalition gov would smooth the corners from their more naive and enthusiastic supporters (cc @Bandage/@anon61878697)