Sometimes the best politicians are those that do the least harm.
You’re right. I’d say half of those in now will lose their seats. But more will rise. Pr is a great system.
And that’s exactly what I’m talking about when I talk about the Fianna Fail DNA of the electorate
They come back to same old, same old, not out of any great enthusiasm, they just fall slowly back in line, in enough numbers to make them the largest party
And then it begins, 15 more years of FF government
But the numbers are nowhere similar. Ff majority governments by default won’t happen anymore. They’ll have to fight for seats like everyone else. Every day that goes by, FF’s loyal support base is ebbing., as they slowly die. That’s just it.
As the Soldier never sang (yet), ‘Sin è, Fianna Fàil…’
The world is at war. There can be no election.
Similar to what?
They don’t have to be similar to 2002 or 1987 or 1977
They only have to be enough to be the biggest party
A seat here, a seat there, a Fine Gael loss here and there
50 seats will probably do it
And then 60 seats next time
And then 68, and on and on
I’ve forgiven, not forgotten, and will be voting for Aodhán O’Riordáin.
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Just to come back on this
Fianna Fail haven’t got a majority since 1977 and won’t get one again, nobody will
I’m astonished you introduced this as a “talking point” and to try to put words in my mouth
Agreed but with slight amendment
I doubt much astonishes you sid but the point remains the same. Ff will not return to the general levels of support they had. The old ties have been broken and they don’t have nearly the same guaranteed support base.
They will struggle to attract votes based on any party performance over the last few years. Martin was a decent campaigner last time but will have the look of an oul fella this time. His front bench are fucking amadàns. Their record has been to prop up FG over the last 5 years. They still drink of cronyism and piss. Anyone under 45 has no reason to return to them.
All politics are local
But they don’t have to and I didn’t claim they were going to
They only have to have enough support to be the largest party
That means they only have to gain net 3 seats on Fine Gael
as opposed to leo and his virtual clown car of “talent”?
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FG + GP will be it I reckon.
#notmytaoiseach is trending on twitter
They’ll need more than that I’d think, Independents and maybe Labour as well, what number of seats could the Greens realistically win?
A mixed bag there alright. Coveney and Pascal have been excellent imho. Others like Bruton have been quietly competent. Shane Ross is jokeshop but even FG say that. The two obvious targets are Murphy and Harris. I think both Health and Housing would challenge any minister. Health has been a basket case for years and a range of “competent” types have floundered there. Housing has a similar “no quick solutions” challenge. So the perception of Murphy and Harris isn’t great. The fact that they are young and very middle-class hasn’t helped either though - easy to caricature.
agree WRT bruton and coveney (fuck DFAT)pathcal is meh. regina is a disaster as is flanagan. humphreys is competent enough but plays far too safe. not too sure how creed and mchugh are getting along but there’s no new major controversies on their watch. madigan has amazongly emerged unscathed from the bailey controvery (in the media anyway).
as for the junior ministers, MMOC! I’ll say no more
nothing on the back benches that springs to mind
This has been how he operates from the start though. He loves throwing his ministers or just backbenchers under the bus.
He lets Harris take all the flack for the health service, Murphy for housing, Fitzgerald for the Gardaí etc. He seems supportive but maintains his distance which helps him jettison them when he needs to (cf Verona Murphy). He probably got too close to Flanagan on the RIC debacle but that’s not like him. He’s been masterful at manipulating his party (including the change of rules to get him the leadership in the first place). But I don’t think that mastery has worked so well on the general public.
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