I’m predicting 10 for the Greens. It’s a stretch but I think they’ll just get there.
They should get a seat in most Dublin constituencies . Maybe Galway west and Cork South Central . The girl in mayo who polled well in euros ???
i think what really grinds the public’s gears about leo is his smartarsery in the dail when hes being pinned to the collar on topics that effect people greatly, e.g. raising jean mcconville when being quizzed on HPV screening.
his dismissive atttitude to MLMD shows he’s a misogynist ( CC @glasagusban ) when you compare it to the deference he gives to martin and howlin.
in short hes a smug twat
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I’m not sure she’ll get in. Most of her votes came in the Dublin commuter belt around Meath etc. Her profile will certainly do no harm but I’d say she’ll do well to sneak in.
Dublin will certainly be the vast bulk of their votes alright.
They’ll do exceptionally well on transfers - who doesn’t like the Greens. The question will be whether they pick up enough first prefs to stay in the race for their transfers to kick in. General Election votes are often pragmatic - way more than a local or European which can be seen as a bit of a vote to nothing.
They’ll def gain seats though
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hard to get elected in mayo but momentum is a funny thing .
I’m calling a FF-Green coalition, perhaps with FG as the confidence and supply partner.
I think they might do alright in semi-urban constituencies
Places like Meath East and Kildare North
Like in Meath East you have a three seater with 2 FG - Helen McEntee and Regina Doherty and FF’s Thomas Byrne
McEntee will romp in but I think Doherty is ripe for losing her seat but at the same time I can’t see SF pick it up - and they were the main challengers last time
FF will hardly get two either, so who else is there except the Greens
Cork South Central I’d say would be another likely one - they had a seat there before, yer man O’Laoighaire from SF will be under big threat there
I haven’t a clue who the Green candidates will be in most constituencies but it doesn’t really matter who they are, people aren’t really voting for the candidate when they vote Green, they’re voting Green because of Greta Thunberg and bush fires in Australia and a thousand other things
I’d say they’ll have a chance in Galway too
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Yeah - and they are a good protest vote for people who are sick of FG but can’t stomach FF/Lab/SF etc
They’ll have:
Ryan will keep his seat.
Martin will keep her seat.
O’Brien will keep his seat.
Smyth in Dún Laoighaire is highly likely.
Healy will get in I imagine in Dublin Bay North.
No idea who they’ll run in Dublin Central, South Central or any of the west ones but they have a few councillors to choose from and should get someone in at least 1 or 2 of those.
The Greens will take votes from all sides, they’ll damage SF, but I think they could damage FG more than anyone
Urban independents could lose a significant chunk of votes to them as well
Peter Kavanagh was the candidate in the Dublin Mid-West by-election
He’s from Clondalkin
His performance was a bit disappointing but was on a very low turnout so I wouldn’t necessarily say that rules him out in the General Election
His complicating factor is that Paul Gogarty will be standing again, and there are now two SF TDs now out of four
You’d think SF will surely lose one, probably Ward, but this has now become a more difficult constituency to predict than before given there are several “left” candidates now in with a chance, and three of them are TDs
FG will almost certainly pick up the seat they lost in the by-election
The Greens had a seat in Carlow-Kilkenny previously, Funchion of SF now has a seat there, that’s one to watch for them, definitely a possible
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There’ll be no election before Brexit is signed off. All the recent press is merely kite flying
This is exactly it, they probably only have one recognisable personality on a national level but it matters a jot - if they can get the yoof out and voting they will win seats regardless. Climate will be the Yes for Equality of 2020. The question is probably whether the resources are there to do it.
Have FF ruled out coalition with SF again? Is there any chance that could happen?
If there is, that will be the next government.
Alternatively the Greens will have a lot to say. But surely they would be wary of going back in as a junior partner with FF?
FF didn’t need the Greens the last time. They had already negotiated with the Independents beforehand so they just went with the Greens for extra security that they couldn’t be held to ransom.
I imagine it wouldn’t be so straightforward for them this time. There would likely be a smaller gap in seat numbers and the Greens would probably be less gung ho at going into government at all costs.
@Little_Lord_Fauntleroy isn’t that widely known outside of TFK and republican environmentalist circles though.
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A vote for a United Ireland or a vote for the planet. The 2020 dilemma.
Presumably FG would be too far away from them idealistically?
A bunch of red cheeked roaster TDs with big bellies and double chins aligning with Eamon Ryan and co? It’s been done before I suppose
80 is a bare majority now - 158 seats overall
It’s hard to see either FG or FF get over 55 seats at most
I think SF could be down to 11 or 12 from 23 in 2016
So unless it’s a continuation of FF propping up FG or vice versa, it would have to be a super rainbow coalition with at least three parties and/or a load of independents