General Election 2020 Part 2

[artfoley]

@Fagan_ODowd

. She’s walked the walk. She was on the Rainbow Warrior

She swam the swim

[Tim_Riggins]

@Thomas_Brady

man - full of great intentions etc. etc … but he’s a spacer. The green agenda is here to stay and they will need a strong leader as they get bounced around between parties over the next decade and beyond. I know nothing about Martin but i’m not sure Ryan is their man going forward as every time he opens his mouth he makes a show of himself

Just going from some of the Twitter comments of their enviro socialists, I don’t see a hope that they stay together if they go in with FF/FG. There’s a cohort of them who refuse to accept anything but a complete change in the natural order. This is the best chance the Greens have ever had and the best shot for the Greens globally to impact change, if they bottle it over some ideological purity test then they’re dust.

I also think that the likes of Ryan and Martin will be in trouble if they don’t go into government. They are being lent a lot of Fine Gael votes in those areas.

[Rocko]

@Tim_Riggins

@Thomas_Brady

man - full of great intentions etc. etc … but he’s a spacer. The green agenda is here to stay and they will need a strong leader as they get bounced around between parties over the next decade and beyond. I know nothing about Martin but i’m not sure Ryan is their man going forward as every time he opens his mouth he makes a show of himself

Just going from some of the Twitter comments of their enviro socialists, I don’t see a hope that they stay together if they go in with FF/FG. There’s a cohort of them who refuse to accept anything but a complete change in the natural order. This is the best chance the Greens have ever had and the best shot for the Greens globally to impact change, if they bottle it over some ideological purity test then they’re dust.

I also think that the likes of Ryan and Martin will be in trouble if they don’t go into government. They are being lent a lot of Fine Gael votes in those areas.

Yeah I think you’re broadly right. But there’s an argument to be made that they shouldn’t see themselves as a long term party anyway - or that their goal should be to embed the change in every party and in long term policies and then they will have made their existence less compelling.

The likes of Saoirse McHugh isn’t going to have a long term future in the party. They supported her Seanad bid but she’s far too radical for the likes of Ryan, or even many of the inbetween types.

It’s a delicate balance. I think they’ll recommend going into government if they can get the environmental changes they want and one or two significant social changes (e.g. end to direct provision) that will appeal to a wider base. But unless there is near unity from the parliamentary party in recommending the programme, it will be hard to get it past the membership.

[Tim_Riggins]

I’d have thought they wouldn’t have a future but Green movements have been around for decades now with new focuses all the time.

[Ashman]

Saoirse is very young and living in lovely Achill . She is probably too young and idealistic for cutting edge politics .

[Special_Olympiakos]

And a juicy pay out settlement to follow

[artfoley]

@Special_Olympiakos

And a juicy pay out settlement to follow

She’d want to be careful of a swing vote!

[tallback]

@Rocko

@tallback

@Rocko

@dodgy_keeper

So basically if Catherine Martin wins the Greens leadership it’s another General Election…

I don’t know if that’s the case. She is leading the negotiations and may well feel that they have secured enough in the negotiations to go into government. The leadership issue is separate.

She’s hopelessly compromised as a negotiator in that situation - she’s already expressed doubts about the talks and now it would likely be in her personal interest (and her personal ambition seems to be the main factor behind the heave here) for those talks to be unsuccessful. The other parties would assume she’s acting in bad faith and they’d prob be right.

You said it was sensible politics yesterday to have a sceptic leading the negotiations?

I don’t think she is a mad driven type who will sacrifice the party so she can be leader of it. I don’t think her personal ambition is the driving force here at all. There are people who simply don’t think Ryan should be automatically reelected unopposed, mostly because he’s too conservative about social issues and too friendly with FG types.

As unpalatable as it must be for many of the senior members, there’s a cohort in the party who suspect there won’t really be a long term future for the GP and they are best off getting the best deal they can, implementing as much change as they can, and then the hippy environmentalist types (Grace O’Sullivan, Ryan probably) can stay in an environmentalist GP while the more social policy leaning types (the Nessa Hourigans of this world) can move to Soc Dems or somewhere.

I don’t see that happening in the short term but it is a possibility. They were a mostly single-agenda party. Now they’re not. And you have tension there between the pure environmentalist types and those who see it as part of a wider social change. But most would probably agree that there is an urgent need to tackle climate change and if they embedded some long term changes, then the urgency that binds them together now might not be enough to keep them together in the future.

I do think it’s sensible politics to have Martin lead the negotiations. I do not think it is sensible politics to have the spectre of a leadership election hanging over those negotiations. You would presume that the councillors did it at Martin’s suggestion or with her tacit approval - either way it’s naive by her or them to think it doesn’t impact upon negotiations and most likely in a negative way. Perhaps not naive if the aim was to reduce the chance of entering gov anyway.

The notion of automatic leadership contest within 6 months is shown to be a bit stupid imho, here and for the SD’s too. If leadership arises there is nothing to stop a contest at any stage? It seemed y’day that a lot of pro-Martin greens hiding behind that.

I agree with the rest of your post as to the tension in the party. To my mind that’s reflected in their voter base too. They got a lot of votes and transfers as soft protest from the likes of FF and FG - it was a time of prosperity and easy to do. Similarly they got a lot of votes and transfers from the left of the political spectrum. Fair play to them for managing to do that - I think this gov negotiations is going to lose them from one end or the other though. It will be quite difficult for them to repeat their recent electoral success in my view were there to be another GE shortly.

[Rocko]

@tallback

I do think it’s sensible politics to have Martin lead the negotiations. I do not think it is sensible politics to have the spectre of a leadership election hanging over those negotiations. You would presume that the councillors did it at Martin’s suggestion or with her tacit approval - either way it’s naive by her or them to think it doesn’t impact upon negotiations and most likely in a negative way. Perhaps not naive if the aim was to reduce the chance of entering gov anyway.

But we knew all this when you said it was sensible yesterday.

Agreed on the left-right thing. Hard to keep the votes from both sides, next to impossible to do it in government.

The left votes might be quicker to abandon them. If there is a reasonable reason for them to not go into government (and a few FF/FG backbenchers are helping out on this) then they might find they can stay away if they can point to a lack of acceptance of the need for change.

[Little_Lord_Fauntleroy]

@Rocko

@tallback

@Rocko

@dodgy_keeper

So basically if Catherine Martin wins the Greens leadership it’s another General Election…

I don’t know if that’s the case. She is leading the negotiations and may well feel that they have secured enough in the negotiations to go into government. The leadership issue is separate.

She’s hopelessly compromised as a negotiator in that situation - she’s already expressed doubts about the talks and now it would likely be in her personal interest (and her personal ambition seems to be the main factor behind the heave here) for those talks to be unsuccessful. The other parties would assume she’s acting in bad faith and they’d prob be right.

You said it was sensible politics yesterday to have a sceptic leading the negotiations?

I don’t think she is a mad driven type who will sacrifice the party so she can be leader of it. I don’t think her personal ambition is the driving force here at all. There are people who simply don’t think Ryan should be automatically reelected unopposed, mostly because he’s too conservative about social issues and too friendly with FG types.

As unpalatable as it must be for many of the senior members, there’s a cohort in the party who suspect there won’t really be a long term future for the GP and they are best off getting the best deal they can, implementing as much change as they can, and then the hippy environmentalist types (Grace O’Sullivan, Ryan probably) can stay in an environmentalist GP while the more social policy leaning types (the Nessa Hourigans of this world) can move to Soc Dems or somewhere.

I don’t see that happening in the short term but it is a possibility. They were a mostly single-agenda party. Now they’re not. And you have tension there between the pure environmentalist types and those who see it as part of a wider social change. But most would probably agree that there is an urgent need to tackle climate change and if they embedded some long term changes, then the urgency that binds them together now might not be enough to keep them together in the future.

lads like @padjo & @gaillimhmick wont be able to get ahead around a politician being in it for the greater good - not the done thing for FFGL voters

[Batigol]

@Tim_Riggins

now with new focuses all the time

Firstly diesel focuses but then petrol ones

[padjo]

@Little_Lord_Fauntleroy

@Rocko

@tallback

@Rocko

@dodgy_keeper

So basically if Catherine Martin wins the Greens leadership it’s another General Election…

I don’t know if that’s the case. She is leading the negotiations and may well feel that they have secured enough in the negotiations to go into government. The leadership issue is separate.

She’s hopelessly compromised as a negotiator in that situation - she’s already expressed doubts about the talks and now it would likely be in her personal interest (and her personal ambition seems to be the main factor behind the heave here) for those talks to be unsuccessful. The other parties would assume she’s acting in bad faith and they’d prob be right.

You said it was sensible politics yesterday to have a sceptic leading the negotiations?

I don’t think she is a mad driven type who will sacrifice the party so she can be leader of it. I don’t think her personal ambition is the driving force here at all. There are people who simply don’t think Ryan should be automatically reelected unopposed, mostly because he’s too conservative about social issues and too friendly with FG types.

As unpalatable as it must be for many of the senior members, there’s a cohort in the party who suspect there won’t really be a long term future for the GP and they are best off getting the best deal they can, implementing as much change as they can, and then the hippy environmentalist types (Grace O’Sullivan, Ryan probably) can stay in an environmentalist GP while the more social policy leaning types (the Nessa Hourigans of this world) can move to Soc Dems or somewhere.

I don’t see that happening in the short term but it is a possibility. They were a mostly single-agenda party. Now they’re not. And you have tension there between the pure environmentalist types and those who see it as part of a wider social change. But most would probably agree that there is an urgent need to tackle climate change and if they embedded some long term changes, then the urgency that binds them together now might not be enough to keep them together in the future.

for the grater good

ah lads

[tallback]

@Little_Lord_Fauntleroy

@Rocko

@tallback

@Rocko

@dodgy_keeper

So basically if Catherine Martin wins the Greens leadership it’s another General Election…

I don’t know if that’s the case. She is leading the negotiations and may well feel that they have secured enough in the negotiations to go into government. The leadership issue is separate.

She’s hopelessly compromised as a negotiator in that situation - she’s already expressed doubts about the talks and now it would likely be in her personal interest (and her personal ambition seems to be the main factor behind the heave here) for those talks to be unsuccessful. The other parties would assume she’s acting in bad faith and they’d prob be right.

You said it was sensible politics yesterday to have a sceptic leading the negotiations?

I don’t think she is a mad driven type who will sacrifice the party so she can be leader of it. I don’t think her personal ambition is the driving force here at all. There are people who simply don’t think Ryan should be automatically reelected unopposed, mostly because he’s too conservative about social issues and too friendly with FG types.

As unpalatable as it must be for many of the senior members, there’s a cohort in the party who suspect there won’t really be a long term future for the GP and they are best off getting the best deal they can, implementing as much change as they can, and then the hippy environmentalist types (Grace O’Sullivan, Ryan probably) can stay in an environmentalist GP while the more social policy leaning types (the Nessa Hourigans of this world) can move to Soc Dems or somewhere.

I don’t see that happening in the short term but it is a possibility. They were a mostly single-agenda party. Now they’re not. And you have tension there between the pure environmentalist types and those who see it as part of a wider social change. But most would probably agree that there is an urgent need to tackle climate change and if they embedded some long term changes, then the urgency that binds them together now might not be enough to keep them together in the future.

lads like @padjo & @gaillimhmick wont be able to get ahead around a politician being in it for the greater good - not the done thing for FFGL voters

It’s amazing how often, across the political spectrum the greater good aligns with their personal ambition. I sometimes think even they have convinced themselves they are looking to move up the greasy pole for the benefit of society

[Copper_pipe]

aoife-grace moore. (aoifegracemoore)

[Copper_pipe]

Mícheál Lehane (MichealLehane)

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

Michael Martin would burn his whole family if he could get to be Taoiseach.

He is absolutely detestable, possibly the most reprehensible free state politician of all.

[myboyblue]

We need another election

[Heyyoubehindthebushes]

Hold firm ffgg got us. Stay the line. We are in this together

[myboyblue]

Once this is all over obviously. It would be foolish to disturb the good work that’s being done currently. Maybe it could be announced during the ceremony honouring Leo, Simon et al.

[Thomas_Brady]

Calm mate. I know these are testing times but we’ll get through this… Hold firm.