General Election 2020 Part 2

[glasagusban]

If SF get the Green and SD on board and present Martin with such an offer, his choice is to take it or go back to the polls. Would he he fancy a better outcome in another election? Doubt it. Would SF be happy with finance for Doherty and Mary Lou as tánaiste if Martin got taoiseach? What ministry would she take? Why would SF accept the lesser role? The momentum is with them, especially if they have green and SD support agreed.

[Dziekanowski]

@anon7035031

The countries you mention all have excellent services in return for high marginal tax rates,

Yes, they do. Maybe it’s something to do with high the marginal tax rates.

@anon7035031

Not sneering. Everyone who has a job and earns income should pay something towards services. Health care, sanitized water, saving for retirement, education for your kids, etc. should be a higher priority than cigarettes and alcohol. Sadly for many it is not, but the same people demand the highest quality services.

You’re sneering again. It’s towards the bottom of the quote. The reason more poor people smoke and drink and get into heroin etc. is because of desperation, the feeling they have no stake in society. Entrenched wealth, entrenched poverty and less chance of social mobility. The marketisation of everything drives this. People smoke and drink because it’s a small crutch to get them through the day. Instead of actually examining these problems and the reasons for them and addressing them, the right merely brands the poor as moral failures, because that’s what right-wing politics is all about and has always been all about, the branding of the rich as morally virtuous and morally superior.

[TheUlteriorMotive]

It’s an Irish brew of the very same issues that leads to the same intoxication. You choose to ignore the nationalism and the flag waving and the appeal to people who have been left behind by the “elite”. We even had Project Fear. You choose to ignore it and explain it away as different, an aberration as if the Irish are in some Freudian misquote immune from the influences of the modern sophisticated political communication tools.

Let’s just get change done.

[myboyblue]

@glasagusban

…ge culture clash to land in an SF minister. It would also be a massive controversy and examined in excruciating detail from outside. Why would SF want that? It’s not a ministry that’s a major target in their manifesto anyway. FF have a guy everyone expects to be minister for justice, let them have it.

Someone is a Clerical Officer in Justice

[tallback]

@glasagusban

If SF get the Green and SD on board and present Martin with such an offer, his choice is to take it or go back to the polls. Would he he fancy a better outcome in another election? Doubt it. Would SF be happy with finance for Doherty and Mary Lou as tánaiste if Martin got taoiseach? What ministry would she take? Why would SF accept the lesser role? The momentum is with them, especially if they have green and SD support agreed.

I would be confident that if SF went to FF with a proposal for coalition gov, which had a Martin as tanaiste, they’d be told to shit in their hat. That’s just the reality of the situation - they’d happily face into another election instead.

[glasagusban]

Maybe. I think they’d lose further in another election and be be back in the same place except an even weaker position.

[Dziekanowski]

@TheUlteriorMotive

It’s an Irish brew of the very same issues that leads to the same intoxication. You choose to ignore the nationalism and the flag waving and the appeal to people who have been left behind by the “elite”. We even had Project Fear. You choose to ignore it and explain it away as different, an aberration as if the Irish are in some Freudian misquote immune from the influences of the modern sophisticated political communication tools.

SF stood on a moderate social democratic platform with an element of left populism thrown in. You must have been asleep for the afternoon if you think I ignored their IRA links. But apart from that, they’re totally woke.

There are people in Ireland who are prepared to go in for Brexit/Trump type “populist” tactics alright. Except they’re not popular. One of them received less votes than there were spoiled votes.

It’s funny you mention “Project Fear”, because that’s what your posts are literally all about. Have a look at your little sarcastic attempt at a slogan there.

The real Project Fear is the project that says ordinary people should always fear demanding anything better than they have.

More than anything, it’s actually the campaigns for same sex marriage and Repeal the 8th that made people believe they could disrupt the cartel of FFG. People demanded real change for the better and they got it. FFG are offering no change and no hope.

[balbec]

And I thought all the entitlement was on the young voters side.

[TheUlteriorMotive]

@Dziekanowski

More than anything, it’s actually the campaigns for same sex marriage and Repeal the 8th that made people believe they could disrupt the cartel of FFG. People demanded real change for the better and they got it. FFG are offering no change and no hope

You must have missed the party that delivered those was FG. With a gay leader. But sure.

Let’s get change done.

[PhattPike]

Looking forward to the summer election, it’s intriguing to try and figure out where the majo parties will be:

FF - As the largest party I think they would be damaged if they don’t aid in the forming/enabling of some govt. I can’t really see them gaining seats without a change of leadership and a refinement of what their “direction” is in 2020.

SF - Obviously have greatest scope for gains and will surely try to maximise their seats by revisiting their candidate strategy. Potentially a “guilt factor” in voting SF is now gone and this in turn may increase their vote. On the flip-side, their candidates, a lot of whom we know little about, will be more heavily scrutinised by the other parties and media in a future election. Also any economic unstability may put the jitters on “the people” cc @anon61878697

FG - probably would get a small bounce purely from being no longer the incumbents. Their name as the “safe pair of hands” party financially might give them a further boost if we start drifting into economic uncertainty wilderness. Think their core vote in the Feb election is largely unlikely to be swayed to another party. Leo has done well imo in this election and shouldn’t be under too much pressure internally.

Greens - Won’t increase a whole pile beyond what they have unless they can branch out from climate activism or we hit a major ecological disaster in the interim. On the flip-side, they shouldn’t be damaged by political uncertainty and may even see a boost as they will be seen as very coalition friendly no matter what the result.

[Dziekanowski]

@TheUlteriorMotive

You must have missed the party that delivered those was FG. With a gay leader. But sure.

Let’s get change done.

I don’t deny FG did a good job in greasing the path for those campaigns, I never did. But they didn’t happen because of FG. They happened because the decades of tireless campaigning by left-wing organisers mainstreamed those ideas to a point wheere they could no longer be ignored.

[glasagusban]

Ah stop. FG delayed the abortion referendum as long as they possibly could and held a referendum on gay marriage when they could have simply legislated for it. They did perform well in each of those referendums it has to be said.

[glasagusban]

That’s certainly true.

[anon78624367]

Hang on now, they could have simply legislated it? Explain that

[glasagusban]

@PhattPike

FG - probably would get a small bounce purely from being no longer the incumbents. Their name as the “safe pair of hands” party financially might give them a further boost if we start drifting into economic uncertainty wilderness. Think their core vote in the Feb election is largely unlikely to be swayed to another party. Leo has done well imo in this election and shouldn’t be under too much pressure internally.

I think they’d lose further. They are a dead duck, they won’t be going into government with anyone. Their reputation for being fiscally prudent isn’t quite in tatters but it should be. They’ve gotten a right kicking.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

Border Poll
Border Poll
Border Poll

[PhattPike]

We’ll agree to differ.

[glasagusban]

There is nothing in the constitution that said marriage was between a man and a woman. They could have simply introduced gay marriage by legislation. What’s more, they should have. Once you start having votes on whether a minority should have equal rights you have introduced a very dangerous principle.

I will accept though that in the end the resounding and emphatic win for the marriage equality referendum was a good thing.

[tallback]

@glasagusban

Maybe. I think they’d lose further in another election and be be back in the same place except an even weaker position.

Possibly. A tighter candidate selection would give them a fighting chance of the same or better. I’d say given that proposal they’d roll the dice

[the_man_himself]

@Dziekanowski

O’Callaghan is the only even half fit for purpose front bencher FF have. Just think of the alternatives, jaysus. FF always do better with a Dublin leader because they’re essentially a rural party and need some sort of crossover appeal.

Agreed but you can’t give leader to a lad that would do well to win a seat next time