There were clowns like that in Poland about 30 years ago. The Austrians are special though.
Iāve never had an Austrian beer. Is there any freely available in Ireland?
Stiegl is in Tesco
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Seems likely Argentina will this evening elect total headbanger Javier Milei as president. God help them.
Is that the fella who dead dog told him to run via a medium?
Interesting analysis. The capitulation of supposed ārespectable conservativesā to the total head the ball in evidence yet again.
THREAD: Argentina. Why has this happened - and whatās going to happen now?
The first thing to say about why this has happened is pretty simple. The options facing a desperate, frantic Argentinian public were APPALLING. All of them.
In August, at the primaries, the mostly centre-right Juntos por Cambio (which governed, very badly, through Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019) voters made a dreadful, in my view indefensible blunder.
They selected Patricia Bullrich over Horacio Rodriguez Larreta.
Bullrich is right wing. Sheās also maybe the most completely talentless politician I have EVER seen in this part of the world.
Sheās charmless, utterly unlikeable, and has made an absolutely preposterous political journey from militant leftist to now, the far right,
She also says incredibly stupid things alarmingly often.
For example: in response to rumours that the Central Bankās reserves were falling dangerously low, Bullrich informed an interviewer that on Day 1 of her presidency, sheād take cameras with her into the Central Bank.
Those cameras would then show the public how many reserves there actually were. Except that, erā¦
THE RESERVES ARE DIGITALISED AND DEPOSITED IN BANKS ALL OVER THE WORLD, YOU UNBELIEVABLE CRETIN.
And this was the supposedly āsaneā option put up by the centre-right!
By contrast, Larreta, Head of Government of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area, has a reputation for both administrative competence and reaching out to both left and right.
In other words, heās almost unheard of in Argentinian politics: heās actually sensible.
But Bullrich won the primary pretty much entirely because of Macriās backing.
The same Macri who has veered way, way to the right since winning as a moderate in 2015. And who clearly didnāt like the idea of Larreta taking the party in a moderate direction.
Plan A for Macri was the laughable Bullrich as President, with him as the real power behind the throne: much as Cristina Fernandez has been while Alberto Fernandez (no relation) has continually embarrassed himself and his nation during his horrendously inept presidency.
When Bullrich was decisively rejected at the general election last month, Plan B became: do the same for Milei.
Mileiās result in October was so disappointing, he was now desperate for Bullrichās voters. Macri could bring them across - so they did a deal. In private.
Which left many of his colleagues in Juntos por Cambio utterly apoplectic - and split the group asunder, probably forever.
Larreta rejected it immediately. I think heās the main man to watch as far as the opposition goes over the next 4 years.
If Larreta had been the JxC candidate, I donāt think thereās a chance in hell that Sergio Massa wouldāve reached yesterdayās run-off.
As it was, in October, Massa prospered by picking up large numbers of voters for whom he was the only non-very right wing or fascist option.
But throughout the year, heās been as up against it as any government candidate can ever be.
Because Massa is the Economy Minister - at a time of 140% inflation and between 40% and 50% of the public being in poverty.
Think for a moment. Think what double digit inflation did in the UK. How millions were terribly affected.
Well - now picture something FOURTEEN TIMES AS BADā¦ and which is getting worse all the time.
In Argentina, itās become customary for workers to spend all their salary at the start of the month. And to beat inflation by using credit cards at the start of the month too.
Why? Because they know their money will be worth quite a lot less by the end of each month!
Theyāve been in a never-ending cycle of soaring inflation for years nowā¦ as well as a national currency, the peso, melting down in quite astonishing fashion.
I moved to Uruguay in 2012. Back then, 0.2 Argentinian pesos equalled 1 Uruguayan peso.
The Argentinian currency was five times as strong as its Uruguayan counterpart.
Now, there are 8.94 Argentinian pesos to 1 Uruguayan peso. The Uruguayan peso is almost NINE TIMES stronger - and over that time, that represents a devaluation of FORTY-FIVE TIMES.
And thatās not all. Not a bit of it.
Desperate to try and protect Argentinian workers, its economy and especially tourism, Massa brought in a whole host of alternative exchange rates: all of which are much, much higher than the official dollar rate.
Iām unaware of any other country which has ever done such a thing officially. Even the Central Bank itself started trading in one of the other rates: the āblue dollarā.
The tourist (credit card) rate has often been even higher: a dream for anyone visiting Argentina.
Uruguayans are used to their country being infernally expensive, by far the most expensive in this continent.
Recently, theyāve been skipping across the River Plate to Buenos Aires and living like kings on next to nothing. But Argentinians have been getting poorer. And poorer.
Utterly unsustainably so. This is certainly Argentinaās worst economic crisis since 2001/2: but even that was a terrifyingly deep, relatively short(ish) shock.
This crisis, by contrast, has been getting deeper and deeper for at least the last four years.
The country is an absolute basket case.
All the post-2001 Kirchner governments did was just constantly kick the can further down the road. When Macri came in, and started making the inevitable cuts, Cristinaās economy was exposed as having been, essentially, completely fake.
Which had included totally fake inflation rates. And also included her personally stealing 1% of the countryās GDP.
But the cuts meant that suddenly, people couldnāt afford to heat. Or eat. And hence, Macriās defeat in 2019: which horrified the international markets.
Specifically, his shock hammering at the primary in August 2019 was what started the runaway train devaluation against the dollar which has literally never stopped since.
And on their return to power, the Kirchners just kept doing the same old thing.
Spending money the country does not have. With the Central Bank printing absurd amounts of money to keep paying for it: meaning runaway, impossible inflation.
Imagine someone who, in desperate circumstances, takes out a loan. It bails them outā¦ but to pay it back, they need to take out another loan. Then another loan. Then another loan and ANOTHER loan.
Then imagine itās not an individual - but an entire nation state. Which has to keep printing money like itās going out of fashion to keep roofs over the peopleās heads and food in their belliesā¦ and thus keeps falling deeper and deeper into the pit.
All Massa offered was more of the same. But itās almost impossible to imagine any country needing real change more than Argentina does.
The left continually failed. The right continually failed. Democracy in Argentina has totally failed.
Even Peronism itself is neither left nor right: itās corporatist, horrifically corrupt and based more than anything on unthinking emotion and flag-waving nationalism.
But with no Larreta to steer a sensible course, the choice left was, for most Argentinians, a crook v a lunatic.
And they are DESPERATE for help. And for change.
Their beautiful country - which has so many resources, so much which should be going for it - has practically started dying in recent times; remarkable numbers have already left for Uruguay, Chile, Brazil or further afield.
In the end, their desperation won out. All things considered, itās actually pretty amazing that Massa came as close as he did.
Donāt be fooled. Close to half the country is scared witless of Milei. Most of whose support wasnāt pro-Milei - but anti-Massa, anti-Kirchnerism.
Most Argentinians will wake up today knowing that their countryās just taken a monumental leap in the dark.
What happens now? The first thing is the exchange rate will go even more nuts than ever. Milei wants to abolish the peso; the markets will view it as worthless.
I donāt even disagree with him in wanting to dollarise. The problem is HOW he proposes to do that.
Essentially, he wants to dollarise - without the country having anything like enough dollar reserves to begin with. Thereās been zero, nothing, responsible in how heās explained it
Iād have all the respect in the world for a politician who levelled with the Argentinian public about just how painful this will be. More painful than if Greece ever left the euro: which is why none of its leaders have ever proposed it.
But such a politician wouldnāt be elected
Such a politician would be smashed out of sight.
In amongst the sheer emotion of Argentinians remains, sadly, a level of unseriousness, even delusion, which is all too apparent as they cheerlead candidates at every election as though theyāre football or movie stars.
āThis time, the latest saviour will magically fix things and make our country great again!ā
But no. They wonāt. Because they CANāT. No-one can.
Mileiās militant supporters all think itās all the fault of the left - and criminal politicians. Wrong. Itās WAY more complicated.
Mileiās militant supporters cry about āfreedomā (which also dates back to the present governmentās predictably inept handling of Covid), look at the dollar exchange rate and think:
āIf we dollarise, weāll be rich!ā
Wrong. The opposite.
At the debate last week, Milei made the disgraceful, laughable claim that after dollarising, the average salary will be 1800 USD a month.
The reality? More like a quarter of that if heās lucky.
All at the same time as Argentina voluntarily removes its ability to make its own economic policy.
The dollar rate is only what it is BECAUSE of hyperinflation. BECAUSE of the Central Bank printing money so ludicrously unsustainably. BECAUSE of the can being kicked down the road
Dollarisation gets rid of inflation and puts the Central Bank out of businessā¦ and leaves Argentinians quite monumentally poorer. Which no way are they prepared for - no-one anywhere would be.
So what happens then? Violence on the streets of course.
And how does an extraordinarily unstable man who more than anything, needs the idolisation of his followers at all times, react to that?
And how does his simply evil Vice-President, who all but lauds the fascist dictatorship, react?
Itās a fair bet they react by sending the army onto the streets.
But itās an equally fair bet that Milei turns and flees. He isnāt equipped in any way to handle even 1% of the fury thatāll come his way from a desperate public. He is completely, totally unserious.
But hereās the thing. Itās awfully likely that heāll be able to do almost nothing of what heās proposed in any case.
In the Senate, the Peronists hold 33 of the 72 seats. Mileiās party only holds 7 - and Macri has split Juntos por el Cambio, who hold 24, completely.
In the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house, itās the same story.
The Peronists hold 108 seats. Mileiās party only hold 38. Juntos por el Cambio have 93 - but thereās no chance of all or most of them voting with Milei.
On which basis, the very best he can hope for is having to compromise hugely vote by vote by vote by vote.
Thereās no prospect of a stable government here: there would be if JxC had all followed Macri, but they didnāt, and were appalled at what he and Bullrich did.
So what happens when Milei discovers that in practice, he can hardly do anything?
And what happens when the 56% of Argentinians who just voted for him realise that too?
He turns incandescent, blames āla castaā (the caste/elite) and starts making absolute merry hell.
Causing utterly horrific, violent levels of division. Probably including arrests of Peronist figures too.
Thatās what weāre headed for here. Either scenario is absolutely appalling and will almost certainly include bloodshed. Maybe considerable amounts of it.
Aware of the dangers, you might find JxC voting for things they really hate just to avoid civil unrestā¦ but thereāll be a line somewhere they wonāt be able to cross.
Larreta and probably, Maria Eugenia Vidal, will ensure that.
Milei? Milei will go mental the moment he doesnāt get his own way.
But whereas the United Statesā institutions were strong enough to protect the country from a first Trump presidency (but warning: not a second), Argentinaās are not.
Parliament will have to instead.
Iām pretty confident it will in the end. The numbers say itās practically bound to.
But it may end up a much closer-run thing than most people can bear.
If Milei is forced out (as Fernando de la Rua was in 2001), the prospect of Victoria Villaruel taking over should terrify everyone.
Then democracy truly WILL be under huge threat: even more so if Trumpās back in the White House and Putin has triumphed in Ukraine.
But if democracy survives in Argentina, Milei or Villarruel will be swept away in 2027.
Itās impossible for them to implement their agenda - and even merely part of it will result in utter misery for most of the population.
There are, in other words, no winners here.
Only losers. Most of all, the poor, benighted Argentinian people. To whom my heart goes out.
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The world is rejecting the left
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2023/1122/1417837-netherlands-politics/
This fella probaly deserves a thread of his own
https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1741283919545192580
74% turnout in the Russian presidential election. Putin polling a handy 87% of the vote. Some going in fairness. The other three candidates barely got a look in.
A thorough endorsement of the special military operation to denazify Ukraine.
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The oul fella was able to tell me that thousand queued in the cold for hours- just to write navalny on their ballot, by way of a protest. I assume he saw this on rte?
Was just coming in here to post that. The French would fight with their nails
Im not sure if i mentioned thid before but on my recent trip to Paris my turkish taximan said he was voting le pen because macron was woke and gay and that is worse than racism
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No velos or metro available?
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Oooooft. @Little_Lord_Fauntleroy belching emissions into the sky racing to sephora as an alpha consumer.
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i was in versailles and there were leaves on the line so we got an e-cab
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Leaves on the line in spring/summer?
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Is Sephora the new IKEA for Paddy?
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