[QUOTE=âJulio Geordio, post: 995206, member: 332â]The biggest problem for the US is picking a side which may mean they stay out of it allowing a well funded group like ISIS initially carve out a sector of Iraq & Syria.
None of their neighbours would be overjoyed by having an unstable Islamic fundamentalist army on their borders but the three that could intervene Iran, Israel & Turkey have reasons to stay clear;
The Turks have been working with the Kurds of late but wouldnât be fans of theirs at all and wouldnât like to see a Kurdish state on their borders considering the Kurdish minority within theirs. The reason they are working with the Kurds is that they despise the current Iraqi government as Shias and as such may be happy to see them losing some territory.
This Turkish Government is much more Islamic than previous incarnations and as such they may be happy (if not to support them) to let them off, particularly if they felt they were weakening the Kurds, the Iraqi Shias or Iran.
The Iranians are the best chance of stopping ISIS initially but would that kick off a war between Iran & say Saudi Arabia and a few more?
It could lead to an Iran/Iraq super state which the US/Israel/Saudis wouldnât be happy about.
Israel would destroy them if they came near them in the short term, but again they canât be upset by Syria, Iraq & Iran being destabilized.
Itâs a very long shot that theyâd get to a point where theyâd have a chance of winning. Youâd need a timeline of something like the following:
They establish a state in parts of Iraq & Syria.
They take the rest of Northern Iraq and Syria (defeating assad & kurds).
Consolidate these positions.
Ally with or invade the Lebanon. (All possible so far though Israel wouldnât be too happy with them on their borders).
Force a civil war in Egypt & Jordan with overthrow of pro US Governments to be replaced with pro Caliphate ones (not impossible the Muslim Brotherhood would have ticked these boxes, ISIS mightnât even have to do anything to force that).
You have a decent size now you reach out to other North African States to join or at least ally with you.
Take on and defeat Iran/Southern Iraq if they look like a threat.
Invade Israel.
WW3
WW3 could kick off at any stage of that really. The further they get the more likely theyâd have a chance.
We live in interesting times.[/QUOTE]
good post
re: Lebanon, what a mess that place is
Hizbollah control the south and are allied closely with Assad, the Lebaneese army have no impact
right now, some form of Islamic militants are attacking the Lebaneese army on the Syrian border, they could smash thru there in no time, it would be some laugh to see if they have to then fight hisbolah to control Lebanon