The Russian response will be a lot more measured than people think. There is a journalist I follow on Twitter based in Syria who has access to the 4+1 intelligence operations room in Iraq/Syria.
He’s basically said the response will be 3 fold.
1: Turkmen rebels in the Northern Latakia region will be absolutely obliterated. He actually wrote an article the other day about Russian troops having taken part in a battle only 3 days ago, I imagine the Russians will advance the SAA and take complete control of Northern Latakia in the the next couple of weeks.
2: All Turkish violations of Syrian territory/airspace will be answered in kind without any warnings.
3: This is probably the biggest one which upset the Turks. The Russians are now going to guarantee protection for the YPG who have been targeted by the Turks who have warned them not to cross the Euphrates river (in Syria). There is only one portion of the northern border which “Syrian rebels” hold and the YPG are able to take it but keep getting targeted by the Turks. The Russians will be aiding them now, which will mean the “rebels” supply route will be cut off and it will be game over for the Turkish/Qatari/Saudi backed rebels.
That might happen in the end. The problem is Syria (1) is blocking the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, and (2) is seen as integral to the US-Israeli opposition in the region, i.e. Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.
Maybe destroying Syria will be considered a sufficient victory. It will be decades before it’s on its feet again after a catastrophe of this magnitude.
Putin’s decision to intervene in Syria truly was a stroke of genius. He took advantage of the Western population’s disgust with ISIS to completely fuck the Western governments’ grand strategy for the region. And every ISIS atrocity just makes his position stronger.
This is a very long but very good article about how our dear ally Turkey is propping up ISIS. Second half of the article deals with the gas pipeline issues and how Assad’s unwillingness to bend to US interests on this matter turned them against him.
Writing on Twitter Alexei Pushkov, the head of the Russian parliament’s international relations committee, said: “Ankara clearly did not weigh the consequences of its hostile acts for Turkey’s interests and economy. The consequences will be very serious.”
NATO is belatedly realising that Russia is not the drunken fuck-up it recently was. Much like Babs Keating midway through his epic struggle with Limerick in 2007.
