Sinn Fein will be getting a bare minimum of 20 seats next time round. Theyâll return two in Donegal, good chance of 2 in Cavan-Monaghan and Louth but will definitely maintain the one and they will have another in Sligo-Leitrim.
On the border region, their main stronghold where they are well established will yield a return of two seats, think Reilly will get in Cavan-Monaghan, one candidate running each from Cavan and Monaghan. OâCaolain is well established and a proven capable representative and Reilly is the next big thing - Heather Humphreys will lose out here.
Iâd imagine they will make serious inroads in the urban areas as well. Iâll go with an estimate of 27 seat for the Provos.
If there was a credible opposition party they would walk the next election, but there isnât. As you said a lot of people are pissed off but where do they go?
Traditionally if you were fed up with being downtrodden youâd go Labour, but thatâs out. (As an aside I think if labour had stayed in opposition the last time as they couldnât enter government given the compromises required or some such bullshit, they would have an overall majority in the next election, and weâd all be looking at Joan Burton as our first female Taoiseach. They really fucked themselves in government).
The really pissed off ones go Anti Austerity Alliance or whatever but the extreme left is very fractured and I canât see them getting more than a handful in urban areas.
The Shinners will get a lot of the Labour vote, but I think Gerry Adams is preventing a lot of middle ground voters from moving their way.
Independents will probably fill the gap in a lot of places.
Itâs all very depressing.
Thank God for Mickey Noonan.
It would be very interesting if they did. Unfortunately I think you may be looking at things with ra-tinted glasses. I canât see them winning 2 in Louth for example. Couple of gardai murdered there over the last 2 years wonât help their cause.
And the two people who murdered the Gardai were at loggerheads with local Provo factions for years. Iâd be very surprised if they didnât get two in Louth, I think weâll see them extend their base in strongholds but the main gains will be snatching the last seats in areas where they have not had much of a presence before.
They supposedly were. However many lines are blurred there. For example many lads on here have no problems supporting sf and championing the cause of Alan Ryan despite them being supposedly on two very different sides. Similarly lots of anti provo types see that as one and the same and will steer clear for those reasons.
The anti-Provo types will never change. The locals will know the story, Adams will romp home after the first count and bring his running mate with him.
SF will win most most of their seats by either topping the poll or being a close second. Theyâre transfer-toxic from the establishment parties. Theyâll certainly return most of the seats you mentioned, though I donât think theyâll take two in Cavan/Monaghan - a Fianna Fail gain there, I think.
Theyâll pick up a few in working class city constituencies, Limerick being a surprise outside bet here. I still donât see them topping more than 20 seats in total. A lot of Labour losses will be FF gains in constituencies such as Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary North etc. FG will lose over 15 seats but will still be around the 60-mark. Iâm predicting a clusterfuck of negotiations to form a government as there will be multiple options available.
Itâs depressing looking at the standard of politician that you have to select from locally and shows how parish pump and Co Council politics has ruined this country.
I was perusing the declared candidates for my new constituency of Donegal last night and couldnât find a decent one among them. Theyâre all concerned on local issues that should be coming up at Co Council level rather than in the National Legislature.
Iâm hoping the Social Democrats unearth someone in the next few week as I feel theyâre the only party that had national policies I can get on board with.
not that it makes much of a difference up here anyhow as the two main SF candidates will be returned (Doherty and MacLochlainn) one of the two FF candidates and itâll be dogfight for the last between FG, and the independents and the FFer who doesnât get in.
Where Sinn Fein will prosper is by attracting the crusty cunts who donât know what a polling booth looks like. These no hoper free loaders will be out in force because they believe Sinn Fein will fill their pockets with freebies. Utter scum.
Itâs a pity the social democrats didnât sort their shit out a year ago. I like the general gist of it but itâs all a bit thrown together at the minute.
I think even a year ago would have been too soon for this election so they may have played it better running with what they have now. The last thing they want is a couple of head the balls declaring and getting off to a hurried start like Renua.
If they get their three founders in, challenge in a few other places and build a base for a shot at the next Euro and Local Elections itâll pay off better for them in the long run. Given the likely shit storm that Labour are going to experience theyâre more likely to pick up potentials moderate Left candidates, particularly in urban areas.
If they could get 4 or 5 they could hold the balance of power, particularly as they would be reasonably attractive coalition partners not really being overly one way or another.
Itâd be interesting to see what they could do, itâs easy from the cheap seats.
If they run someone in Limerick Iâd vote for them, after Mickey Noonan obviously & Willie OâDea naturally.
I think theyâd be far better off in opposition. Power straight away could ruin them.
If Michael Martin has any sense and enough seats heâll prop up FG in Government and bring it down at the first opportunity when Enda and Co do something stupid.