Does this actually work? Will all those who use to stand behind Varadkar destroy those pictures and replace with ones with Harris.
The other day after Leo jumped ship when Michael Martin came out to give his speech on how wonderful a person Varadkar was and how he was the next best thing since sliced bread, he didnât have any of the party faithful standing behind him. He was out there on his own, not even Lisa Chambers who I thought had been attached to Martin.
Loads of that on the tweet machine⌠Photo ops saying 'proud to stand with our new leader â yada yada yada. This time next year theyâll be saying the same when shaking the new leaderâs hand
Harris obviously had Inda Kinny as a small God, but trying to be his incarnation in the politics of 2024 drains the colour from my face. Iâm literally morto for the sitting coalition and this is going to go spectacularly down in flames.
He looks and sounds ancientâŚand not from Greystones.
My headscratcher of the day is this: Why do former health ministers in Ireland get promoted to Taoiseach instead of demoted for not fixing the health service? Like, are we actually that stupid in this country?
SF will get the biggest kock back from the electorate based on the no no in ref. FfG all have a solid base that will return a lpt of their curremt seats. SF are in trouble based on where they made gains in the last GE
Fg will struggle next time out. They pissed a lot of their rural vote off they way that Leobwas steamrolled in and Harris even though unopposed is seen as been cut from the same cloth. Coveney got twice as many votes as Leo in that contest but the weighting system is to skued and gives way too much power to the parliamentary party. Coventry wonât go again and Paschal may well play the long game. Ff will hoover up a lot of the fg rural vote. FG is too obsessed with Dublin and theyâll pay for it
I still think anywhere that FF and FG already have a seat they will at least get 1 seat. Whats at risk is where they have 2 seats and as you said the second seat may swing the other way interchangeabley. Take limerick for example, you will have 1 ff and 1fg in the city and 1 each in the county. Up to the last GE it was always 2 seats for either and the 1 other for the other, ROD broke that cycle. Im sure this is replicated across the country. Rural areas with 2 FG seats will be 1.
SF hoovered up in wprking class areas screaming for change, they havenât offered much alternatives in opposition bar soundbites, while a lot of people in the areas they were strong in were anti lockdown and now anti immigration.
I think youâre right in the sense that independents may well be the king makers next time round. If thatâs the case than sf will be nowhere near it. There are certain elements in ff that would get into bed with sf but independents, particularly rural based independents wonât let that happen.
Give it ten years and ff and fg will ultimately merge (maybe out of necessity) . A lot will depend on who replaces Martin when the time comes. I genuinely think Harris is both a mistake and nothing more than a stop gap. Itâs probably ultimately Paschals gig to lose long term. All depends too if Coveney is interested in running again. McCantee would have been a good long term bet but she really hasnât covered herself in glory in the justice gig of late