I donât think you understand what a designated safe country is. It means generally safe, but not necessarily safe for everyone and where it is acknowledged that some groups/people may be persecuted. For example, LGBT+ people or, I think, people targeted by organised crime groups. Applications from those countries are meant to be processed faster as it should be easier to decide whether an applicant from that country will qualify for refugee status or not. We are obliged to house people until the decision making process is complete.
Itâs basically the same as normal for a government starting on the level of support they have (40-50% in the last election) since the entry of FF to government in 1932.
There would be swings of a few % (which could lead to changes in government) but rarely higher than 5%-10%.
The times when we have not seen that;
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war time and post war in 1943 and 1948
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1954 1957: the fragmented Inter Party governments struggled to maintain vote shares during a time of mass emigration
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1987: the Coalition shedding 15% of their support and dropping from the high 40s to the low 30s. On the back of the dreadful employment position of the 1980s.
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2011: FF losing nearly 25% on the back of the GFC and IMF/EU Bailout
2016 had the incumbents coming in on 55%+ which was an aberration in terms of government support on entry. Even still, that came on the back of a prolonged period of budget cuts and the seeds of the housing issues we faced.
So basically we are talking about times of global war, economic collapse and mass emigration. I know a lot of people like to pitch 23 year olds going to Melbourne on the piss for a couple of years as them going on their coffin ships but today is really not the same thing.
Iâd argue 2020 is close but not a similar scenario as we had a minority government. But housing was such an issue in 2020 that it chopped away more support for incumbents.
Iâd actually argue now that housing is not of the same importance for the voting pool. I think a lot of the people raging in 2020 have been sorted. The housing issue has been pushed right down to early 20 somethings and also immigrants here. Early 20 somethings donât vote and have been prepared for a struggle on housing. Migrants also default to not voting as much, and they are more nonplussed about being in overcrowded accommodation. The average 30 something now has a far more likely route to home ownership than they had in 2020. Mortgage multiples have been lifted (which allows them to compete more with older), HTB is flying and the RPZ would likely have locked in protection on rents for many of them by now.
You can argue that migration has taken its place, but that of course is just fragmenting support away from the anti establishment lefty shtick of some of the opposition.
The closest comparison we have to right now is the era of the Inter Party governments who somehow managed to come together despite the differences there. Iâd argue that social media virtue signalling makes it harder than even the Chief of Staff of the IRA in the 1930s serving in the same government as Richard Mulcahy. Those managed to last three years- can you imagine the rump in opposition we have now staying together?
I certainly canât see SF holding it together. They are imo struggling to hold it together between the various strands of their own party right now.
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For SF to have any chance they need to hammer home the homeless issue which is increasing month on month with ever increasing numbers of kids being impacted. However as long as migration remains THE key issue they are not going to get traction. The only fly in the ointment for FF and FG remaining in power is if the social unrest from the UK spreads here over the autumn and winter. They may loose votes to independents which will impact on negotiations for the next govt because it will be ff/FG and whatever number of independents from their respective gene pools are need to get a majority.
I see some of their left leaning types like Lynn Boylan ridiculing the far right headbangers & highlighting that most of the abuse/criticism SF figures are receiving online in response to the immigration topic is coming from bot accounts & seemingly organised/funded groups from abroad. Which raises the follow up question: why are you updating policies to move right to meet these artificially created perma-enraged imaginary voters? Theyâre all over the place. Time for Michelle OâNeill to take charge.
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Nah not really- I think youâre missing the reason why that got traction if you think it is worth pushing.
The truth is that you had a generation of late 20 somethings and 30 somethings in 2020 who had been (1) fucked by the financial crisis (2) saw their rents increase progressively over the course of the 2010s and (3) were being shut out of the housing market.
The homeless issue was headline grabbing but most people donât really care. It was merely front in centre of a much bigger issue.
Most people really only care about themselves. And for those paying attention, their anger either goes into immigration or thinking rationally on it. People arenât thick, when Approved Housing Bodies and Councils are buying up scores of developments they know that something is being done. Itâs a fairly useless KPI at this point imo.
I think lots of people care about homelessness and that lots of people who have been sorted with housing care about the housing crisis, but you probably wouldnât get that.
Homelessness will always be an issue. Very few cared back when Peter McVerry was doing his sleepouts. It is mostly about themselves and 2010-2020 saw first time buyers dry up.
Since 2020, the numbers have grown substantially and are back at Celtic Tiger levels.
The issue of homelessness has also been put into stark perspective with actual rough sleepers in the form of refugees and seeing the number of social houses being built. People arenât complete mugs.
I think youâre wrong, lots of people care about other people.
The reality of any governing is that some will suffer.
In places with their housing positions better, homelessness is still a thing. Evictions have doubled in the first half of this year in Finland.
The question is what drove 2020. If you think it was Glen Hansard taking over Apollo House then you just donât get it.
Has Tim tried getting a gaff to rent in the last 7 years? No housing crisis ⌠really? There is currently 15 properties on daft for the whole of county Clare. A two mile radius around the rural area I live would have demand for more than 15 properties .
Housing crisis isnât just about lads sleeping in tents
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I didnât say that.
What I said was that the acute issue has been pushed to younger people exiting college and migrants. There is still an issue with older folks, but Rent Pressure Zones, HTB, cost rental, increased social housing provision etc aids people who are older and in the system longer.
The reality is that more First Time Buyers means less people who find it appealing that the opposition make statements about âŹ300,000 house prices in Dublin.
Tim sorted and doesnât care about other people. Because he doesnât care about other people he doesnât understand that other people might care about other other people.
Again, where was that said?
Tim doesnât even live in Ireland
I just asked a few probing questions about horsey funding, calm yourself.
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If that happens it will benefit FG and FFâs vote.
Tommy Tiernan looking to run for President according to Matt Cooper. He is being endorsed by Michael D and talks about it have taken place.
Laurita will be in an awkward spot then when Joe throws his hat in the ring
Who gives a shit what that trough snorting, lying leprechaun thinks.
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Majority of electorate sadly