Scenario 1 would take an Albanian meltdown and Poland to suddenly find form. Not a hope IMO
Scenario 2 is a little less unlikely. Turkey are notoriously flaky and Wales can always pull an upset. But Wales would have to beat both Turkey and Croatia. Very Unlikely
Scenario 3 this one is on a knife edge. If I’d to say or be shot, I’d prefer Israel’s fixtures. 50/50
Scenario 4 is virtually impossible. Iceland and Bosnia are both absolutely shite.
So we need 2 and we’ve a 50/50, a very unlikely, a not a hope and a virtually impossible.