I would say that it would get over the line, but not by much. The heart would say to unite Ireland, but between higher taxation, the fact that the new government in the UK have stated that NI is the most draining territory per capita that it has in the UK & NI, the integration and acceptance of the Unionist tradition, change of flag, change of anthem, change of constitution, I would say that if it went to a vote here in the Republic then it would be very close, as in 51-49 and you couldn’t call it.
If I were to vote on the North joining us but are integrated into our laws and all that I mentioned above, then I’d vote yes. But pandering to Unionists or being held hostage politically then no.
I don’t think 50+1 would do, you’d have a sizeable minority liable to trouble make. You would have to pander to some unionists though. I’d say that’s unavoidable. You’d wonder how much is being pumped into the 6 counties to keep it afloat, and would that turn off voters. You’d imagine Brussels would have to pick up some of the cheque.
There’s plenty money around and the UK would have to pay for some of it and the EU would pay for more of it.
Think an independent Northern Ireland within the EU & the commonwealth might be a good stepping stone. They can have a Lizard as their King. New Anthem, new flag etc and just elect a proper government no more bollixing around with this Catholic Protestant shite
You’d have to think that Catholics vote for Unionist parties and Protestants vote for Nationalist parties. The SDLP would have Protestant voters. There are crown Catholics who have strong traditional values who vote Unionist.
Realistically you need a full review and give an outline or framework of what exactly a United ireland is. What does it mean for health, welfare, education and jobs/economy.
I think if there is a reasonable plan it will pass comfortably on both sides. If it is simply a matter of yes or no on a notional idea like brexit then I could easily see it being tight or rejected.
While 50+1 is great, you would hope that there is planning and impetus so when we get to the point of even scheduling a vote that it is a foregone conclusion as we will only get one chance to unify once it is passed.
Or perhaps a federal Ireland, with some kind of regional govt in Belfast to take care of the top half of the island. It might be appealing to folk from Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan as well.
Unfortunately a United Ireland would, I’m my view, 100% mean that we would be pandering to the Unionists - they are still in large numbers in the north of the country and are well able to stubborn - if a United Ireland were to be voted in then I wouldn’t be surprised if Portadown, Craigavon and the Shankhill’s finest started to bomb Dublin, Cork etc.
I really don’t think we are ready for a United Ireland yet - purely based on the large number of Unionists still in place.
The only way is for another few generations of breeding them out in a hope that their numbers will dwindle which would make them more manageable.
It would pass about two thirds to one third. But the awkward squad, the self styled “patriots” would all be agin it.
It won’t pass in the north for the foreseeable future, there’s no point even thinking about holding such a referendum for at least 20 years, probably more.
**[quote=“tonto, post:7256, topic:11573, full:true”]
Unfortunately a United Ireland would, I’m my view, 100% mean that we would be pandering to the Unionists - they are still in large numbers in the north of the country and are well able to stubborn - if a United Ireland were to be voted in then I wouldn’t be surprised if Portadown, Craigavon and the Shankhill’s finest started to bomb Dublin, Cork etc.
I really don’t think we are ready for a United Ireland yet - purely based on the large number of Unionists still in place.
The only way is for another few generations of breeding them out in a hope that their numbers will dwindle which would make them more manageable.
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They’d do no such thing. They’d no longer have the backing of MI5 and British security services. I wouldn’t trust them to be able to tie their own shoelaces tbh. Let alone mount a campaign like that. Foreign born nationals now outnumber the amount of Unionists in the island of Ireland. If I was of a Unionist persuasion I would be coming the the table now. As they’re fast becoming a political irrelevance, no matter what Island they’re on.
An interesting byproduct of German unity according to a pal of mine from there was that West Germans Hoovered up cheap East German property in what were now desirable locations. You’d have the same opportunity here for us lads in ROI.
Quite seriously, Belfast would be a goldmine for property investors.
An Irish government may get the sewage system sorted out so the whole place doesn’t stink like a Glastonbury latrine also, which would help inward investment.
The U.K. have been open to a UI officially since the early 1970s.
People getting excited over it is a bit weird. If Labour perform, it makes a UI less likely. The truth is that with the toxicity of SF that really it relies on continued bad governance U.K. wide and Scottish independence.
In terms of going for a poll, why would Starmer go for something so potentially destabilising when he is scared shitless (rightfully so really) of anything constitutional?