[QUOTE=âcaoimhaoin, post: 1056925, member: 273â]Leinster to win 11-20, 3 points @ 3.6 (PP)
-27.15[/QUOTE]
Good response from your first bets Kev but if I may, Iâd like to comment on this one.
I know you had a winner or two on these point spreads but I hate these bets. Presumably most bets you make are when you think the bookie has gotten the odds wrong or gotten the handicap wrong, so you bet against the bookie. The odds may still be weighted in favour of the bookie because of his margin but at least youâre opposing him with a rationale.
The win between X and Y bets are far more frustrating IMO. Firstly, youâre betting on the bookmaker having the spread more or less correct. So in that case, youâre just supporting his margin. And secondly itâs very annoying watching a match and hoping that the margin finishes between two arbitrary points. At least with an outright win, or a win against a handicap, thereâs an outcome that will win and an outcome that will lose. And you can have an emphatic opinion that one outcome is more likely than another. These spreads mean you have to be right on both ends and I think youâre playing far more into the bookieâs hands because heâll have constructed the book for a profit obviously and itâs impossible to feel strongly that a win will fall between two points, because by its nature itâs a sort of hedged opinion.
[QUOTE=âRocko, post: 1058220, member: 1â]Good response from your first bets Kev but if I may, Iâd like to comment on this one.
I know you had a winner or two on these point spreads but I hate these bets. Presumably most bets you make are when you think the bookie has gotten the odds wrong or gotten the handicap wrong, so you bet against the bookie. The odds may still be weighted in favour of the bookie because of his margin but at least youâre opposing him with a rationale.
The win between X and Y bets are far more frustrating IMO. Firstly, youâre betting on the bookmaker having the spread more or less correct. So in that case, youâre just supporting his margin. And secondly itâs very annoying watching a match and hoping that the margin finishes between two arbitrary points. At least with an outright win, or a win against a handicap, thereâs an outcome that will win and an outcome that will lose. And you can have an emphatic opinion that one outcome is more likely than another. These spreads mean you have to be right on both ends and I think youâre playing far more into the bookieâs hands because heâll have constructed the book for a profit obviously and itâs impossible to feel strongly that a win will fall between two points, because by its nature itâs a sort of hedged opinion.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=âRocko, post: 1058220, member: 1â]Good response from your first bets Kev but if I may, Iâd like to comment on this one.
I know you had a winner or two on these point spreads but I hate these bets. Presumably most bets you make are when you think the bookie has gotten the odds wrong or gotten the handicap wrong, so you bet against the bookie. The odds may still be weighted in favour of the bookie because of his margin but at least youâre opposing him with a rationale.
The win between X and Y bets are far more frustrating IMO. Firstly, youâre betting on the bookmaker having the spread more or less correct. So in that case, youâre just supporting his margin. And secondly itâs very annoying watching a match and hoping that the margin finishes between two arbitrary points. At least with an outright win, or a win against a handicap, thereâs an outcome that will win and an outcome that will lose. And you can have an emphatic opinion that one outcome is more likely than another. These spreads mean you have to be right on both ends and I think youâre playing far more into the bookieâs hands because heâll have constructed the book for a profit obviously and itâs impossible to feel strongly that a win will fall between two points, because by its nature itâs a sort of hedged opinion.[/QUOTE]
It doesnât frustrate me at all though.
However I understand where you are coming from. Although all betting is weighted to the bookie.
I have won more of them than I have lost, though I think I need a much bigger period of time to see if itâs a decent betting approach, I may well change my mind. I just see the value there, is often two or three times the return compared to a spread bet.
[QUOTE=âRocko, post: 1058220, member: 1â]Good response from your first bets Kev but if I may, Iâd like to comment on this one.
I know you had a winner or two on these point spreads but I hate these bets. Presumably most bets you make are when you think the bookie has gotten the odds wrong or gotten the handicap wrong, so you bet against the bookie. The odds may still be weighted in favour of the bookie because of his margin but at least youâre opposing him with a rationale.
The win between X and Y bets are far more frustrating IMO. Firstly, youâre betting on the bookmaker having the spread more or less correct. So in that case, youâre just supporting his margin. And secondly itâs very annoying watching a match and hoping that the margin finishes between two arbitrary points. At least with an outright win, or a win against a handicap, thereâs an outcome that will win and an outcome that will lose. And you can have an emphatic opinion that one outcome is more likely than another. These spreads mean you have to be right on both ends and I think youâre playing far more into the bookieâs hands because heâll have constructed the book for a profit obviously and itâs impossible to feel strongly that a win will fall between two points, because by its nature itâs a sort of hedged opinion.[/QUOTE]
What does annoying come into it if your having a bet trying to make a few quid?
Like saying never back the unders points because your hoping it will be a shit game and it might ruin enjoyment of watching it. If it would then just donât have a bet surely
[QUOTE=âcaoimhaoin, post: 1058332, member: 273â]It doesnât frustrate me at all though.
However I understand where you are coming from. Although all betting is weighted to the bookie.
I have won more of them than I have lost, though I think I need a much bigger period of time to see if itâs a decent betting approach, I may well change my mind. I just see the value there, is often two or three times the return compared to a spread bet.[/QUOTE]
I think if you keep an eye on the hcaps it happens regularly that bookies are within a point or two either way. Iâm interested to see how this approach pans out.
[QUOTE=âdancarter, post: 1058416, member: 122â]What does annoying come into it if your having a bet trying to make a few quid?
Like saying never back the unders points because your hoping it will be a shit game and it might ruin enjoyment of watching it. If it would then just donât have a bet surely[/QUOTE]
Thatâs not really my point.
My point is if you think the bookies have a handicap wrong, then you can back a team to go under or over it. Betting on the fact that the bookmakers have a handicap spread right just plays into their margin. They obviously set up their book to have a margin on every market but I would expect most people bet because they have a conviction one way or the other on a price. You canât have the same conviction on a spread market because itâs just the bookie mathematically carving up the probabilities and the more you play that the more you will just feed their margin as you arenât opposing them or challenging them.
[QUOTE=âRocko, post: 1058487, member: 1â]Thatâs not really my point.
My point is if you think the bookies have a handicap wrong, then you can back a team to go under or over it. Betting on the fact that the bookmakers have a handicap spread right just plays into their margin. They obviously set up their book to have a margin on every market but I would expect most people bet because they have a conviction one way or the other on a price. You canât have the same conviction on a spread market because itâs just the bookie mathematically carving up the probabilities and the more you play that the more you will just feed their margin as you arenât opposing them or challenging them.[/QUOTE]
Hence the longer odds though.
As Dan alluded too they are getting extremely good at the spreads. Iâm just looking basically at if they are making one team too strong a favourite as well as the usuals like scoring threats out injured, props injured, fly half and then general selection, importance of the game to either side and history of results.
As I say, your thinking makes sense, however because if the odds, even close to 50/50 could bring a decent profit. But itâs not every game either, there are some that are too hard to call and makes these bets as hard to judge as a regular spread.
[QUOTE=âRocko, post: 1058487, member: 1â]Thatâs not really my point.
My point is if you think the bookies have a handicap wrong, then you can back a team to go under or over it. Betting on the fact that the bookmakers have a handicap spread right just plays into their margin. They obviously set up their book to have a margin on every market but I would expect most people bet because they have a conviction one way or the other on a price. You canât have the same conviction on a spread market because itâs just the bookie mathematically carving up the probabilities and the more you play that the more you will just feed their margin as you arenât opposing them or challenging them.[/QUOTE]
If your conviction is that the bookies have got the margin pretty bang on it is quite a sensible bet then surely.
V rarely you see a hcap that is stand out wrong IMO. I think they are generally pretty good at pricing them up when they are sub 15 pts. Once the hcaps get bigger than that itâs a pure lottery
[QUOTE=âdancarter, post: 1058835, member: 122â]If your conviction is that the bookies have got the margin pretty bang on it is quite a sensible bet then surely.
V rarely you see a hcap that is stand out wrong IMO. I think they are generally pretty good at pricing them up when they are sub 15 pts. Once the hcaps get bigger than that itâs a pure lottery[/QUOTE]
Betting is really about opposing the bookie. If you think theyâve priced something up perfectly then youâre saying they have the probabilities right but the odds are adjusted for their margin so you should stay away.
Horse racing and gambling is based on getting information the bookies donât have and betting accordingly. Thatâs why itâs almost impossible to make money from the leading stables. They are all âbuggedâ. Itâs even more difficult with other sports where form lines are easily tracked ( soccer, golf, snooker etc) .
[QUOTE=âcarryharry, post: 1071574, member: 1517â]I call bullshit here.
Throw up a pic of the betting slip or screen shot of the online wager.[/QUOTE]
Call away, it was predictive text. I didnât notice it till today, Iâm not going editing predictions as it will look like I edited the bets.