Local and European election candidates

Current Affairs
581

[QUOTE=“Sandymount Red, post: 949728, member: 1074”]That’s fairly obvious MI.

How does Boylan’s surplus get selected? Do they pick out a random amount of votes from her overall vote?[/QUOTE]

Sorry I went to bed.

The surplus is distributed based on the votes that got a candidate over the surplus. If someone exceeds the quota on the first count by 10% then they get the transfers for all their ballots and calculate 10% of each and distribute them like that. But on later counts it’s more complex.

When Boylan went over the quota on the third count they take those actual votes that went to her and distribute the relevant percentage of those, not a percentage of all Boylan’s votes. So you can imagine that votes that went #1 Smith #2 Boylan would go more left than votes that just went #1 Boylan.

582

[QUOTE=“Rocko, post: 949752, member: 1”]Sorry I went to bed.

The surplus is distributed based on the votes that got a candidate over the surplus. If someone exceeds the quota on the first count by 10% then they get the transfers for all their ballots and calculate 10% of each and distribute them like that. But on later counts it’s more complex.

When Boylan went over the quota on the third count they take those actual votes that went to her and distribute the relevant percentage of those, not a percentage of all Boylan’s votes. So you can imagine that votes that went #1 Smith #2 Boylan would go more left than votes that just went #1 Boylan.[/QUOTE]

Actually that’s not right. They don’t count all the votes and calculate 10% of them or whatever, they just take the top 10% from the pile. But the bit about where they get those votes from is right.

583

[QUOTE=“dodgy-keeper, post: 949730, member: 1552”]FAO @TreatyStones and other interested parties.

Emmett O’Brien (with a huge over the quota surplus) and Tom Neville elected on the first count in the Rathkeale/Adare area. Counting suspended for the night and will resume at 9am to determine the last four seats.[/QUOTE]

That’s a serious 2 fingers to FF. Plus it means in the next General Election (assuming he runs) he will be going head to head with Niall Collins, which means FF can’t try to bring him back into the party with the promise of being the party number 1.

584

The people who walked out of the Fianna Fáil selection meeting entirely vindicated. The reason Emmett O Brien was not selection was because going forward he was a threat to Collins it is as simple as that. the way Fianna Fáil HQ has treated some local members on the ground has been nothing short of disgraceful. I hope O Brien runs and beats collins so we can hopefully get rid of him and his mob

585

Who were the candidates that the HQ decreed would run? Seamus Sheahan, O’Donoughe and Cavanagh is it? Looks like only one of those will get in.

586

How did Seamie Sheahan get on? an awful tit of a man.

587

736, the lowest of the FF candidates.

588

Wrong again. Have another go. Third time lucky?

589

Embarrassing stuff by @Rocko.

590

:smiley:

591

Agreed. Makes you worry about the veracity of tfk polls. How do we know the poll function works properly if the techmonkey working on it is democratically clueless?

592

Ryan wouldn’t have much chance of turning over that big a deficit would he?

593

[QUOTE=“myboyblue, post: 938493, member: 180”]http://f2.thejournal.ie/media/2014/04/tumblr_n4nmn5yytp1ta4884o1_1280-347x500.png
Claire Byrne (Green Party – Pembroke South Dock)[/QUOTE]
:clap:

594

[QUOTE=“Julio Geordio, post: 938721, member: 332”]https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSDFHbmhNSk3MnZ2m-kx0T_xnIIUzVh-Ue-u1Ctstdy9rRDC8RP7w

This one is running for Fine Gael in the South City whatever its called area.[/QUOTE]
:frowning:

595

[QUOTE=“Fagan ODowd, post: 938773, member: 706”]The lovely Kate is a pharmacist and if she weren’t a fucking blue shirt there’d be limitless possibilities for us. Here she is dishing out the suppositories

[ATTACH=full]1218[/ATTACH][/QUOTE]
:clap:

596

Good man Fagan, getting this thread back on track. It had gotten too much into politics in recent days.

597

Explain please.

598

They don’t just take the top 10% of the pile. They take 10% at random of the votes. I checked with a returning officer type on saturday.

Your scenario might lead to the entire 10% coming from one area of the constituency, the last one counted (eg FF loving blackrock.)Their second preferences might be very different to those of, say, Blanchardstown folk. To ensure the surplus is distributed as fairly as possible, the 10% is taken at random.

599

Ya those 3 but it was a deliberate ploy to put Emmett O Brien against Kevin Sheahan who has traditionally been Fianna Fáil strongest candidate in this area. Collins and his mob knew the Kevin Sheahan would beat O Brien where as the other wouldn’t. The walk out occurred in protest against this type of gerrymandering as allowing a 1 member 1 vote system would have no doubt resulted in O Brien being on the ticket. Collins and his mob completely dictated how this played out make no beans about that. Niall Collins is more concerned about covering his own arse instead of targeting the second Fine Gael seat in the general election which they would have a serious chance of doing with Dan Neville retiring. Collins and O Brien would have been a serious strong ticket to target 2 seats

600

[QUOTE=“Juhniallio, post: 949811, member: 53”]They don’t just take the top 10% of the pile. They take 10% at random of the votes. I checked with a returning officer type on saturday.

Your scenario might lead to the entire 10% coming from one area of the constituency, the last one counted (eg FF loving blackrock.)Their second preferences might be very different to those of, say, Blanchardstown folk. To ensure the surplus is distributed as fairly as possible, the 10% is taken at random.[/QUOTE]
Actually I’m going back to something closer to my first answer.

This is how I think it works:

Boylan got over the quota by say 3,000 based on getting 5,000 transferred to her from Smith. That 3,000 can be distributed. If 1,000 can’t go any further because Boylan is the lowest preference at #2 on those ballots then there is 2,000 to distribute. The full 4,000 votes are counted however to work out the % distribution to each candidate. So if the 4,000 transferable votes from that bundle of 5,000 shows 3,000 to Murphy and 1,000 to Childers then that ratio of 75:25 is applied to the transferrable votes. So you get 1,500 to Murphy (75% of 2,000) and 500 to Childers (25% 2,000).

The actual papers they use to transfer across are selected, and that’s probably the random bit but I’m sure I’ve heard criticism of returning officers before for using different methodologies there. I think it is sometimes the case that they will just choose the first 1,500 ballot papers they can find with Smith #1 Boylan #2 and Murphy #3 and the first 500 ballots papers they can find with Smith #1 Boylan #2 and Childers #3 but I guess whether that is considered random or the top of the pile is arguable - and it might be that they do a properly random approach, in at least some count centres.

And those votes ballots are then used for the next count etc. But the ratio in which they are distributed is based on the percentages of the full amount of votes received, not a random selection, and not the top of the pile either.

That could be wrong but I’m very rarely wrong.