Long term punts

Sport
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[quote=“KIB man”]Have heard good word for Castlerea 11/4 to beat the Mayo champions at the weekend. Game is in Roscommon, they have a good freetaker, won the first round comfortably and are an experienced club side.

Also 10/1 to win Connacht. Corofin from Galway arent going anywhere near as good this year and are very opposable as they are odds on.

KIB 13/2 has also been recommended for Munster. Kerins O Rahilly’s favourites and very opposable. Wouldnt rule out Stradbally or Moyle Rovers either at decent prices.

In Leinster, Portlaoise are very skinny 6/4 or something. Backing windy Laois cunts in winter football is risky business if you ask me[/quote]

Castlerea will be hard bet in Connacht imo. Won title last year after long break, won again this year and are up for Connacht I’d wager. Derek Duggan still there too, not a bad sub to have.

I wouldnt touch those odds on Portlaoise, you should have got on the Town a long time back like I did if you’re looking for a long term punt.

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I’d have a scout around for long term punts on Cork to win the hurling All-Ireland in 2011/2012/2013. Good to back Cork at a low ebb because they bounce back quicker than anyone else. Fitzgibbon/Fresher tournaments are good as well. You can pick a winner a long way off in both.

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Smith O’Briens for Canon Hamilton 2010…the killaloe lads tell me it is a sure thing

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:clap::clap::clap:
c’mon smith o 'briens…anything above a daisy…

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c’mon smith o 'briens…anything above a daisy…[/quote]

their current side wouldn’t beat their way out of a paper bag, far too light…

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If they get the draw I wouldn’t go against them. Will be interesting to see how Whitegate get on. At least as good a hurling side as Broadford and probably better, but would be nowhere near their physicality.

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[quote=“KIB man”]Dont know about that, was at their All Ireland against Salthill a few years ago. Salthill were rank on the day and still won. St.Galls seemed content just to be there and badly lacked self belief.

Ballyboden any chance in Leinster football or hurling?[/quote]

i wouldn’t back boden footbalers at them prices for leinster…they could easily end up in final and winning alright but they won’t be as feared as other teams that came out of dublin in recent years and probably rightly so…too many if’s and buts with them…i’d worry if their full forwrad line was held…
i don’t think ballyhale are going well at moment at all but nowlan park is a massive advantage to them the next day…tj reid is their matchwinner at moment and maybe travers could do a job on him but i don’t think boden have anyone to mark king henry…hiney might have but i don’t think he’s back for it…boden will win a few positions alright but they are not going well either…they may raise it for ballyhale…hopefully

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makes a change from the teams they had before…remmeber being told a few savage stories about them…

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If they got the two Madden’s back from their travels then they won’t be too far off making the last 8…I see one of Broadford’s star players is allegedly transferring away…

The Mills could be dark horses next year if they get a bit of luck and momentum behind them

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[quote=“The Puke”]If they got the two Madden’s back from their travels then they won’t be too far off making the last 8…I see one of Broadford’s star players is allegedly transferring away…

The Mills could be dark horses next year if they get a bit of luck and momentum behind them[/quote]

Michael would be a big boost alright, the one thing that could kill them is the reliance on Waterstone. Who’re Broadford’s stars? Gunning, Chaplin, Aengus, Hickey, and Teefy? They’d be in trouble without Aengus alright.

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I will send you a PM…

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Update

[quote=“KIB man”]Been on oddschecker there for the last while and picked out a few bits and pieces of value.

EPL top scorer.

Torres a deserved fave at bp 4/1 but with his injury problems and Euro commitments I think he is opposable.

Rooney at 12/1 is tempting. Think his partnership with Berbatov will work well, rarely will a golden boot winner be 14/1 to win it 2 years in a row - Anelka.

The standout bet tho is Defoe at 25/1. Back in tandem with Crouch and having Modric and Lennon supplying the bullets he should do well in a World Cup year. Not sure how much arry will rotate but he loves Defoe in any case.

Bent at 40/1 a decent option too.

EPL Relegation

Got my fingers badly burned with Hull last season so this is a tricky market to judge. Hull at 10/11 are still value with noone wanting to sign for them. Stand out bet by a mile though is Pompey at 11/4. Mark Viduka exactly the type of player you dont want in a relegation scrap.

w/o Big 4

Im of the opinion that its not going to go well for City this season. Villa at 7/1 or Everton at 5/1 great value imo.

First manager to leave post

Hughes at 7/1 or Megson at 16/1 will have their supporters. The one I like though is David Moyes at 50/1. He is meant to be getting itchy feet and with Lescott wanting out, he might decide he has taken them as far as he can.[/quote]

Defoe and Bent looking decent even at this stage.

Seems like a good call at this juncture - into 4/1 best price joint faves. Weakest club championship in years. KIB at 14/1 with Bet365. Should be in final four anyway but always the danger with Clare teams that a Munster title will do.

Anyone have any opinion on Ballyhale at 11/4 to win hurling? They should be battle hardened anyway by 17 March, Portumna wont be.

United at 11/4 would normally catch my eye at this stage of the season. Backed them at same price at same stage last year but big caveat this time - they are without Ronaldo. Dont have a player in their midfield capable of scoring goals but if Hargreaves, Vidic and Ferdinand get their act together cant see them conceding too many either. Will wait for that price to drift a bit more I think.

I recommend a little wager on Wigan to finish bottom at 33/1 with Skybet. Relegation market is tricky but great to play with on Betfair. I count 9 serious candidates for the drop. Injuries, money troubles, manager changes make it even more unpredictable but its a market I love cos prices can sway wildly.

However I just cannot see Wolves staying up. They are the worst side I have seen in the league this season and McCarthy is out of his depth. 7/2 skybet for them to finish bottom, evens to go down. Both highly recommended. They have Bham at home this weekend and I cant see them winning. Hull could be worth persevering with. At the prices their 6/4 to stay up is value considering they have 15 points compared to the sides around them. Bullard, Hunt and Gardner are good players for them. Might lay Pompey to go down after the weekend. United should beat them and the price will drift further. Still though can see Grant improving them and I reckon a bit of fun could be had with a few quid on them.

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[quote=“KIB man”]Defoe and Bent looking decent even at this stage.

Seems like a good call at this juncture - into 4/1 best price joint faves. Weakest club championship in years. KIB at 14/1 with Bet365. Should be in final four anyway but always the danger with Clare teams that a Munster title will do.

Anyone have any opinion on Ballyhale at 11/4 to win hurling? They should be battle hardened anyway by 17 March, Portumna wont be.

United at 11/4 would normally catch my eye at this stage of the season. Backed them at same price at same stage last year but big caveat this time - they are without Ronaldo. Dont have a player in their midfield capable of scoring goals but if Hargreaves, Vidic and Ferdinand get their act together cant see them conceding too many either. Will wait for that price to drift a bit more I think.

I recommend a little wager on Wigan to finish bottom at 33/1 with Skybet. Relegation market is tricky but great to play with on Betfair. I count 9 serious candidates for the drop. Injuries, money troubles, manager changes make it even more unpredictable but its a market I love cos prices can sway wildly.

However I just cannot see Wolves staying up. They are the worst side I have seen in the league this season and McCarthy is out of his depth. 7/2 skybet for them to finish bottom, evens to go down. Both highly recommended. They have Bham at home this weekend and I cant see them winning. Hull could be worth persevering with. At the prices their 6/4 to stay up is value considering they have 15 points compared to the sides around them. Bullard, Hunt and Gardner are good players for them. Might lay Pompey to go down after the weekend. United should beat them and the price will drift further. Still though can see Grant improving them and I reckon a bit of fun could be had with a few quid on them.[/quote]

i have a 20 euro acca on the following that i placed back in august

chelsea premiership @2/1
Toulouse HEC @ 7/1
wolves relegation @ 11/10
newtownshandrum AI club @ 10/1

ive backed them all in singles as well…

nwtown to win the All ireland hurling at 10/1 i thought was ridiculous value. (cashmans in cork)
they are still 3/1 in places, id get on if i were ye

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[quote=“KIB man”]

However I just cannot see Wolves staying up. They are the worst side I have seen in the league this season and McCarthy is out of his depth. 7/2 skybet for them to finish bottom, evens to go down. Both highly recommended. They have Bham at home this weekend and I cant see them winning. Hull could be worth persevering with. At the prices their 6/4 to stay up is value considering they have 15 points compared to the sides around them. Bullard, Hunt and Gardner are good players for them. Might lay Pompey to go down after the weekend. United should beat them and the price will drift further. Still though can see Grant improving them and I reckon a bit of fun could be had with a few quid on them.[/quote]

the only thing about backing Portsmouth to go down is you are only guessing what they will do in January. If 50 Million was suddenly made available that would keep them up comfortably. There doesn’t seem to be much information floating around about the owners. They surely wouldn’t have bought the club if they weren’t going to invest as Pompey in the championship would be worth about 1/5 of its value now.

Wolves to go down at 1/1 is as good a punt as I’v come across in a long, long time. Free Money if you ask me, although not as free as the Stoke free money from last year:D

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Aren’t Portsmouth losing something like 8 or 10 players to the African Nations Cup in the new year?

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that’s a good point MBB.
However Avram Grant has taken over as manager of Pompey just now i believe.
Id hold off on any punts on them to be relegated for just a while and see how their next few results pan out or how their style of play developes under him.
Grant is a very shrewd football manager, he minds me of trappatoni in many ways who will get the best out the rabble he has there.
The bottom 7 clubs in the premier league are utter muck and are managed by unintelligent , panic buying muppets like mick mac, phil brown, zola and gery megson.
Grant has one thing these guys do not have, that is intelligence. he is tactically very astute and can organise a team well.
he also has a knowledge of european football and will bring in some half decent european journeymen in january on free transfers who will hold the fort at fratton park.
You wont see him paying money for someone like Bullard at Hull…

Hull got a result last night i understand but they are a brutal side, steven hunt personifies their inadequicies, he is the aidan macgeady of the premiership.

Hull and wolves will be relegated, bolton are also in serious trouble.

also, a punt on Everton not to finish in the top half is a decent bet at the moment as they are a club going nowehere at present.

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Everton have the ability to turn things around but i can’t see them finishing in the top 7 at this stage.

Bolton won’t go down.

If i’d to guess at this stage who will go down i’d say:

Portsmouth, Wolves, Birmingham. With honourable mentions to Hull and Wigan.

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Grant can be as shrewd as he like Mikee, but didn’t the most recent buyer come out and say he’d only purchased it to sell it on again in a few months in the hope of making a profit? You have to wonder how much these gangsters are willing to spend.

I think Hart has gotten a very raw deal with them. He’d thrown together a team that had picked up some points in the worst possible circumstances, there looked to be some fight in them, cant see why they sacked him, other than to get Grant in there sooner rather than later. I feel sorry for Hart.

Grant is cute enough, but thats a fairly poisonous position he’s gone into, there’s no way he’ll be able to turn it around imo.

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mickee will be delighted with that appointment.

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:clap: