Manchester United takeover: Welcome to the pantomime, where being seen counts
Get yourself comfy and have your popcorn to hand â the Manchester United takeover pantomime is in full swing.
âThe bid has been submitted,â youâll be told.
âOh no it hasnât,â you can shout back.
Wednesday night at 9pm brought enough melodrama to make Widow Twankey blush. The day had been spent building up to a climactic moment when, finally, the Glazer family would receive offers for the ownership of United.
The Glazers, of course, are the villains of the piece for United fans. The siblings who claimed the keys to Old Trafford in 2005 and have kept the club under rusting lock and key ever since are now providing a glimmer of hope about their departure, and both Sheikh Jassim Bin Hamad Al Thani and Sir Jim Ratcliffe let it be known, through their representatives, that they would be making improved bids from their indicative offers.
When the deadline hit, there was an assumption these bids had been submitted. Reports stating as much were posted online. Then it emerged something hadnât quite gone to plan. The bids werenât in after all. Live television broadcasters had to untangle the crossed wires live on air. Headlines were changed to reflect the âchaosâ. Even those involved in the process would come to concede it was a hugely confusing period.
The potential sale of United, a multi-billion pound transaction requiring teams of lawyers and bankers, had taken on the look of a transfer deadline day scramble where claim and counter-claim were fast competing for air time. There was no Harry Redknapp giving an interview out of his car window but we werenât far off.
So how does such farce occur, and why is a seismic event of such delicacy playing out so publicly?
Typically, buyouts happen silently with these kind of developments staying behind the scenes, but this has been a very overt courting for a variety of reasons, not least because United will always draw a global crowd.
More pertinently though, the Glazers want top dollar for their asset. However, such is the discrepancy between any logical valuation of United and their presumed price tag (ÂŁ6billion; $7.4bn), the pool of prospective new owners is tiny. (Market capitalisation â all the shares on the New York Stock Exchange added together â is around ÂŁ3.5billion; $4.3bn). The club was put up for sale on November 22 and, in the months that have followed, only Sheikh Jassim and Ratcliffe have put their hands up.
So to bridge the gap, the Glazers need an auction. They have to create a sense of urgency and competition. Step forward Raine, the merchant bank handling the process. There have been stories of multiple bidders ready to rival Sheikh Jassim and Ratcliffe. The prospect of the Glazers staying if their price is not met has been mooted. These narratives do not come from nowhere. Directly or indirectly, Raine is involved.
On the counter side, Sheikh Jassim and Ratcliffe have people speaking on their behalf, too. When, on February 17, the trailed Qatari bid was revealed to be led by Sheikh Jassim, journalists were told to contact Hanover, a London PR firm, for more information.
You only have to hear Boris Johnson concede to leaks in front of a parliamentary committee or look at Matt Hancockâs WhatsApp messages to know briefing is how this part of the world works.
Getting his message out, via the English media, has provoked huge backing online for Sheikh Jassim. Flags and banners in support of Qatar have even been seen at Carrington and United games. There is a benefit to talking.
Ultimately, it will be the Glazers who decide who they might sell to, but that communication is valuable in setting the scene for an entrance, if it happens. Ratcliffe has tried to do the same. All sides have been sending messages through the media to persuade the others their view is correct and their words face-to-face are true.
So on Wednesday, both men did, via their representatives, confirm their bids would be going in. The numbers might rise from ÂŁ4.5billion (Sheikh Jassim) and ÂŁ4.3billion (Ratcliffe), but they would also be sensible (ÂŁ5billion perhaps). Neither was about to go crazy to match the Glazersâ demands. The code was: if there are more bidders, then let them emerge.
But that didnât quite work out. Instead, Ratcliffe asked for more time. Was this because the threat of a banking crisis has made raising money more difficult? That has been speculated. By quirk, Sheikh Jassim was on the board at Credit Suisse, one of the collapsed banks, for seven years from 2010.
Was Ratcliffeâs request a move to seize back the leverage? Extending the deadline would allow him to observe who else really was lodging a bid and tweak his proposal accordingly.
Whatever the motivation, Raine accepted â only emphasising how the deadline was of course always arbitrary, a construct of the sellers.
Raine, led in this process by Colin Neville, informed Sheikh Jassimâs team, who digested the news and decided to withhold their bid. The technicality of doing so was not immediately clear. You canât exactly call back an email. Was there a check with Ratcliffe first, too?
Whatever the finer details, Sheikh Jassim was not prepared to enter his bid when the situation might change. Could Ratcliffe, for instance, have got wind of the figure in the intervening period and nudged his offer above? The bids are that close.
Sheikh Jassim, whose line to the Qatari sovereign wealth fund can be connected by dots, could afford more but he does not want to overpay, we are told. Not only is he cut from the same cloth as his father, Sheikh Hamad â Qatarâs former prime minister known as HBJ, who said he sees football as an investment not advertisement â but overpaying excessively now might lead to inflated transfer fees further down the line.
No amount of reporting about there being five to eight bidders will change that. That number of full buyouts would, in the words of one observer, be the worldâs best kept secret. Of course, minority stakes are being included in that total.
So far, since Wednesdayâs 9pm deadline, we know Elliott Management have tabled an offer of finance, and Thomas Zilliacus, a Finnish entrepreneur, believes his crowdfunding method â where fans chip in to buy half the club, him the other â could work.
Talk among people at United was that there are three other bids to Sheikh Jassim and Ratcliffe. Buyout financier Ares have held talks about funding before, so could complete the quintet.
So much of this is about appearances, optics, and brinksmanship. Ratcliffe showed up to Old Trafford outside the playersâ entrance with global media waiting to capture his handshake with chief executive Richard Arnold. He toured Carrington on the day Erik ten Hag had a press conference, inevitably bumping into Unitedâs manager.
Ratcliffe took with him Sir Dave Brailsford, the driver of sporting performance at INEOS. They asked about the academy set-up and football structure.
Sheikh Jassim did not fly to Manchester at all, instead sending a team of advisors and bankers, who pored through United financials and projected growth line by line. Neville was photographed with them before the 10-hour meeting.
Fady Bakhos, who was HBJâs close associate for many years, was Sheikh Jassimâs most senior representative at Old Trafford, demonstrating the closeness between son and father. HBJ is regarded as one of the worldâs most wealthy men, having made his fortune in the wake of Qatarâs growth through oil and gas reserves. At some stage, if successful, Sheikh Jassim will need to appear himself.
Unitedâs share price is a good gauge for when that might be. Stock traded above $25 per share on Wednesday, rising as expectation grew of bids. Only when it begins to reach the price that represents what the Glazersâ are said to be after will a sale be close. (At present, the market capitalisation is a little over ÂŁ3billion.)
Indeed, United stock sunk below $24 on Thursday as opinion formed again that the Glazers are playing a game to hold onto the club, raising the value to get favourable rates from lenders.
The poker will continue until the Glazers sell or definitely stay. Ratcliffeâs bid is now in and Sheikh Jassimâs will follow. This amended deadline is said to be fluid. Stay tuned until the curtain closes.