Official TFK Irish General Election 2024

Culture
301

Kildare South.

4 seater. Out going TD’s - Patricia Ryan (SF but now Ind), Heydon (FG), O’Fearghail (FF) and Berry (Ind).

In reality it’s a 3 seater as O’Fearghail is returned automatically as the outgoing Ceann Comhairle.

Heydon is a cert.

Last two seats should be intriguing enough. The cat among the pigeons is Ryan’s decision to walk out on SF after an internal row and run as an independent. She famously went off on holidays rather than canvas during the last election but still romped home on the back of the SF tsunami. Generally hasn’t done much work on the ground, I think she’s in trouble.

Fiona O’Loughlin (FF) is generally well thought of and should hoover up a lot of O’Fearghail’s dormant vote share. I think FF will outperform expectations nationally and I expect them to take a second seat here.

SF have belatedly jettisoned in their only councillor, Ni Raghallaigh as a replacement, but she has little profile. If the tide is out on SF, as many predict, the Shinners will struggle to hold on to their seat.

Berry is best known for appearing on the news commenting about our peace keeping troops in the Lebanon. A nice man but not necessarily a great politician. There is a big army/military vote in the constituency so he’ll be in the hunt for the last seat.

There is a left seat there for the taking. One to keep an eye on is Labour’s Mark Wall, he got six or seven thousand votes last time round. His old man was a former TD himself. I think he’ll snatch the last seat, possibly at the expense of the Shinners.

Prediction - O’Fearghail (FF), Heydon (FG), O’Loughlin (FF) and Wall (Lab)

1 SF loss, 1 Ind loss, 1 FF gain, 1 Lab gain.

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302

Cork South Central - The highest profile constituency in the country by far! #Boxoffice

Outgoing TDs - Simon Coveney (FG – retiring), Micheál Martin (FF), Michael McGrath (FF – EU commissioner from November), Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire (SF)

Candidates - Deputy Micheál Martin (FF), Deputy Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire (SF), Senator Jerry Buttimer (FG), Cllr Séamus McGrath (FF), Cllr Úna McCarthy (FG), Cllr Shane O’Callaghan (FG), Cllr Laura Harmon (Lab), Cllr Pádraig Rice (SD), Mick Finn (Ind), Anna Daly (Aontu), Monica Peres Oikeh (GP), Michelle Cowhey Shahid (SF), Shane Laird (PBP), Margaret Kenneally (FF), Veronica Houlihan (II), Ted Neville (NP).

Tap ins to be re-elected are Martin because he has range across the whole constituency, & Ó Laoghaire as Shinners are popular in the likes of Passage, Mount Oval, Mahon and Turners Cross, along with the Northside inner city regions that have been recently added. McGrath will get the brothers vote below in Carrigaline, along with being the highest vote getting in the recent Local elections.

So two more seats to fill as it’s going from a four to five seater. Much of the constituency is leafy with the exception of the above locations (tbf Mount Oval is physically leafy due to the amount of trees the teenagers haven’t gotten around to felling yet). FG will be in the mix for Coveney’s old seat of course, they have three candidates, of which Jerry Buttimer is the highest national profile and has links to Bishopstown (I’m sure) which is now part of Cork SC. As referenced already, there’s a big chunk of the Northside now in Cork SC (which is bonkers), so that will solidify the SF and FF vote, along with bringing Independents into the mix. SD have Pádraig Rice who was voted in as the only SD councillor in the city last summer, he’d have an outside chance of sneaking in.
I’m going to say SF 1, FF 2, FG 1, with a dogfight for the last seat. Transfers will be massive. SF have a second candidate but I would say Independents will benefit from any surplus Ó Laoghaire might have. Mick Finn just might do it. I’ll be voting 1. SD, 2. Greens, 3. Micheál M.

SF 1, FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1.

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303

Absolutely not high profile at all. Only 3 of the names are well known at all. In a five seater. Carkie being cark here.

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304

Simon is very flat on his feet

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What are the high-profile ones?

Off the top of my head Dublin Central is box-office. Mary Lou, Pascal, The Monk, Clare Daly and even Hourigan and Gannon are pretty familiar faces.

Wicklow with Harris & Donnelly maybe, Dublin Bay south has faded in terms of big names so not for me this year. Maybe Cork SC but the loss of Coveney and McGrath has diminished it too. After that it’s a bit of a struggle to think of others.

306

Dublin Bay South looks interesting enough.

A four seater with at least six well known candidates in Bacik, Jim O’Callaghan, Andrews (SF), former Lord Mayor Geoghegan (FG), Chu (GP) and loud mouth Kate O’Connell (Ind).

My prediction is that Geoghegan will become one of the least popular politicians in the country, given time and a national profile. Has that horrible, posh, nasally southside accent - he makes Neale Richmond sound normal and relatable.

307

dun laoghaire

Candidates

Richard Boyd Barrett (PBP)*

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill (FG)*

Cormac Devlin (FF)*

Martha Fanning (Lab)

Hugo Mills (SD)

Shane O’Brien (SF)

Ossian Smyth (GP)*

Mairéad Tóibín (Aon)

Cathy Lynch (Ind)

Barry Ward (FG)

i expect RBB, jennifer soon to be carroll alone and cormac devlin all to be returned. devlin and RBB on the strength of their constituency work and JCM on the basis of being the usual FG vote getter. i can see ossian losing out, the question then is who takes the last seat. speculation that JCM could take barry ward with her but i dont see it seeing as he finished below mary mitchell last time out and theres still anger at his 10k masters while a councillor.

probably a bun fight between smyth, hugo, ward and lynch for the last seat. ward gets it if he gets devlin transfers but im going to take a swing at hugo getting the last seat.

308

Agreed about the first three - particularly if FF are running a one candidate strategy this time.

FG had 33% of the vote the last time - almost 2 quotas and managed to turn that into only one seat. Id say there’s a good chance here that they get two. Prob depends upon the order of elimination and transfers between Gr/SD/Lab. I’d say it’ll be FG and GR nip and tuck for the last seat

309

Ivan Yeats has started his constituency profiles on Newstalk, RTE have done similar.

Donnelly is odd in in Wicklow
Would not be surprised in slightest if the electorate vote him OUT OUT OUT

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310

Galway West signing in

My predictions*

  1. G Seoige - Despite a serious amount of dismay from prospective voters I think there’s too little inward reflection from the crucial late 40’s to early 70’s demographic that might’ve had a wank to her on the tele in 2004-2007ish. She has had multiple horrific stories doing the rounds about how massive a bitch she is canvassing but it won’t be enough to dissuade the brainwashed FFG masses out West. Would be delighted to see her miss out.
  2. N Grealish - Probably anecdotally the most popular candidate on the ballot. “A vote for Noeleen is a vote for the ring road” seems to be the consensus. Played just the right notes over the Ukrainian refugee situation to be deemed a sound Independent. I think he’ll benefit big from anti-FFG protest votes.
  3. H Naughton - The Connacht rubby redevelopment was a big win for Naughers in the mind of the yuppie voter. She seems to be primarily running on “affordable accomodation” but would be seen as an extremely soft touch in delivering on promises. The blueshirt vote will see her over the line.

Shock wins:

  1. J Connolly - Looks after his own and has less sneering about him than Gráinne. FF are doing serious work locally to try get two seats this time. The Connemara voter won’t want to see the Ó Cuív seat getting lost.
  2. M Cubbard - This is my big call. Cubster probably has the most recent rise in goodwill, anecdotally specifically in the Knocknacarra/Rahoon/Westside area. He’s taken the very popular “fuck those Dublin cunts” stance this election which will be decisive in tipping Farrell out imo. His refusal to erect posters is impressing plenty. A two-fingers to FFG without having to vote Noel Thomas.

I don’t think SF have done anywhere near enough to secure the Farrell seat.

*A prediction is by no means an endorsement

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311

Waterford
4 Seats

The list of candidates. An asterisk indicates a sitting TD.

Mary Butler, Fianna Fáil *

Matt Shanahan, Independent*

David Cullinane, Sinn Féin*

Marc Ó Cathasaigh, Green Party*

John Cummins, Fine Gael

Conor McGuinness, Sinn Féin

Mary Roche, Social Democrats

Sadhbh O’Neill, Labour

Patrick Curtin, People Before Profit

Aaron Joyce, Irish Freedom Party

John Walsh, Irish People

Frank Conway, Independent

Killian Mangan, Independent

A thiarna déan trocaire. What a fucking list of useless cunts. And locals wonder why Waterford never get Cabinet ministers. Big Davy “Up the Ra” Cullinane had the world at his feet 4 years ago until he went all “Up the Ra” on us.
The big local issue is the airport. A bunch of shysters - the Comers and Billy Bolster bought the airport for a song and want the government to pony up €12m to extend the runway so that we can have one flight a week to Luton in a big plane instead of one flight a week to Luton in a small plane. The Government (not unreasonably) pointed out (a) that’s not much of a business plan and (b) there’s two international airports 2 hours by road in either direction. I’d say the Comer/Bolsters (all property developers) couldn’t give a fuck about flights to Luton and are going through the motions here before they say the airport is a dead duck, can we have a planning permission for a property play please.

Other than that Cummins (who has the head of a scheming cunt and a large frontage of forehead) will take O Cathasaighs seat and it will be
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Ind.

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312

FG lost their second seat last time because of Smyth.

FF not running two candidates means Devlin should get in easily (I find it funny that you have the likes of the Phoenix say he is under threat). A lot of his transfers will end up with Smyth and Ward. Ultimately Smyth could he undone by the soft left vote leaving the Greens, but hopefully he still gets in.

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313

There will be a big townie vote for Cubbard. But I think he will lose out to the crusty vote in town, ie Catherine Connolly. They could dilute themselves, but I would fancy Connolly to hold her seat. Seoige might not get the transfers. She already appears to be a bit of a marmite candidate. This could backfire on FF.

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314

Can’t believe there isn’t a candidate called Power for the Waterford electorate to vote for! At least there’s a Walsh (Welch) on the ballot.

315

Longford Westmeath, outgoing Burke FG, Troy FF, Clarke SF all Mullingar based and O’Flaherty FF Longford.

This now has an extra seat and the 1st 3 seats are easy to call, Troy, Burke and Boxer Moran in Athlone, he basically has Athlone to himself with only token candidates from FF and FG and former SF councillor Paul Hogan who is running for Independent Ireland.

Clarke has had a very low profile but should hold on despite SFs dismal showing in WH in the locals, SF have a sweeper candidate in LD but they were miles off winning a council seat in the local elections. Realistically the final seat should go down to between O Flaherty and Carriggy FG in LD, with O Flaherty tipped to hold on.

There will be no one else in the shake up, Labours vote has literally vanished since Penrose and there are no Green, SocDem or Aontu councillors across either county.

So I’m going with 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 Independent.

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316

Grim

317

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1856444001043259622?t=R3EvqaR5Yq-x11HeGGVheQ&s=19

318

Lucan Harriers’ track. I used to run around there when it was gravel.

319

I see the Green party hace a specific section on the website on feminism. I would have thought SF and SD would have similar but no.
I can’t vote but Green’s would have gotten my vote in Limk along with SD. Two candidates are doses though but if it kept FF FG out so be it. The fact Leddin apparently voted against sanctions for Israel would mean he would not make the cut. An absolute dose too by all accounts.

320

Dublin South West:
Crowe (SF) will top the poll and have a big surplus. Brophy (FG) and Lahart (FF) look comfortable for seats 2 and 3.

SF did not run a second candidate here in 2020 and that saved Paul Murphy. I think he’s in trouble here this time. I don’t think there’s a second seat for FF or FG.

Last two seats I’d say are between Murphy, the second SF candidate Niamh Whelan, Ciaran Ahern of Labour and Paddy Holohan. I don’t see Duffy of the Green Party hanging onto his seat.

Ahern did well here last time against the tide and I think with five more years of name recognition has a good shot.

I’ll go with Ahern to get the green left seat and the second SF candidate to just nudge out Murphy.


Labour Ciarán Ahern
Fine Gael Sarah Barnes
Fine Gael Colm Brophy[*]
Fianna Fáil Teresa Costello
Sinn Féin Seán Crowe[*]
Green Francis Noel Duffy[*]
Independent Alan Edge
Independent Paddy Holohan
Fianna Fáil John Lahart[*]
National Party Yan Mac Oireachtaigh
PBP–Solidarity Paul Murphy[*][a]
Aontú Saoirse Ní Chónaráin
Social Democrats Ross O’Mullane
Sinn Féin Niamh Whelan