She’s opened up a bit of a gap off the Aontú transfers.
Advantage Troy now, you’d have to say.
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I don’t see the Aontu candidate getting in.
Coppinger definitely gets in.
I’d be leaning more towards Labour than Rod at this point for the final seat with the caveat of there being a slight possibility of SF2’s transfers pushing the Soc Dem candidate ahead of the Labour candidate which would put the Soc Dem candidate in the frame for the seat.
But I think the SF transfers largely go to Coppinger and the Labour candidate becomes the challenger to Rod or perhaps blitzes the Aontu candidate in the final run off.
I just don’t think Rod gets enough transfers to get in.
That Eoin Hayes SD lad had a quirky campaign video.
https://twitter.com/eoin_hayes/status/1856330279926870316?s=46&t=0sQkcb7z4szDmx1-2Xlm0w
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As I type those SF transfers in Dublin West have been distributed and they have pushed Aontu further ahead of Rod.
Situation now is:
Rod is 478 ahead of John Walsh Labour.
My sense is the Soc Dem-Labour transfer pipeline is more reliable than Soc Dem-Green but again a lot of those 3094 votes could go to Coppinger.
Whoever is eliminated between O’Gorman and Walsh will then probably elect the other for the last seat. The Aontu candidate has no serious source of transfers remaining.
The next count will likely determine who is elected.
I wouldn’t call that done.
Jim O’Callaghan has an 1800 surplus and it can only go to either Hayes Soc Dem or Andrews SF.
496 is the gap.
You’d wonder whether Andrews being ex-FF could swing things in his favour.
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I thought it was Bacik’s surplus to go. If it’s O’Callaghan’s, there’s more of a chance.
What’s the story with this Fleming fella in Rathdown? Would he transfer more favourably from Greens than FF?
Catherine Martin gone but SDs have transferred really well from SF and moved ahead of FF.
Bacik was elected on count 9, O’Callaghan on count 10 so it’s O’Callaghan’s surplus to be distributed on Count 11. That’s a very hard one to call because of the Andrews FF connection.
Gibney Soc Dem is home and hosed in Rathdown.
Fleming is a sort of small business populist type independent and I would think Martin’s transfers will keep Brennan FF and O’Connell FG ahead of Fleming for the other two remaining seats because of the previous government connection.
Gibney will likely have a surplus to distribute between O’Connell, Brennan and Fleming.
Quinlivan’s surplus now in Limerick. Still too tight to call.
Would Elisa do better off Dee Ryan transfers? Maybe a female vote? Then again, Sheehan did better off Maria Byrne than O’Donovan
This kinda happened.
Quinlivan passed the quota, has 801 of a surplus.
She kept roughly in line with the rest. The gap is 81 between herself & Sheehan. And she’s 204 ahead of Ryan.
Any chance that Ryan would transfer more to her than Sheehan?
Notwithstanding Quinlivan’s surplus I think the Aontu transfers will take Ryan FF ahead of O’Donovan Soc Dem, then O’Donovan’s transfers will elect Sheehan comfortably.
We already had the Aontú transfers, they were what elected Quinlivan.
I’d still fancy Sheehan to take it from here but maybe a female vote as Cauli said?
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Those are going to Labour but seems to be not quite enough to push past O’Gorman.
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Fionan reckons Rod will get it
Walsh getting more transfers but not that mucj more
I have had active travel.dealings with walsh, he is really good
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Dara Calleary was interviewed on the radio earlier and he was saying what a great election it was for FF and how they had done a great job etc. The interviewer pointed out it is the second worst FF result in a general election of all time.
How the mighty have fallen
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Is it really?
It looks to be better than last time and surely 2011 was worse? Would it not be third-worst?
They got more first preference votes last time. Think it was based off that
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O’Gorman stays ahead. Walsh eliminated. O’Gorman needs to make up 197 on the Aontu candidate. He should easily do that.
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Marginally worse than 2020 in percentage terms
So O’Gorman needs enough from Walsh (4,039) to push him ahead of Troy (197 gap) or else Coppinger to be elected (1,033 off) and get more off her surplus. Or both.
Fairly tight margins I would think but slightly favouring him?