Official TFK Irish General Election 2024

[Rocko]

@Rocko

@Cheasty

Rod is 478 ahead of John Walsh Labour.

My sense is the Soc Dem-Labour transfer pipeline is more reliable than Soc Dem-Green but again a lot of those 3094 votes could go to Coppinger.

Whoever is eliminated between O’Gorman and Walsh will then probably elect the other for the last seat. The Aontu candidate has no serious source of transfers remaining.

The next count will likely determine who is elected.

Those are going to Labour but seems to be not quite enough to push past O’Gorman.

O’Gorman staying in front of Walsh

[Aristotle]

Fair enough.

They should get a decent bit more seats this time. Very unlikely they get under 40 at this point.

[cluaindiuic]

SocDem Stephenson has leapfrogged up the list ahead of 2xFG.

Aontu votes being redistributed. Fitzgerald, Doyle and Stephenson need some votes to avoid being eliminated.

[Aristotle]

Hayes beats Andrews!

Not a good one for SF.

[caulifloweredneanderthal]

There’s more seats there this time though.

[caulifloweredneanderthal]

Soc Dems are having a very decent election in fairness. Considering their two former co-leaders have retired and all. Even better, it looks like their other founder is set to go out the cunt!

[Aristotle]

True!

That is a factor but, even still, they are likely to have more of a margin seats-wise over FG & SF than they did last time out. They will pick up a decent amount of those extra seats.

[Rocko]

@Aristotle

So O’Gorman needs enough from Walsh (4,039) to push him ahead of Troy (197 gap) or else Coppinger to be elected (1,033 off) and get more off her surplus. Or both.

Fairly tight margins I would think but slightly favouring him?

Just needs to stay ahead of Walsh. I believe he has. Neither will transfer to Aontú so one elects the other.

[Cheasty]

@Aristotle

Hayes beats Andrews!

Not a good one for SF.

Remarkable transfers. In that there were hardly any of them.

Out of 1794 votes in O’Callaghan’s surplus, only 299 were transferable. Andrews only got 36 of them!

[tallback]

Is Shay Brennan or even Maeve O’Connell def safe in Rathdown? 600-800 ahead of Fleming but 5K of Catherine Martin to distribute. A lot will go Soc Dem you’d imagine but …

[Cheasty]

Stephenson needs to get ahead of Newsome Drennan SF after FG 3 is eliminated. If she does she has a chance. She might be eliminated after FG3’s transfers are distributed though.

Last seat is between Cleere FF, Fitzgerald FG and Stephenson Soc Dem.

[Cheasty]

@tallback

Is Shay Brennan or even Maeve O’Connell def safe in Rathdown? 600-800 ahead of Fleming but 5K of Catherine Martin to distribute. A lot will go Soc Dem you’d imagine but …

I’d say out of 5881 of Martin’s transfers, 3-4k will go to Gibney.

[tallback]

@Cheasty

@tallback

Is Shay Brennan or even Maeve O’Connell def safe in Rathdown? 600-800 ahead of Fleming but 5K of Catherine Martin to distribute. A lot will go Soc Dem you’d imagine but …

I’d say out of 5881 of Martin’s transfers, 3-4k will go to Gibney.

That leaves 1-2k to transfer on?

[cluaindiuic]

Still very open. Doyle could do well off Aontu based on geography.

O’Neill is Piltown and Doyle I think is Inistioge.

[Cheasty]

I think if say 3k of Martin’s transfers go to Gibney, a lot of the rest will either not transfer or go to the FF/FG candidates, certainly enough to keep them ahead.

[Chancer]

Siun Nic Gearailt looking fair well there on Vóta on TG4.
53 - by God!!!

[Cheasty]

@cluaindiuic

Still very open. Doyle could do well off Aontu based on geography.

Which candidate is which county?

Murnane O’Connor - Carlow
McGuinness - KK
Callaghan - Carlow?
Gladney Knox - Carlow?
Cleere - KK
Newsome Drennan - KK?
Fitzgerald?
Doyle?
Stephenson?

[Midshipman_Asha]

Fitzgerald is KK, City based
Doyle is KK, from the South
Stephenson is KK, Castlecomer, I think

[cluaindiuic]

Bottom 3 all kk

[YellowBib]

Just one Eoin O’Broin in DMW