Not sure where we’ve been posting our in-depth analysis of opinion polls since the last election so will set up a new thread.
Huge gains for Sinn Féin in the latest poll out while FF are taking a hit and Labour remain on a low footing after disappointing their voters since getting into power.
FG 32% (up 2)
SF 25% (up 4)
FF 16% (down 4)
Labour 10% (down 1)
Indies 15%
Gerry Adams is also the most popular leader, though all suffered a drop since the last poll.
That’s quite a bit of daylight between SF and FF and will be interesting to see if SF can consolidate and retain a hope of getting into government. I’m sure they’re working on attracting new candidates to try and capitalise on their broader appeal now. There’s still an awful lot of support for Independent candidates too.
That makes awful reading for Labour. A long way to go to the next election of course, but it’s hard to see how they get more popular between now and then. Every Budget will be bad news for their numbers. To an extent, FG are more protected from this because their natural electorate is more comfortable with the concept of austerity than Labour’s. They’ll start to feel the heat eventually though.
It’s a huge number for SF. They seem to be benefiting most from the inevitable anti-government swing, though I’d like to know how many of those Others are ULA. They should really be identified separately at this stage. You’re right to identify the importance of candidates for SF Rocko. In our electoral system, you need strong individual candidates to take full advantage of a national swing towards you. What will make it slightly harder for them in this respect is that the local elections will be coming later in the life of this Dáil than it has in the last couple. The councillors that FG got elected in 2004 formed a strong backbone for their strong showing in 2007. Next local elections will only be 18 months at most before the general election.
I think before the election Labour were seen as being protectors of the public sector to some extent. Since the election they have done terribly in this regard and government looks very much to be leaning to the right with agenda on cuts rather than taxes. Likes of Shorthall and Burton are ideologically good but are seen as very weak with Reilly and Noonan very much bossing both. Must say I have been very impressed with performance of Mary Lou McDonald in particular. Found her grating previously but she has done very well in recent weeks. Articulate speaker. I don’t believe they are quite as high as 25%. Probably around 22/23%. That is a considerable vote but considering the lack of media balance they will be doing very well to build on that support.
FF still regarded as toxic by most voters. They have not been helped by lots of internal dissension, Martin will be doing very well to get to the next election as leader.
SF have improved enormously as media performers and if they can attract some decent candidates they will overtake FF in being the largest opposition party. (Was going to say the main opposition party but they are already that).
Dublin (3 seats)
Lynn Boylan SF 23%
Brian Hayes FG 22%
Mary Fitzpartrick FF 12%
Eamonn Ryan GP 10%
Emer Costello Lab 9%
Nessa Childers Ind 8%
Brid Smith PPP 7%
Paul Murphy SP 6%
The last two left-wing candidates will transfer to eachother and might pick up something from Lynn Boylan, depending on when people get eliminated. That’s a particularly poor score from Labour - Dublin would always have been their strongest area and they’re miles behind Sinn Féin. Of course their response seems to be to attack SF instead of wonderiny why their centrist policies aren’t picking up votes from the left anymore. Big battle on for the third seat beyween Eamonn Ryan, Emer Costello, Mary Fitzpatrick and Nessa Childers.
South (4 seats)
Brian Cowley FF 31%
Liah Ní Riada SF 19%
Sean Kelly FG 13%
Deirdre Clune FG 8%
Simon Harris FG 7%
Grace O’Sullivan GP 6%
Phil Prendergast Lab 6%
Kieran Hartley FF 2%
Crowley and Ni Riada will get in here. Then Kelly will get in with transfers and last one will be between Clune and O’Sullivan with Clune probably getting a second FG seat.
Midlands North West (34seats)
Mairead McGuinness FG 18%
Matt Carthy SF 15%
Pat the cope Gallagher FF 12%
Luke Ming Flanagan Ind 12%
Marian Harkin Ind 10%
Jim Higgins FG 9%
Lorraine Higgins Lab 8%
Thomas Byrne FF 8%
McGuinness is safe. Carthy should have enough too. Last two seats between Gallagher, Flanagan, Jim Higgins and Marian Harkin.
Irish Sun Red C Poll
Fine Gael 25%
Sinn Féin 20%
Fianna Fáil 20%
Labour 8%
Independents 24%
Irish Independent Millward Brown Poll
Sinn Féin 23%
Fianna Fáil 21%
Fine Gael 20%
Labour 6%
Independents 27%
Disappointed Paul Murphy rates so low, he has been very impressive whenever I’ve seen him with a far better grasp of numbers and European policy than most other candidates.
He doesn’t come across well on tv though. Moan, moan and moan some more. Blame FF, blame FG, blame Labour - he just sounds like any of the other loons who are against everything even though he’d do a far better job than any of them.
Ireland South MEP candidates debate on RTE tonight.
[QUOTE=“dodgy-keeper, post: 946519, member: 1552”]He doesn’t come across well on tv though. Moan, moan and moan some more. Blame FF, blame FG, blame Labour - he just sounds like any of the other loons who are against everything even though he’d do a far better job than any of them.
Ireland South MEP candidates debate on RTE tonight.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=“dodgy-keeper, post: 946519, member: 1552”]He doesn’t come across well on tv though. Moan, moan and moan some more. Blame FF, blame FG, blame Labour - he just sounds like any of the other loons who are against everything even though he’d do a far better job than any of them.
Ireland South MEP candidates debate on RTE tonight.[/QUOTE]
I haven’t seen him recently but last time I saw him on Vinnie B he made shit of the FF, FG and labour reps -most impressively he backed up everything he had to say with figures.
