in a similar manner to celebrity deaths. time for a comp to see whos the top political tipster here.
the rules are simple:
pick 3 politicians that you think will lose their seat in the upcoming election. people can pick the same selections as other posters.
2 points for a sitting minister
1 point for a govt back bencher
2 points for an opposition politician
3 points for a sitting party leader
my three:
Eoghan Murphy
Regina Doherty
Roisin Shortall
Kevin “Boxer” Moran.
Noel Rock.
Kathleen Funchion.
I expect Murphy and Doherty to lose alright. Shortall will get back in comfortably I expect.
Stephen Donnelly and Shane Ross are under serious threat in my view. Ross’s vote will likely be much reduced but he may just hang on. Donnelly was already on a very sticky wicket having switched parties but his performance on Claire Byrne Live last week was dreadful and has damaged him. I think he’ll lose.
I’d keep an eye too on Donegal, Pat The Cope Gallagher was said by a local poll to be in trouble but I think it’s Fine Gael’s Joe McHugh who could lose unexpectedly. Donegal is a funny constituency and trends there tend to be amplified, so if Fine Gael do badly nationally they’ll struggle a lot there.
Three against the field:
Eoghan Murphy
Regina Doherty
Stephen Donnelly
That’s 4, pal.
Does this follow the RTE criteria for party leaders, ie. Peadar Toibin doesn’t count?
yrep, tobin wouldnt count as hes a one seat party
Regina Doherty
Noel Rock
Stephen Donnelly
Eoghan Murphy
Kathleen Funchion
Jan O’Sullivan
Noel Rock
Shane Ross
Eoin/Owen/Eoghan/Oh Han Murphy
Shane Ross
Peadar Toibin
Regina Doherty
Edited, cheers.
Ross
Donnelly
Boyd Barrett
Don’t think Murphy will lose his seat. Lucinda Creighton has left a big vote behind here which the new Renua candidate won’t pick up.
Looking through the names here , I will loosely quote @Tassotti. - “ you get a better class of Portillo moment on the mainland
From 1997 to 2011 there were two (broadly) left seats in the four seat Dublin South East. 2016 bucked the trend and returned two FG and one FF but I think it could switch back this time.
Regina Doherty
Paul Kehoe
Shane Ross
@artfoley the categories used do not cover FF in the supply & confidence arrangement, being neither govt nor opposition
officially, the government of the 31st dail is made up of blueshirts and madcaps. FF have no junior or senior ministers and, although they are playing both sides, they are officially the opposition.
my ruling stands
I think Humpreys has a great chance, don’t get me wrong.
I think you’re overegging it though.
Quinn was an old school champagne socialist who appealed across the board, more so in 1997 after his stint as finance minister which was seen as relatively successful. Gormley appealed to those who could afford to not care about matters economic.
Dublin Bay South is volatile with a habit of getting rid of high-profile names (McDowell, Creighton etc) but given the candidates running I think there’s a reasonably high chance there’ll be no change this time (2FG, 1FF, 1 GP). FF aren’t running an additional candidate and I think Labour/SF could split a left working class vote (the poolbegs, ring send etc).
Chris Andrews also soaks in some local loyalty over party.
It’s an unusual constituency all round, I don’t think it’s correct to put it in as a standard two seat left wing constituency.
I’d expect a lot of that floating vote to go to Fianna Fail. Jim O’Callaghan has shown well since 2016 - he’s a big contender for next leader - and will romp back in, as will Eamon Ryan. Fine Gael will definitely pick up one seat, but I think it will be O’Connell. She’s liberal and was prominent on the abortion issue, she’s bright and she’s attractive and she hasn’t been tainted with incompetence like Murphy has. Murphy won’t get a huge whack of transfers and if O’Connell gets ahead of him she won’t have much of a surplus to distribute. I’d guess it will come down to a battle between Murphy and Humphreys for the last seat with SF transfers pushing Humphreys ahead. Of course if Sinn Fein’s national vote does increase as current polls are indicating, that means Chris Andrews could well be in the hunt himself. The Social Democrats polled respectably here last time but will likely collapse this time and a lot of that vote will probably go to Humphreys so it’s not all one way as regards cannibalising votes.