Portillo moments: GE 2020

tallback · January 27, 2020, 12:59pm

Dziekanowski:

Tim_Riggins:

I think Humpreys has a great chance, don’t get me wrong.

I think you’re overegging it though.

Quinn was an old school champagne socialist who appealed across the board, more so in 1997 after his stint as finance minister which was seen as relatively successful. Gormley appealed to those who could afford to not care about matters economic.

I’d expect a lot of that floating vote to go to Fianna Fail. Jim O’Callaghan has shown well since 2016 - he’s a big contender for next leader - and will romp back in, as will Eamon Ryan. Fine Gael will definitely pick up one seat, but I think it will be O’Connell. She’s liberal and was prominent on the abortion issue, she’s bright and she’s attractive and she hasn’t been tainted with incompetence like Murphy has. Murphy won’t get a huge whack of transfers and if O’Connell gets ahead of him she won’t have much of a surplus to distribute. I’d guess it will come down to a battle between Murphy and Humphreys for the last seat with SF transfers pushing Humphreys ahead. Of course if Sinn Fein’s national vote does increase as current polls are indicating, that means Chris Andrews could well be in the hunt himself. The Social Democrats polled respectably here last time but will likely collapse this time and a lot of that vote will probably go to Humphreys so it’s not all one way as regards cannibalising votes.

It’s possible that’s the way it goes - like you said I’d see Ryan and O’Callaghan safe in any event. Where do you see the 4 thousand odd votes that went to Lucinda last time (similar vote amounts as O’Callaghan, Humphries and Ryan) going this time - that could be pivotal

Tim_Riggins · January 27, 2020, 1:01pm

Didn’t you say that Andrews would get elected last time Sidney?

tallback · January 27, 2020, 1:04pm

Interestingly last time, of Creighton votes:

1/3rd went to Murphy and O’Connell (i.e. FG vote returning home), 20% went to Eamon Ryan and 20% went to FF (hardline catholics I suppose).

Even more interesting, when Chris Andrews was eliminated - only 11% of his vote went to Kevin Humphries with a quarter going to Eamon Ryan. That might have improved a bit this time now that labour aren’t in gov but it’s still very low

anon61878697 · January 27, 2020, 1:05pm

Ross
Donnelly
Doherty

Tim_Riggins · January 27, 2020, 1:06pm

The biggest share of her vote will go back to FG.

Her campaign manager is a FG councillor in the area now.

Dziekanowski · January 27, 2020, 1:06pm

I think a lot could go to O’Callaghan actually. Some will revert to Fine Gael alright but if that vote was willing to desert them in the first place it shouldn’t be presumed it will automatically revert to them in large numbers. Michael McDowell would have had a big chance here had he run.

Bandage · January 27, 2020, 1:08pm

Is Stephen Donnelly losing his seat a genuine possibility? That would be glorious.

Tim_Riggins · January 27, 2020, 1:08pm

Except that they picked up the most amount of her votes last time and a lot of her old crew are back in the FG tent.

In my opinion it will go 30-40% back to FG, 25-30% to Ryan, 20% to JOC and the rest will stick with the Renua candidate.

tallback · January 27, 2020, 1:11pm

Maybe - but I think your theory that SF transfers will automatically sweep Humphries over, or vice-versa - shouldn’t be presumed either.

flattythehurdler · January 27, 2020, 1:18pm

I’m voting with my heart here.
Shane Ross
Shane Ross
Shane Ross

Oh, and miggledy higgleddy piggledy.

Tank · January 27, 2020, 1:20pm

Ross
Donnelly
Doherty

Dziekanowski · January 27, 2020, 1:21pm

I think a fall in the Fine Gael vote in general could more than offset any gains from Creighton’s vote returning to them. And within that Fine Gael vote, the split between Murphy and O’Connell is crucial. If O’Connell cannibalises some of Murphy’s vote, which I think is likely, Murphy could be in big trouble, and he won’t be able to rely on FG transfers because O’Connell would likely just scrape over the quota. Where he could benefit is if Andrews gets ahead of Humphreys as Labour may still transfer well to enough to FG.

cluaindiuic · January 27, 2020, 1:22pm

Are the Greens running two candidates in any constituencies?

Domhnach_Cearnach · January 27, 2020, 1:26pm

(Hopefully) Zappone
Eoghan Murphy
Hildegarde Naughton

anon67715551 · January 27, 2020, 1:26pm

Isn’t there a thread for discussion and opinions on this general election?
I’ve checked, there is. Take your rationale and opinions off over there.

Stick to selecting 3 losers in this thread.

dodgy_keeper · January 27, 2020, 1:31pm

Ruth Coppinger.
Noel Rock.
Shane Ross.

anon67715551 · January 27, 2020, 1:34pm

What an epic treble. My blood-pressure has soared in anticipation. Even a single would do.

Edit… I know, I couldn’t resist it.

Tim_Riggins · January 27, 2020, 1:38pm

Murphy controls Ranelagh whilst she gets Rathmines. Not much has changed there since 2016. Murphy surrendered thousands of votes last time to get her ahead of Creighton. I get that they’ve now given her profile and that counts for a lot, but so does territory and being an incumbent.

I accept that FG could see their share fall, but they actually already lost a good % in 2016 with Creighton there, which they will be the largest beneficiaries of.

farmerinthecity · January 27, 2020, 2:28pm

Paschal Donohue
Katherine Zappone
Joan Burton

glasagusban · January 27, 2020, 2:34pm

Is Burton under threat? How about Howlin? Labour would do well to be shot of them. How about zappone?