Keeping pubs closed
The data used to justify the continued closure of pubs, compiled for the government by EY Consultancy, was published over the weekend. This is an extremely important document as it will be used to justify the governmentâs decision for the foreseeable future. Itâs for that reason we are studying the document in detail and will issue a strong rebuttal of the findings this week.
In the meantime, our initial analysis of the data is as follows:
The EY data states that when âwetâ pubs opened on 21st September there was an increase in the number of people infected exactly 10 days later. Dublin, where âwetâ pubs never opened, did not experience such an increase so Government said this was proof âwetâ pubs were to blame.
This is flawed logic for a number of reasons.
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The opening of wet pubs was not an isolated event. Students returned to university cities at the same time and county finals took place all over the country.
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The growth in those counties with universities was three times the rate in non-university counties. We know that students are not major frequenters of pubs.
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The data states the growth in the infection rate in Dublin is 33% lower than in other counties. Dublin went up by 2 cases per day per 100,000 of population on the 14 day average. The rest of the country went up by 3. Is I case per 100,000 per day sufficient to put 25,000 jobs in danger? Itâs also important to remember that Dublin went into Level Three lockdown on 18th September (closing indoor food establishments) so that could explain why the rate of infection was not as pronounced in Dublin â the capital was in a stricter level than the rest of the country for the period EY is analysing.
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They picked out 3 counties â Meath, Cavan and Galway. In each of the 26 counties there would have been about 6 county finals between football and hurling. That adds up to just over 150 county finals and there are 2 teams (losers also drown their sorrows). We have to put our hands up and say that in some instances pubs did not meet the standards required but it was a very small number. I know in one of those counties the big celebrations were in a Registered Club. But we all know the vast majority of celebrations took place in private house. We know of major celebrations in shebeens including one that went very public and was closed by the GardaĂ. We also know of one where the only pub in the village and sponsor of the team actually closed his premises from Friday to Tuesday to ensure safety.
As mentioned, this is the initial analysis. We will be pushing back hard on this report over the coming days and will keep you fully informed of progress.
Pubs re-opening this Friday
It is the responsibility of FĂĄilte Ireland to publish the reopening guidelines. We spoke to them today and the message is they hope to have the guidelines published tomorrow but itâs likely to be Wednesday.
As things stand, we know the following:
- The food must be prepared on site inside the premises
- You can have up to 6 people at a table from up to 6 households
- The âŹ9 rule still applies
- No live or loud music
- Face masks must be worn by staff
- The same social distancing rules as previously
- Opening/closing time remains the same (11.30pm closing)
We are seeking urgent clarity about kitchens: how will a kitchen be defined for the purposes of the guidelines etc.
