I don’t disagree on the measures working on capacity. I never said otherwise, I was just saying why some people say we’re past the peak.
On Sweden, they’ve seen growth 3 days in a row again after a period of decline, which follows their pattern - they’ve gone up by > 150 in 2 days. They’ve had peaks and troughs, which would suggest it very much isn’t under control. Cases and deaths grow exponentially and are time delineated, they have no control over it.
I thought his comment back at the outset to the effect of it being a harmless touch of the flu was said with tongue firmly in cheek and while quoting an article outlining how serious it was?
In deaths or cases?
Their case percentage growth rate is falling.
They’ve just had their highest daily death total.
Nope. Keep covering for him though, I’m sure he’ll be nicer next time when doxxing the site.
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So death toll.
Deaths follow cases.
I take that as tongue firmly in cheek. I guess it suits you to take it literally.
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Not necessarily. The USA has a remarkably high number of cases and a relatively low number of deaths to cases.
Deaths are related to the measures taken and the state of the healthcare system, not the number of cases
It’s a highly contagious virus with a limited testing scope. Cases are higher than reported everywhere.
Well you made it up that he was quoting an article, so we all know that you’re just back to tickling him on here.
Mate you were going on about 200 deaths being a kick off point a couple of weeks ago. Let’s go easy on the predictions.
Sweden are testing more and more and their cases are coming down. They are also still protecting the vulnerable where possible, it’s not like they did nothing.
There’s no evidence that they are going to need to lockdown for harder than other countries.
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There’ll be more purple and gold crokes jerseys to be seen in the southeast this July and August than wexford ones… Mark my words…
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Tickling him on here. 
You’re just being weird by taking the words literally.
On you go.
We had our first death on March 13th. It took until April 8th to go above 200 deaths (210). In a week our deaths have almost doubled to 406. So we’ve gone from almost a month to almost a week in recording 200 deaths. We’ve effectively doubled in a week. That’s a kick off
Within a day or two of posting this we saw our biggest jump in deaths of 36, that’s since gone up to 41
This is what our trajectory looks like now (it looks good but not as flat as South Koreas)
Nonessential workers should be re lassed as expendable workers. It’ll make the notion of sending them back to work much more sellable.
You said exponential. It hasn’t be exponential.
Italy had 1,200 deaths within a week of hitting 197 and were not counting nursing home deaths.
It just hasn’t happened like you predicted it would.
You can’t be making those sorts of predictions without looking at the other stats out there.
It has been exponential. We have doubled our deaths in a week. I never predicted an Italy type situation, I just said we’d see what our situation would look like (better than Italy, worse than South Korea) which is what you’d expect given the relative handling of the situation in each place
You don’t get to decide what I predict. I was comparing us to other countries, not predicting what our outcome would be. Now that our trajectory looks flatter I would confidently predict that we won’t see an outcome like Italy, given the parameters remain the same
It really hasn’t based on who you compared to.
Since hitting 210, it’s been 25, 33, 25, 32, 14, 31 and 41. This hasn’t “come off the floor” as you predicted.
As I pointed out then, you had to consider the geographic cluster there, the relative tests rates at the time and other factors that made a like for like comparison impossible.
it has come off the floor, you can see the trajectory of the graph relative to Italy.
We doubled our deaths in a week mate, we had more deaths in that week than we had in a month.
You can see on the graph relative to Italy, our trajectory looks flatter, which is what you would have hoped for and expected given the measures. Again I never made a prediction on the number of deaths, I said that our trajectory would be revealed at this scale.
I’m comparing one variable, I’m purposely excluding all other variables as they are too noisy and inconsistent. I’d do ICU but I can’t get data relative to each country
If we can continue to keep that trajectory relatively flat, then that would be a really encouraging sign
This 3 week period is huge