Road to Nowhere 2018

[mickee321]

@Sidney

I wouldn’t count out the Dutch just yet. They’re only three points behind second placed Sweden and have Sweden and Bulgaria at home to come, although they also have to go to France.

But they are the biggest name in real trouble.

The rest of the qualification groups are nothing to write home about. The main points of interest are which of Spain or Italy wins Group G, and the various second place races. Spain and Italy meet again in Spain on September 2nd.

Poland already look home and hosed in Group E with a six point lead.

At the moment I’d be calling the group winners as follows:
A: France (almost certainly)
B: Portugal (have a bit to do as Switzerland currently have a 3 point advantage)
C: Germany (certain)
D: Serbia (all to play for)
E: Poland (comfortably)
F: England (certain)
G: Spain (just, from Italy)
H: Belgium (they still have to go to Greece but I expect them to do enough)
I: Croatia (almost certainly)

I’d be calling the runners-up spots as follows:
A: Holland (still think they might do it)
B: Switzerland
C: Ireland
D: Eire
E: Armenia (this is wide open but I’ve a sneaky feeling for them as they tend to improve as qualifying groups go on)
F: Scotland (again, wide open but 3 of remaining 5 fixtures at home)
G: Italy
H: Greece
I: Turkey (suspect they could dig it out in another wide open race)

Of those second placed teams, I’d expect Scotland or Armenia to be the ones to miss out on a play-off. Both Irish teams should have plenty to get into a play-off if they finish second.

In the other continental races, Chile and Australia are in serious battles to qualify.

Nigeria, Cameroon and Algeria are in a group of death in Africa. Only one can qualify. Nigeria have a significant advantage on the other two after two games. No more action here until September.

Ghana look toast and Egypt look like they’ll finally qualify for another World Cup at their expense.

The USA made a terrible start to their group campaign but turned it around in spectacular fashion at the weekend with a 6-0 win over Honduras. With seven games left they should do more than enough over the rest of the campaign.

excellent post,
ill expand on that later, the return to form of Greece is a welcome addition
another team who are excelling post Ranieri

[backinatracksuit]

@Bandage

Any other elements of the Good Friday Agreement you’d like to see amended, mate?

I wouldn’t ever suggest such a thing mate. My post would put the onus on the player to do the right thing in these enlightened times rather than making anachronistic political points.

[Little_Lord_Fauntleroy]

What brought this post on mate?

[backinatracksuit]

I was bored and thought it’d get a few bites.
Then @Bandage started getting all serious and putting words in my mouth

[balbec]

I wouldn’t fancy Armenia. Reckon Denmark will come second. It’s a weak group.

[Julio_Geordio]

@Sidney

I wouldn’t count out the Dutch just yet. They’re only three points behind second placed Sweden and have Sweden and Bulgaria at home to come, although they also have to go to France.

The Dutch also have to contend with the fact that they only have 4 points in the second place table, which would place them joint bottom (if they they were in second). They’ll get 3 from Luxembourg (which won’t count) & 3 from Belarus, they’ve to play Sweden, France and Bulgaria then, they’d be happy/doing well with 6 from that you’d imagine. That’d be 13 points, which if the second half of the groups played out similarly, would be right at the foot of the table so wouldn’t leave much margin for error.

[Sidney]

@Julio_Geordio

The Dutch also have to contend with the fact that they only have 4 points in the second place table, which would place them joint bottom (if they they were in second). They’ll get 3 from Luxembourg (which won’t count) & 3 from Belarus, they’ve to play Sweden, France and Bulgaria then, they’d be happy/doing well with 6 from that you’d imagine. That’d be 13 points, which if the second half of the groups played out similarly, would be right at the foot of the table so wouldn’t leave much margin for error.

I’d expect 13 points would be enough to get a play-off.

The 2014 qualifiers used the same format. Denmark with 10 points were the worst second placed team and were thus eliminated.

Croatia had 11 and Romania 13.

Still, the Dutch will really need to win those two home games against Bulgaria and Sweden. The Sweden game is the final game of the group.

[iron_mike]

I’d expect 13 points would be enough to get a

[/quote]

Are you sure about that. I had a quick glance at the tables yesterday. Without taking too much notice of the current second place teams , I noticed that all of the leaders bar Serbia were on 13 points. Surely that would push a play off place closer to the 16-18 point mark to get to a play off

[Sidney]

13 points leaving out the results against the bottom placed team.

Results against the bottom team aren’t counted when ranking the second placed teams across the groups.

[iron_mike]

Yep forgot about that. My bad @Sidney

[Julio_Geordio]

@Sidney

@Julio_Geordio

The Dutch also have to contend with the fact that they only have 4 points in the second place table, which would place them joint bottom (if they they were in second). They’ll get 3 from Luxembourg (which won’t count) & 3 from Belarus, they’ve to play Sweden, France and Bulgaria then, they’d be happy/doing well with 6 from that you’d imagine. That’d be 13 points, which if the second half of the groups played out similarly, would be right at the foot of the table so wouldn’t leave much margin for error.

I’d expect 13 points would be enough to get a play-off.

The 2014 qualifiers used the same format. Denmark with 10 points were the worst second placed team and were thus eliminated.

Croatia had 11 and Romania 13.

Still, the Dutch will really need to win those two home games against Bulgaria and Sweden. The Sweden game is the final game of the group.

Twelve should be enough. From an Irish point of view a victory over Austria would put us in a great position for the playoffs at least. Austria would be out of the running and Wales would be at least 4 behind. If Wales were beaten by the Serbs as well we’d just need to beat Georgia & Moldova.
I suppose a draw in Serbia v Wales is the ideal outcome, but a Serb win putting Wales out of contention might not be the worst either.
Wales winning would be a positive in the battle for first, but would put them back in the running and we’ve to go there the last day. Wouldn’t fancy needing a result in Cardiff although the atmosphere would be good.
A playoff is very much in our hands now

[Matty_Hislop]

As long as @Sidney doesn’t start predicting our results we’ll be grand.

[the_man_himself]

Argentina are losing to Bolivia so far after Messi got suspended earlier today for four games for abusing a match official in the last game. Decent chance they won’t qualify given how shit their record is without Messi. Picking Icardi and Dybala would be a start though

[Sidney]

2-0 now

[Sidney]

Argentina’s qualifying hopes running low on oxygen in the thin air of La Paz.

A 2-0 defeat to Bolivia which means they could be outside the qualification spots at the end of the night’s American action.

Remaining four fixtures are
Uruguay (a)
Venezuela (h)
Peru (h)
Ecuador (a)

Good news for them however as Colombia lead 2-0 at half-time away to Ecuador. If Colombia hang on to win, Argentina would remain 2 points ahead of the Ecuadorians in a likely 5th place.

But they’d want to be clear of Ecuador going into that final game as it’ll be at altitude, and Argentina are useless at altitude. They’re useless at any altitude at the moment, really.

[Aristotle]

Venezuela & Peru at home are relatively favourable fixtures, might just see them sneak through.

How many home games do Ecuador have left, not as much of a threat away from home.

[Sidney]

@Aristotle

How many home games do Ecuador have left, not as much of a threat away from home.

Ecuador started off the campaign brilliantly but have been progressively fading as it has worn on.

If Argentina are to qualify it will likely be down to Ecuador fading.

Ecuador’s remaining fixtures are:
Brazil (a)
Peru (h)
Chile (a)
Argentina (h)

Brazil and Chile away are likely losses with Peru a likely win. In that case, and presuming Ecuador don’t come back to beat Colombia tonight, two home wins would assure Argentina of at least fifth place and a play off, most likely against New Zealand, which looks a gimme.

[Aristotle]

Noticed NZ don’t seem to be going well at all, only winning by a goal or two against teams they should be smashing.

I reckon Argentina will get 5th based on that. They might lose to Uruguay, and even to Ecuador but surely, surely they’ll win those two games at home.

[Sidney]

@Aristotle

I reckon Argentina will get 5th based on that. They might lose to Uruguay, and even to Ecuador but surely, surely they’ll win those two games at home.

They should, even without Messi, but they very, very nearly fucked it up in a similar situation at home to Peru when they were on the verge of being eliminated in 2009, when Martin Palermo famously scored the winner with almost the last kick, in a Buenos Aires monsoon.

Argentine football is a mess at the moment - they aren’t producing nearly the same standard of player now that they did when they won five World Cups at under-20 level between 1995 and 2007.

[anon32894817]

Will Brazil win tonight?