You’d imagine Nadal will have to beat fellow Spaniards and clay court specialists David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro which should set up a semi-final showdown with Wawrinka or Murray.
On the opposite side of the draw Federer has came out relatively well for a shot at a semi-final slot, Berdych probably his biggest threat before the final four.
Djokvic has a few potential banana skins, he will probably have to meet Janowicz or Tsonga in the fourth round and most likely Raonic or Nishikori in the quarter - both having showed up well lately.
Nadal has been poor this clay court season but seemed to be coming on towards the end of the Rome Masters.
To answer the question on everyone’s lips… I’m not going this year.
I am prepared to answer (a limited number of) questions on how players cope with and adapt to the vagaries of the Roland Garros surfaces, based on my experiences attending grand slam matches there.
Federer faces Ernests Gulbis in the next round, I think Gulbis will send him packing, when Gulbis is on his game he is scintilating, he is in very good form at the minute, reached a career high 17th in the world recently, has progressed to the fourth round without dropping a set and has beaten Federer on clay before as well as clay being his best surface. Gulbis is one of the few tennis players about at the moment who has the ability to overturn the top 4 when he brings his best form.
Djokovic will face the winner of Tsonga and Janowicz. Nadal and Murray in action tomorrow in matches you would expect routine victories for both.
Tsonga could be a tricky opponent for Novak. If it was a semi final or a final, Tsonga would must likely go to pieces with the pressure but earlier rounds there’s less pressure and he could give it a big rattle. Beat Federer last year in quarters and year before pushed Novak to 5 sets at same stage and had 4 match points.
The way the draw is falling, Nadal is having an exceptionally soft time of it. With Almagro (retiring injured), Haas & Popiscki all exiting 1st round from his quarter of the draw, it means he’ll more than likely be the only player lining up in the quarter finals not to have faced a seed to get there. David Ferrer likely to be that quarter final opponent. Assuming he gets over Ferrer, could be a handy semi final too as Wawrinka is gone from that quarter, Andy is 5-5 in the 5th with Kohlschreiber and in real danger of going out. If Andy does depart, it’ll more than likely be a player from outside Top 16, Nadal will face in the semi as 14th seed Fognini is gone and 12th seed Gasquet is two sets down overnight.
The real danger for Nadal who’s looked sluggish all season is he could be undercooked if he faces Novak in the final. The real plus for Nadal in not having to face any banana skins and having such a handy draw will obviously be if Novak trips up before the final. Tsonga in Round 4 and most probably Raonic in the quarters both have the potential to be awkward.
Murray battled through against Kolschreiber 12-10 in the deciding set. Gulbis and Federer in action now, looks like the first set is on course for a tie break.
Federer gets the last four points in a row to take the tie break 7-5. That was very important for him as I don’t think he can afford to be dropping the first set in grand slam events any longer against dangerous opponents.
Federer had two set points at 40-15 when he was serving to take the set 6-3. However he then saved to break points at 40-15 which had Gulbis won would have had him serving for the set. Both players making loads of mistakes.
Fed would be as well off now bowing out here now in four and start knuckling down for the start of the serious tennis season in Halle, Monday week. Even pushing 33, with Edberg in his corner he has a shot at winning his 8th Championship.
Good performance from Andy today. No ill effects from the Kohlschreiber marathon and dismissed Verdasco comfortably in straight sets. He looks the in form player in the top half of the draw.
Nadal has had it very comfortable up until now, think Ferrer will give him a good game but would expect Nadal to come through in quite a fraught battle. I was reading earlier that he has been struggling with the same back injury since the Australian Open final and his service speed is down considerably since then. Murray should go through in 4 against Monfils. Straight sets victory for Djokovic on the cards and Berdych to take care of Gulbis.