Russia Vs Ukraine (Part 1)

You could teach them how to live with that.

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I wonder what poor Micheál said to Volodymyr to upset him?

https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2022/0325/1288393-taoiseach-zelensky/

I think it was aimed more at some of our idiot MEPs - Daly, Wallace, Flanagan and a few others.

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That would explain it alright. Hard to keep them idiots quiet though.

I am loved in the West

The sun may rise in the East, at least
It settles in it’s final location

He’s a nonce.

I think he’s talking about laois.

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No one’s talking about Laois

Does he think I am Laois?

How did the war in Ukraine become all about you?

I’m not sure either but it has and we may just go with it now

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1 potato, 2 potato, 3 potato, 4

That American soldier fella keeps appearing on my Twitter timeline. I’m going to have to block the cunt.

This lad

Tremendous post. Tip of my hat Sir.

This is as informative an interview as I have heard about the weapons situation on the Ukrainian side, and it isn’t particularly optimistic.

What Ukraine needs are Soviet era weapons and equipment their military is familiar with, as new US weapons, while helpful, take time to learn how to use, and the weapons need to be used now. Also javelins and stingers are not enough to win a war, and Ukraine doesn’t even have enough of those.

Starts at 26:15 here.

This episode tackles the urgent need for accountability in both the United States and in Putin’s war on Ukraine. We start out with yet another deep dive into the cesspool that is Merrick Garland’s political career and in particular, his alliance with lifelong mentor and corruption queen Jamie Gorelick. We then turn again to the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine and the urgent need for Ukrainians to be protected from the brutal Russian air strikes and ongoing mounting genocide of Ukrainian civilians. For that, we welcome a special guest this week: Ukrainian analyst Olena Tregub, Secretary General of NAKO (the Independent Defense Anti-Corruption Committee), an international oversight body created by Transparency International.


Andrea Chalupa::

Alright, so I’m joined by Olena Tregub. Since 2017, Olena is the Secretary General of NAKO (the Independent Defense Anti-Corruption Committee), an international oversight body created by Transparency International. NAKO’s mission is to strengthen democratic oversight over defense spending and increase accountability and transparency of the sector. From 2015 to 2017, Olena led the National Authority for International Development Assistance Coordination as the director at Ukraine’s Ministry of Economic Development. She oversaw a vast portfolio of international development projects and programs totaling $12 billion. After a sharp increase of aid funds after Euromaidan, known as the Revolution of Dignity, she was responsible for establishing the assistance coordination mechanisms aimed at optimizing the involvement of international partners and aligning aid with national reform priorities. She worked on ensuring the efficient and transparent use of funds and public access to aid information by creating an online aid management system, openaid.gov.ua.

Andrea Chalupa:

So simply put, Olena is one of the superstars of Ukraine’s civil society movement. She was very active on Maidan and she was one of the many reformers that came into government following the revolution. Now, with her unique perspective of oversight over Ukraine’s defense industry, including corruption and lack of efficiencies and so forth, Olena is in an interesting role where she can see what the Ukrainian military has in its resistance against what we all considered to be the second most powerful military in the world, the Russian military, that’s ongoing in its genocidal war against Ukraine. She also knows what Ukraine needs and what Ukraine’s government and supporters are asking for in order to successfully defeat the Russians militarily because it doesn’t seem like anything else…Well, short of Putin falling sick and dying or meeting an untimely end, it doesn’t seem like anything else will really stop Putin at this point because the sanctions take forever to really kick in and he doesn’t care about the people suffering. And he’s just on this rabid quest to destroy Ukraine because the man is convinced of his own conspiracy theories about Ukraine and speaks about Ukraine in terms of genocide language, so this might have to get resolved on the battlefield, unfortunately. So Olena is in a unique position to tell us what Ukraine has militarily, what it still needs and how the West can do more to support in resisting Putin. Welcome to Gaslit Nation, Olena.

Olena Tregub:

Hi, thank you for inviting me.

Andrea Chalupa:

What support has Ukraine received from the US so far and what are your thoughts about President Biden’s support for Ukraine?

Olena Tregub:

Initially, of course, we are grateful that the United States was able to warn the world about the plans of Putin to invade Ukraine, that everybody from the Western coalition of democracies, everybody was a little bit at least prepared for what’s going to happen, at least on a mental level. So it is good that there is this anti-Putin coalition that was formed, but at the same time, when it comes to practical assistance, practical support for Ukraine to be able to fight off Russian aggression, I would say it’s too little and too late what we are receiving, catastrophically too little and too late. And I can explain, for example, in terms of military assistance, it’s the most important thing right now because it will determine how much of the territory Putin will be able to occupy.

Olena Tregub:

It will determine whether Putin will be able to take Kyiv or not. Unfortunately, Ukraine has not received this assistance from the United States. What we received is some fragments of assistance, some small tactical weapons, but they are absolutely not sufficient given how many different weapons the Russians have and are using against us. They’re using strategic ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, supersonic missiles, thermobaric bombs, and basically the advanced weapons we’ve received from US are stingers and javelins and several helicopters. It’s, of course, nothing compared to what we need and our army currently is not equipped. We are running out of our weapons. We do need more javelins. We don’t have enough javelins. We need these bigger weapons even more urgently right now. So we need both.

Olena Tregub:

We need also urgently the support of United States to help us buy from other countries, to transfer from other countries that have Soviet weapons because we need tanks, armed vehicles, ammunition, artillery. We’re just running out of everything just because our defense industry, which actually my organization was reforming and overseeing, it’s not prepared for this war. It was not really preparing for the full scale war and currently a majority of the factories, they don’t even function and we cannot produce urgently all the weapons that we need. So the situation is critical. The situation is dire and we need the assistance immediately.

Andrea Chalupa:

Why are Soviet weapons important for Ukraine?

Olena Tregub:

This is because we need them today and we need to start operating them today because our military knows how to use them and they will be able to do it immediately once we receive those weapons. For example, when we receive javelins, the instruction is written in English. It takes some time for a military person to learn how to use javelin. Not many were trained how to use a javelin, just some. So, of course, in this situation, we need weapons that we already know very well how to use because right now we have maybe like, you know, several days before Russia will start their second wave of escalation. Maybe we have several weeks, we don’t know but there is a feeling of urgency. We don’t know if Belarus is going to formally put boots on the ground, tomorrow or day after tomorrow. We need to be prepared for this. And once you know, there is maybe some ceasefire in this war, maybe there is some time, then we need more modern weapons.

Olena Tregub:

Then we need those serious weapons like Patrio long range air defense systems that we were asking for even before the beginning of this war. We need serious drones that can destroy the Russian columns. We need all of that, but we will need time to learn how. We need modern jets right now. For example, we’re asking for Soviet jets like MiGs, like SU. A pilot can learn how to fly a modern jet within one month, several months, and they can do it but at this stage of the war, the Soviet equipment is what’s needed urgently the most right now.

Andrea Chalupa:

What do you say to anyone who would point out that, “Well, look how great Ukraine is doing with the javelins and stingers and helicopters we’ve already given them, so why don’t we just keep throwing more of those at Ukraine?”

Olena Tregub:

You know, this is just PR. This is just a distortion of reality in public communication because, yes, there are a lot of stories covering how we are using javelins but you should analyze how many javelins we received and how many of them we are using. Actually, we’re not even using all of them, I can tell you. We’re using much more of our own, for example, tanks, our own artillery systems, much more than javelins, but it’s not reported in Western media because it’s not as pleasant to hear maybe for American taxpayers who are happy that javelins are helping us. Yes, javelins are helping us but javelins will not help us to win the war against Russia because it’s not the most serious weapon.

Olena Tregub:

And yet, you know, a javelin is a lethal weapon and we don’t understand why, for example, the Biden administration thinks it’s okay to give us javelins but it’s not okay to give us jets. Both are lethal weapons, essentially and I think that what needs to happen is that Ukraine, we have the right to ask for what we need and we need to be listened to. If Ukrainians are asking for those MiGs, for example, they should be given those MiGs because Ukrainians know what they need. But currently the situation is that we are given what we are given. And we are thankful for what we get but it will not allow the Ukrainian armed forces to protect our civilians. Our civilians will keep dying from bombin, from cruise and ballistic missiles. We don’t have the capacity to protect lives. We don’t. And also Ukrainian armed forces, they don’t have the capacity to completely stop Russian advances from the ground. This is their reality. And somehow I don’t understand why there is this optimistic mood in the West because we were able to repel Russian aggression for 25 days, but it’s not a victory. We are very, very far from victory. Without assistance from NATO, from the US, we will not be able to have any victory.

Andrea Chalupa:

What would you say to the concern that if the Biden administration gives jets to Ukraine or if NATO gives Patriot missiles to Ukraine, that this could be seen as a direct provocation of Russia and therefore lead to World War III and nuclear war with Russia?

Olena Tregub:

I just want to remind those who make this argument that Vladimir Putin doesn’t need to be provoked to make a decision about aggression. For example, his current war of aggression against Ukraine is completely unprovoked by anything. He just decided to have this war because he can and because he calculated that there will be no consequences for him because when he enacted Crimea, when he started war in the East, there were no consequences for him so he decided now he can go further and he can be even more aggressive. This is the way his mind works. Vladimir Putin has zero self deterrence and he is always aggressive. It doesn’t matter if you provoke him or not. Vice versa, if he sees weakness, this is when he has aggression and this is when he moves further. So in my opinion, what the US administration is currently doing, they are creating even more danger for Europe, for the Western world, because if Valdimir Putin occupies, for example, if they make a calculation that it’s okay that Vladimir Putin can occupy half of Ukraine and it will be contained, that this war will not spread further.

Olena Tregub:

No, of course it will because Putin will create a military base for him in that part of Ukraine. He will just use it to start a bigger war because Ukraine is just an intermediary stop for him. As you know, Russian opinion polls show that the majority of Russians want their government to attack European NATO countries. They speak about it openly. It’s a public demand and Vladimir Putin will do whatever is needed in order for him to preserve his power because he’s desperately afraid to be in prison or executed for his multiple crimes and his corruption. Whatever he does, he does it just for him. He wants to stay in power and if staying in power means going to attack a NATO country, of course he will do it.

Olena Tregub:

Moreover, if the argument of NATO countries and of the Biden administration is that giving us jets can create provocation that Putin will decide to, what? Attack NATO for that? It will be Putin’s decision and Putin, so far he has not yet…He will not decide to attack NATO based on that. He will decide to attack NATO when he would calculate that it is safe for him to attack NATO. For example, his calculation would be that he will use asymmetrical warfare against NATO. Even though NATO is 10 times stronger than Putin, he will just say, “I’m going to use nuclear force if you don’t give me…” for example, Estonia. And then there will be pundits on American television right saying that, “Okay, why would we risk in America, our a life? Let’s just give him Estonia. Let’s just exit NATO.” This is what Putin wants.

Olena Tregub:

It’s very sad that so far Biden’s administration is playing along his playbook, unfortunately. It’s very wrong that the Biden administration makes statements that “We will not use boots on the ground. There is no way we will implement a no-fly zone, no way we will give MiGs,” because when they say this, they give Putin a green light for more aggression and more escalation and this is what is happening. You see, even though the Biden administration restrained themselves, they had very limited assistance for Ukraine, nothing really big, still what are we seeing? We’re seeing that Putin is escalating every day. At this point, they’re just destroying whole villages. They’re just attacking residential buildings without any consideration for human life. They are shelling nuclear power stations. They are sending more powerful missiles. Why is this escalation happening? Then if he uses chemical weapons in Ukraine, if he uses even nuclear weapons, the Biden administration says, “No, we will not intervene even if Putin will use chemical weapons in Ukraine.” That’s pretty much what, already, the White House said. I think this is very wrong and it just encourages escalation on the behalf of Putin.

Andrea Chalupa:

Yeah. I think that pride in restraint that the US is showing, that Biden is showing, is a counter to George W. Bush and his administration which quickly drove Americans into war based on lies that unleashed a big trauma for the US that’s been lasting with the forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. So when Biden shows his pride in restraint on this matter, it’s coming from George W. Bush and what he did. It’s something that Americans do want to hear and that they are comforted by, but obviously the other side of this is, to Putin, that restraint is translated in his mind as weakness and an invitation to keep going. So that’s the whole enduring trauma of Bush’s wars here is that it’s forced Americans into a position essentially that is just going to invite greater aggression from Putin. And I want to point out three of Russia’s main polling firms, three main polling firms in Russia that are considered objective and credible, every single one of them have polled Russians and seen that Putin’s approval rating has never been higher.

Andrea Chalupa:

It’s at 71% now because of his invasion of Ukraine. So this is something that Putin is glorifying in to excite the Russian people. He’s created all sorts of disinformation to justify the sanctions and the international boycott, his propaganda machine even claiming there will be reparations for what the West is doing to Russians in terms of all these sanctions. So, Putin has never been more popular than he is right now among Russians. Where is that coming from? Because I know we in the West point out all the heroic Russians that are getting arrested for protests, but those are the minority. The majority of Russians support Putin and his war and what he’s doing. And yes, they live in a totalitarian state now, but for the last eight years since this invasion started, Russians had access to credible objective information through all sorts of foreign sources and the internet.

Andrea Chalupa:

They could have sought out alternative viewpoints and a lot of books on history, a lot of facts. They had Memorial who was trying to show Russians all the atrocities committed under Stalin and so forth. So Russians that support Putin, they had other options all this time to get credible information but yet they chose to fall in line with Putin’s aggression and terrorism. So could you speak a little bit about where you think that comes from among Russians and what do you think will happen between Russians and Ukrainians moving forward? Do you think this is going to be a conflict that endures for generations?

Olena Tregub:

Yeah, sure. But before I speak about that, I just wanted to briefly address your earlier argument that Americans are afraid of the war of choice, of this third world war threat. There is a huge spectrum of things that can be done between doing nothing and going into the third world war. There are many, many ways how Ukraine can receive help without Americans going into the third world war. And right now, the Biden administration is doing the minimum unfortunately. I don’t speak about sanctions, I speak about concrete rescue of civilian life, of a country that is fighting for democracy, for a foundation of liberty, all the values that we all share in our community of democracy. So, they are doing too little and this is why our argument is definitely we don’t ask Americans to go to the third world war, but just doing much more is possible.

Olena Tregub:

And it’s not a risk as it is portrayed in American media sometimes. My answer to the second question is yes, of course, this war is not about Putin. Putin is just the leader of Russia who happens to be the leader of Russia, who happens to be corrupt and too scared to step down, and he will do whatever is needed to stay in power. What is needed to stay in power is waging wars. Russia is a fascist society by now. It’s very militaristic. They derive their pride from invading other countries, from hurting other people. Unfortunately, this is how right now the Russian culture is built, that they see themselves as some nation who is entitled to suppress all other nations around them. And the future of Russia is that it should be de-Putinized, demilitarized, it should be stripped of nuclear power and only then, maybe 50 years from now, it can become a normal democratic country.

Olena Tregub:

Otherwise, if Russia stays the way it is, there will be another leader after Putin who will want to wage another war in five or seven years from now. You know, it’s just unfortunately the state that Russia has become and unfortunately the world has not really paid attention to what’s happening with Russian society, Russian rhetoric. I just don’t understand it. Russia has always been a huge, huge threat for the Western world, for the world order, but it was completely ignored because Russia was able to corrupt Western elites, Russia had money to spread their Russia Today propaganda all over the world. But Russians, at the same time, there was no reaction when, for many years now when Russian TV, they were all saying how they dream about sending nuclear weapons to nuke, for example, Warsaw, to nuke, for example, Baltic states. It’s their national dream and they have huge support for this horrific, horrific, inhumane threat.

Olena Tregub:

It tells you what culture currently this country has. And we see right now that, you know, all these 200 troops which now are being sent to Ukraine, currently, already many died but currently there are around 100,000 troops in Ukrainian territory. They are not Putins. They are people who think it’s okay to fight this war, who think it’s okay to fight Ukrainians, to kill Ukrainians, to erase Ukraine from the face of the earth. It’s unfortunately the ideology of the culture of this country. The world should deal seriously with this global threat. It’s a much bigger threat than some terrorist organization because terrorist organizations, they emerge then they dissolve. And Russia is there. It’s a big country. It exists and it’ll always be a threat unless there is some huge change, like I said, of the regime, of ideology, like it happened to Nazi Germany.

Andrea Chalupa:

What would you say to people in the West who have great sympathy for the Russian people and say, “Well, they’re victims, they’re brainwashed. Those polls can’t be trusted even though they’re by credible polling agencies because the Russians live in fear and they’re staying home and remaining silent because they’re scared.” What would you say to that?

Olena Tregub:

It’s exactly the same as saying that Germans who lived under Adolf Hitler, they were also victims and they were afraid to speak against Nazism. It’s the same. Unfortunately, Russians had many, many chances to speak against Putin, to speak against the war, but it’s their choice. They made a choice not to speak against it and currently, yes, it’s becoming increasingly hard for them to speak out because their laws are now becoming more totalitarian, indeed. But even if when this soldier that we captured in Ukraine, he tells us that he did not want to go to war but he still went because what choice did he have? He said, “If I would refuse to go to war, I can go to jail.” Well, it’s a choice. He should have chosen jail but he decided to go to kill innocent women and children. You know? Unfortunately, this is the choice and they always have choice.

Andrea Chalupa:

What would you like to see from the US in terms of support to successfully defeat Russia?

Olena Tregub:

Well, I think that the US should just use its political, military, financial power that they have in the world to help Ukraine repel Russian aggression, to help Ukraine maintain the territory that we currently have, and it needs to be done not as slow and in a delayed fashion as it is done now, but in a more proactive way, not reactive way that Putin is ahead always and the US is behind. So yes, we need help, like I said, that we receive Soviet equipment. The US can help here because the US is the richest country out of all our allies and the US gave us this big, generous package of money that we can use for military assistance but we are not really using this money properly right now. We can pay to those Eastern European countries so they can buy some replacement weapons so they are not left defenseless.

Olena Tregub:

So this is urgent. And also, like I said, sending us more modern weapons on a later stage, also tightening sanctions is very important. Unfortunately, the big problem is that, you know, during this war, Germany paid to Russia probably 4 billion Euros for oil and gas which is financing directly the war. So if the US can help Europe to get rid of dependency on Russian oil and gas, this would be really big because Russia should be sanctioned and should be left without money completely, to the extent that officials in Russia can not open a computer because this computer doesn’t have Microsoft functioning, doesn’t have any other programs, that they are completely unable to conduct this war. Right now, Russian factories are manufacturing cruise and ballistic missiles around the clock because they are running low on missiles because they’ve fired, already, more than 1,000 missiles on Ukraine. And they make more of them.

Olena Tregub:

So the US should help us to the extent that Russia doesn’t have materials, doesn’t have the capacity to make more missiles. Otherwise, it just will be too tragic not only for Ukraine but for Europe. You see, these threats, they are huge because Vladimir Putin, he really wants to destabilize NATO and Europe. He wants Ukrainian refugees to be more than 8 million, which is currently projected by European governments. He wants tens of millions refugees. He wants to destroy basically Europe in order to control Europe, or part of Europe. That’s his goal really, and the US should see this and prevent this from happening because it will be a major catastrophe. Moreover, all these bad regimes are looking right now at what Putin is doing—threatening the world with nuclear weapons—and that he’s able to get away with anything basically, only because of him threatening the US with nuclear weapons. So, if the Biden administration doesn’t change policy, what will happen is there will be massive nuclear proliferation of very bad actors after this war. The whole world can become chaotic and violent essentially, and it all depends on the right policy that currently our Western partners should implement. That’s my message.

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just waiting on @myboyblue to say the magic words

Putin’s war in Ukraine nearing a more dangerous phase, but experts believe Russia could be softening to the prospect of a deal - Independent.ie

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Putin is whining about being “cancelled” again and trying to ally himself with JK Rowling.

image

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