exactly.
Bookmarked & I hope your right
very hard to say. Speaking to a couple of Ukrainians here the other day about it. One of them is reasonably optimistic. Her husband is still in Ukraine, but not at their home. She is hopeful they get to go back soon and shes after promising to bring us out the next time they are there at Christmas to have that there. The other woman was less positive. Apartments and houses all destroyed, and she said that even ones not destroyed by war will have natural deterioration and looting/vandalism by locals and or Russians. Kiev is destroyed. Buildings are fucked and the infrastructure is in ribbons. Railways and roads are in shit and its very hard to get to. There is no easy fix once the war is over. And there is no real positivity that it will end. We didnt go into too much more detail as its not an easy subject to talk about and their housemates here have suffered something absolutely horrendous that makes talking about the whole thing very difficult. Occupation in the east seems a given, which means they will never feel free or always at risk for another invasion.
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It could go on for at least another year, possibly years. Seems to me Putin will try and grind and hold out for a Republican congress in the US, and maybe try and grind until a Republican president in 2025, to bring the west down from within.
But events, dear boy, events.
I expect Putin will turn off the taps to Europe this winter. But Russia needs that money. And it seems to me that the rouble is a Potemkin currency and Russia has become a Potemkin state.
Then there’s the possibility of global famine and mass migration to Europe on a scale never seen before, which Putin is also holding out for. But the more you examine it, the more that seems fanciful.
There are huge structural forces at play which mitigate against a years long grind in the way that happened in Bosnia.
Bosnia was junior D. This is senior hurling.
If this ever ends and Ukraine remains a state in any sort of recognisable form, they will militarise to a level that makes Israel look like pacifists. And that will be the entirely rational reaction.
And?
Lads are awful simple. Putin would be happy enough to stop fighting tomorrow, even if it means he’s stuck with a lump of Ukraine that he doesn’t want and Ukraine doesn’t deserve. The war isn’t even much use to biden and boris any more. The only people it benefits are in the arms industry and its investors. The Ukrainian army is fucked and can only harass russia with western artillery, which essentially means destroying Ukrainian cities. A travesty of a mockery of a shambles the whole thing.
Why doesn’t he so?
I don’t think so. The Russians will be ‘dug in’ so to speak with defensive positions built up. It’s much, much harder to fight against prepared defensive positions.
I can’t see them allowing Ukraine access to the sea under any circumstance.
Yeah they should have just rolled over on February 24th.
The Ewan MacKenna gambit.
Och he’d probably have to agree terms, negotiate or something like that.
Why doesn’t he so?
A lad on the INTERNET told him he hasn’t the minerals to stay going.
Hasn’t he openly stated he does not recognise the State and that it is essentially Russian territory.
There are obviously plenty of people making a lot of money from this conflict but to think Putin isn’t also one of these is a bit of a stretch too.
His initial claim was a special military operation to secure Russias defence.
What was the immediate treat to Russia?
I’d imagine Putin will keep enough in reserve to get to winter as that’s what he’s banking on with Europe freezing their nads off
It worked with Hitler.
The coal arrived at moneypoint today
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