False flag ahoy.
It’s not over yet.
There will be no war and there never was going to be a war, for two reasons. Not alone would Ukraine fight (with NATO and US backing), they would fight a guerrilla war for decades if they had to. The Russian economy is smaller than Italy, no way could they sustain a military adventure for decades. They learned this lesson in Afghanistan, one of the reasons leading to the breakup of the USSR. The second reason is Russia would not invade without Xi giving the green light, and there is no way China would support a long term losing proposition. China will fight future wars by stealth not direct conflict.
Russia’s basic demand is they don’t want any more countries on their border joining NATO, specifically Ukraine and Georgia. They are more emboldened now as they have China’s support on this question. They will continue to posture and threaten if there is movement on this issue by the US/NATO. I suspect they have been given an assurance behind the scenes that it is not going to happen.
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Game theory 101
There will be no war thankfully.
Putin’s minimum demands are not available via “diplomacy”. Putin’s minimum demand is the destabilisation of the Ukrainian state and polity via veto power for the DNR/LNR to ensure re-orientation away from the west and towards a Russian sphere of influence.
If Putin recognises the DNR/LNR as independent, that is a complete demolition of the Minsk agreement (which is a joke anyway). The DNR and LNR also claim jurisdiction over the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (provinces), most of which are not in their possession.
It would also be a recognition that he cannot attain his minimum demands via “diplomacy”.
It is possible, far from certain, but possible, that Putin has decided that invading Kiev is unattainable right now. That would not mean that an invasion and occupation elsewhere in Ukraine is off the table. That would probably include the coastal strip linking Donbas and Crimea, possibly as the entirety of the coast down as far as the Moldovan border, including Odessa, ie. the same territorial aims as the failed 2014 “Novorossiya” active measures. If false flags are still being manufactured, as in Luhansk currently, invasion remains very much on the table.
But even if Putin successfully invaded and landlocked a rump Ukrainian state, that still leaves the rump Ukrainian state still bordering Russia, still a western orientated democracy, and more hostile to Russia than ever.
There might be a lag here too
The next two weeks are critical.
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There already is a war. There has been a war for the last eight years.
Who’s to say really. I don’t think that his minimum demand. If an outcome is negotiated that avoids war putin will have gotten something out of this whole thing.
How so? Putin hasn’t been threatening to expand his war for no reason. If he backs down and gets nothing he has then been seen to make a spectacular blunder. The whole of the west is now acutely aware of the danger he poses. Ukraine is even more radicalised against Russia. Putin has won no concessions from Ukraine. The flow of arms to Ukraine has increased and will continue to increase.
The only thing Putin has got from this whole shitshow over the last few months is Macron, Truss and Scholz coming to Moscow and grovelling supinely to him - talking about the future of Ukraine without Ukraine involved. I’m sure that’s great for Putin’s ego. But apart from that he has got nothing.
That is why I expect he is not backing down but digging in and trying to deceive, shure whats new.
If some sort of agreement is reached to defuse the situation it suggests putin has gotten something. No one knows yet if that will happen obviously.
Eh, Truss told Russia there would be severe consequences if they invaded Ukraine, that’s what you wanted isn’t it?
I think macron and belatedly scholz have been helpful, but apparently you only speak the language of the gun.
How have they been helpful? Macron did a solo run and kow towed to Putin. Scholz is kow towing to Putin. Recognising him as an “international statesman” while getting nowhere with a man there is no hope of getting anywhere with through diplomacy, and offering no public push back or rebuke.The hapless, utterly useless and out of her depth Truss came out of her meeting with Lavrov looking the least bad of the three.
Well
If you say so, as I’ve maintained all along, I think you’re clueless and trotting out some amount of shite.
Grand, and you’re presumably an international authority on this of sort of stuff, despite you making the most basic mistake of all, which is believing that Putin is an honest broker.
I honestly don’t know where you get half the stuff you come out with. I never suggested putin was an honest broker.
I think you’re wrong about macron and scholz. The only route to a peaceful solution is to ensure the space remains open for dialogue and negotiation. You don’t seem to want that, only hard man tactics, I don’t think that’s a very good approach.
All your general tone suggests you think Putin is an honest broker.
You cannot negotiate with somebody who has no word. You can only face them down.
Macron and Scholz have no intention of doing that.
It’s a good thing you’re not in a position of power, you sound like a dictator.