OSINT = Open Source Intelligence.
I fear the real start of war is imminent, possibly tonight.
Ukraine itself sure seems to believe it is anyway.
Just talking to a Ukrainian lad at work - he’s freaking out. Reckons that Putin is going to attack Kiev, invading south from Belarus, and hundreds of thousands will be killed.
Yeah but @carryharry 's mate from Lithuania hiding out in Tipp reckons that everything will be grand.
TNH
Carrys Litanian is actually a Russian
Passing on info is all pal.
Hopefully he’s correct. 
If you want to be optimistic, this is the (long) thread for you.
While yer man here makes a lot of good points, the problem is that they are based in logic, whereas Putin’s worldview is not.
I’m still seeing a lot of talk that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Putin is in the cards,especially that his military hardware keeps getting closer to the border.
While the risk of a wider regional conflict in E.Ukraine is high, full-scale invasion unlikely. Here is why 1/
Let me start with stating that I am no military historian but have a decent command of modern history and have gone through some of the modern large scale military conflicts for reference to see whether the forces Russia has amassed are enough for a successful invasion 2/
Let’s start with the biggest operation in modern history, Operation Barbarossa, a full-scale invasion by Nazi Germany into the USSR aimed at conquering and occupying the country and managing a hostile population 3/
Nazi Germany deployed 3.8 million troops and up to 5,000 aircraft for this operation. The population of the USSR west of the Urals at the time was around 140 million, or just over 3x of the current population of Ukraine 4/
Hitler planned to be in Moscow within 4 months. We know how these plans worked out. Although the USSR has a large army as well, the bulk of its elite officers were purged by Stalin just before the war, and the general population in parts of Ukraine that was on the frontlines 5/
Was demoralized by Holodomor and the red terror in west Ukraine that the USSR annexed from Poland 2 years prior. At the same time Hitler had the resources and the industrial base of practically all Europe to supply and support his military machine, and a highly nationalistic 6/
and militarized society back home to support his ongoing conquests. Despite all that, he didn’t capture Moscow and some 18months later the tide of war was turned in Stalingrad. 7/
My goal here is to just go through the numbers, and as a reminder Russia currently has 150,000 troops on Ukraine borders ( with another 30,000 in separatist regions ). Let’s move on from this example to the Winter War of 1940. 8/
During that war, the USSR deployed up to 700k soldiers and almost 4k aircraft against tiny Finland, population 3.7m at the time. Though Soviets did capture some territory, the war was lost since they failed in their aims to take control of the country and 9/
and suffered a 50% casualty rate. Granted, the war has taken place in a tough terrain but it shows that even a tiny country with a highly motivated population can hold its own against an overwhelming invading force of an immensely larger adversary 10/
Let’s look at more recent conflicts involving post-Soviet Russia:
First Chechen war: 70,000 Russian troops fought 10–15k Chechen troops for almost 2yrs, with a victory only amounting to a pause until a 2nd Chechen war 4yrs later 11/
Second Chechen war: 80,000 Russian troops + allied chechens against 25,000 Chechen separatists… it took Russia 9 months to win that conflict.
For reference, Russia’s population at the time was 150m vs. 1m chechens
12/
Russia’s War with Georgia in 2008:
Russia deployed 85k Russian + allied troops against 20k Georgian troops and won control over 2 separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, population 100k and 250k respectively… a decisive win but in a tiny area of a small country 13/
Georgia population in 2008 was less than 10m.
Let’s look at how much military resources were required by successful western campaigns in modern history:
Gulf war 1990: close to 1 million coalition ground troops organized to eject Saddam from Kuwait; 100,000 sorties flown 14/
and 88,500 tonnes of bombs dropped over the course of 42 days.
The victory was defined as liberating Kuwait. Saddam remained in power and Iraqi homeland wasn’t occupied 15/
Iraq war 2003 invasion phase: 300k coalition troops + 70k Kurdish militia. The goal was to depose an unpopular ruthless dictator - not to occupy and subjugate the country (i.e. only a minority of motivated population available to resist ) 16/
Iraq population in 2003 was 25 million, of which Sunnis were around 8 million, of which Kurds were 5 million… i.e. non-Kurd Sunnis that constitutes Saddam’s core support - just 3 million. Meanwhile Iraq had no military allies providing it with resources and hardware 17/
In light of the numbers we have seen in successful and not-so-successful conflicts, 180k Russian troops surrounding a second largest country in Europe with a highly motivated population of 42m seems rather puny 18/
Some would argue that Russia can use its overwhelming air power to achieve its aims. So let’s have a look of what’s needed to force a country into a political decision by air power alone.
NATO bombing of Yugoslavia lasted almost 3 months and involved over 1000 aircraft and 19/
38,000 sorties. Again, here the victory was defined as ejecting Serbian troops from Kosovo where they engaged in active genocide and displaced up to 90% of population… and not to invade and permanently occupy Serbia proper. Serbia population in 1999 - 7 million 20/
Let’s review the numbers in Ukraine today: Army 250,000, reserves 200,000, veterans with combat experience 400,000. Recent polls indicate that up to 60% of adult male and at least 20% of adult female population are willing to take up arms and fight against an invading force 21/
So that’s would give you 450,000 troops plus anywhere from 2 million to 12 million civilians that will be able and willing to fight against a potential invading force of 180,000. In the context of other conflicts i went through, a full-scale invasion even with a 22/
bombing campaign in a lead up seems laughable.
Let’s also remember that unlike the other conflicts that I have mentioned, today Ukraine has the overwhelming support of the international community that includes direct supplies of military hardware and financial support 23/
I also think that there might be a meaningful number of volunteers with combat experience coming to Ukraine to fight a potential Russian invasion, primarily from east european countries that have been subjected to soviet/Russian aggressions in the 20th century 24/
Some would argue that Ukraine hasn’t had to face with the kind of an aerial campaign that Russia might subject it to. The counterpoint is that Russia hasn’t had an experience of conducting the kind of a campaign it implicitly threatens successfully either, especially 25/
against a highly motivated adversary the size of Ukraine.
Additionally, Russia’s main quasi-ally China has expressed its support for territorial integrity of all sovereign states and said that disputes should be settled peacefully.
China will not give Russia any 26/
cover for a large military operation. In fact, the quasi-alliance with China that Russia alleges is merely a marriage of convenience and is not a military alliance in a true sense of the word. If anything, China has its own designs on Russia’s Far East eventually when 27/
Russia is weakened and there is a large history of conflict between Russia and China that China hasn’t forgotten
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_i…
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Sovi…
28/
Russian invasion of Manchuria - Wikipedia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Manchuria
Sino-Soviet border conflict - Wikipedia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict
Moreover, China’s main policy goals are centered on global economic stability, and it’s heavily reliant on global trade with the US being its chief trading partner. The mercantilist economic model is a function of a shortfall in domestic demand, and if a big war 29/
creates a global slowdown, it would mean a quick rise in China’s unemployment and a restless population while the communist party is already having a hard time controlling a country of 1.5bn people 30/
Let’s get back to Putin. I am sure he has gone through the numbers and knows he doesn’t have the resources for a successful full-scale invasion. As such, any large scale operation comes with very high risks of him losing power ( and life by corollary ) 31/
I think that his actions this week have already created meaningful chances of a potential coup in Russia within 12 months ( i am guessing 20% ) since he is now risking destroying all the economic and political achievements Russia accomplished in last 25yrs 32/
The oligarchs are already turning against him in their own minds after the latest round of sanctions that risk across the board freezes on Russian foreign assets if he escalates, and even retired generals of high stature who are known Stalinists themselves like Ivahsov 33/
are openly criticizing his military adventures and calling for his resignation 34/
themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/07/ant…
Anti-War Broadside Highlights Nationalist Critique of Putin - The Moscow Times Opinion | The anti-war letter published by a fringe former colonel-general is a useful reminder that Putin’s nationalist rhetoric doesn’t convince everyone.https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/07/anti-war-broadside-highlights-nationalist-critique-of-putin-a76280
Leonid Ivashov - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Ivashov
Some say that Putin doesn’t need a full-invasion can just do a quick blotzkrieg on Kiev, takeover the government and install his own puppet regime to rule the country…
that’s pure fantasy… Ukraine government can evacuate out of Kiev and manage the country from another loc 35/
Moreover, no one will listen to the puppet regime as Ukrainians have shown that they are willing to turn even against the government they elect if its actions go against the popular will… not to mention that Russia might need all of these 180,000 troops to be stationed in 36/
occupied Kiev to control it…
The main risks remain that Russians will try to expand the territory under the control of the DPR and LPR by going on offensive to capture the 2/3 of the Donbas regions they don’t control 37/
There is also a risk of Russia attempting to capture Kharkov which is the second largest city in Ukraine, located jsut north of Donbas and fairly close to the Russian border, with aggressive Russian military posture just across the border in Belgorod region… 38/
Russia could try capture Kharkov and install a puppet regime there as an alternative government and then recognize it as the “true government of Ukraine,” a la Vichy regime. Since it’s close to the border they can probably rely on their military infrastructure at home to hold 39/
This would mean the kind of severe sanctions that will cripple Russian economy and won’t solve the issue of highly motivated resistance by Ukrainian forces and armed civilians, and resulting casualties will generate a lot of discontent at home where a war with Ukraine 40/
isn’t popular…
There is also a high risk of potential demoralization among Russian servicemen who would be asked to kill their fellow Slavs after being sold the adventure as “war against NATO”
It’s appropriate to note that the bulk of direct Russian military 41/
involvement in war against Ukraine in 2014-2015 consisted of Kadyrovtsy ( Chechen militants loyal to Kadyrov, that at similar to Iranian IRGC ) in Donetsk in 2014,and tank brigades from Buryatiya, a Russian region adjacent to Mongolia,with buryats being close ethnic relatives 42/
of Mongols…
there is a reason Putin sent non-Slavic Russian units to fight in Ukraine in 2014-2015 - because he knew that asking Russian Slavs to fight Ukrainian Slavs was a tough proposition /end
mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…
Chechens loyal to Russia fight alongside east Ukraine rebels Chanting “Allahu Akbar” (God is greatest), dozens of armed men in camouflage uniforms from Russia’s republic of Chechnya train in snow in a camp in the rebel-held east Ukraine.https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN0JO0OP20141210
‘A bag and a gun, and it was into the tank’ A Russian soldier talks about being wounded near Debaltseve — Meduza Dhorzhi Batomunkuev, a tank operator in the Russian military, was admitted to a hospital in Donetsk with serious burns to his face and hands. Batomunkuev, a Buryat from Siberia, was fighting on the si…https://meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2015/03/02/a-bag-and-a-gun-and-it-was-into-the-tank
• • •
That’s a very interesting post.
If you could go with what it states it appears to me that Bidens so called slip of the tongue was in fact a teaser to incite Putin into taking action which ultimately could weaken his own hand.
If it’s to be believed that China realistically don’t need this hassle or potentially want to see Putin self combust here due to his own self arrogance.
On the other hand, if this has been planned from a long way out then who’s to say the negatives of previous battles won’t be righted this time.
If this is a long game to let Putin hang himself then it still leaves Ukrainians in the firing line.
Tonight the night lads. The red army will be at the gates of Keev by morning. Mark my words.
Biden doesn’t remotely want war and nobody in a position of authority in the west does.
What the US has done here is to simply show a bit of backbone in terms of telling the truth and not giving Putin what he wants. Which is the very least you’d expect.
Ultimately the Ukrainians are the ones taking the decisions. They have rightly refused to capitulate.
Putin was going to do this anyway, but I think the US’s response has thrown him a bit. It has enraged him. But he was enraged anyway.
Ultimately this comes down to a dictator losing his mind.
I don’t think China give a shit about Russia. Whatever outcome occurs suits them either way but they’re canny enough to not get involved.
Perhaps China sees something for themselves in Ukraine as well as the Americans.
Instability is never good for Trade and China need global markets buoyant to keep their own clock ticking as stated in the Article above.
I can’t see how this course of action is good for business for anyone in Russia other than Putin.
I’m not the violent type but I’d be surprised if Putin doesn’t receive a Russian bullet yet.
Look at the behaviour of his selected officials at the press conference earlier this week.
If somebody put a bullet through Putin’s brain tonight they’d be a new entry at #1 on the greatest Russians of all time list.
Who is top currently?
Don’t know buddy but for a country of its size and influence they’ve produced precious few figures that have improved other people’s lives.
A rotten culture.
Have you ever been to Russia?
Dolph is a Swede. Think he ran the Swedish health reponse to Covid.
If they die, they die.