Russia Vs Ukraine (Part 1)

Current Affairs
1727

Some U.K. citizen living in Kiev was on Sky saying that he thinks this will be worse than Afghanistan if and when Russia take over. Hard to know but 2004 and 2014 show a deep divide that it would seem impossible to not imagine a long term civil war against any puppet regime put in place. I can’t see how Putin could hope for a Belarus type situation as the dynamics are so different.

In that sense, he will be committed to some large scale military presence there and will be an international pariah (except for a few States with China you’d imagine staying relatively in the middle) which will weaken his core supporter base and the Russian population.

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1728

Id say he’s one Moscow underground explosion away from implosion

1729

He’ll be a pariah with the EU and NATO but there will be plenty of countries who will happily step in and pick up the slack. Particularly in Asia and Africa.

1730

Assume whatever sanctions will be implemented will have been well predicted by Putin

1731

Trying to control the fate of a large nation like Ukraine is a world of difference from some “regional ethnic” conflict (such as Crimea) that other countries can turn a blind eye to. It’s impossible to predict and I wouldn’t be confident of calling any support for him. What does he have to offer them?

1732

He’s built up large reserves and tied this to high oil prices. But that can only last so long. He needs a short and sharp campaign it seems.

1733
1734

the balance of forces is hopelessly lob sided

1735
1736

Exactly.
You can be sure Putin and Xi will be leveraging off one another. China would probably be able to prop Russia up. They own $1.1tn in US treasury bonds so they have a fair bit of clout. To put that in perspective the economy of Texas is larger than Russia with almost 20% of population of Russia. Russias GDP was $1.7tn last year. I’m sure Putin has given some thought as to the financial implications of this. India would have no problem trading with them either. I’m not sure these measures or making them a world pariah will hurt enough or be enough to dissuade Putin. He won’t stop until he has puppet leaders installed in a lot of former Soviet Union nations. The Western world got complacent. The existential threats of covid and climate change in recent times probably overshadowed this threat.

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1737

Me too!

1738

I doubt Putin gives any thought to what the average russian thinks or does or suffers.

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1739

The yanks will need OPEC to ramp up supply to reduce oil costs to hurt Russia. The Saudis will be lucking their lips

1740

Simple. Liberate Venezuela.

1741

The socialist utopia? No freedom needed there. What cost per barrell do the yanks need to have fracking profitable?

The sooner we phase out oil the better

1742

Great to say Leos priorities are on the ongoing conflict

1743

I suspect this is wishful thinking but hopefully he is right.

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1744

I’m surprised the Russians haven’t taken out communications yet.

1745

The Russian army is hardly the force anymore that it was under General Zhukov?

1746

Anything to be said for an oul protest in Arthur’s quey?
Gather up a few trans,pans, save the planet types and let Vlad know we are disappointed in him

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