I’d say definitely within the next 15 years, there will be a concrete date set.
It will be accelerated when SF get into power south of the border.
You aren’t dealing with the point.
2 out of 3 down south supporting it is not momentum, historically it is not high support for a UI.
Gerry Adams is not convincing anyone who needs to be convinced, he is an active impediment. If you were serious about a UI, you’d want him nowhere near a campaign.
That’s the point. What both Bruton and Oisin McConville said wasn’t groundbreaking or unique. It was the same, reasonable, considered, mainstream opinion - but coming from different standpoints and backgrounds. But on this forum it’s considered extreme. This forum is not representative of the mainstream and never has been.
Tim, you are in the minority here.
We don’t need you on board here.
Fine, you resist a UI. I don’t really give a toss, it’s going to happen so deal with it.
You seem to think Bruton’s unionist rhetoric that threatened to derail the peace process and would have prolonged The Troubles, which he repeated verbatim on Claire Byrne was sensible.
It’s right from the Eoghan Harris and RDE school of revisionism and spin.
After Jarry is in hell, sure.
Delayed by a decade probably, thanks to a cultish obsession with him.
Saying that it is too soon to hold a border poll - and that it is not in the best interests of NI society to make holding one ASAP your main issue - is not unionist rhetoric.
And if you think it is, you think Oisin McConville is a unionist.
You’re just rambling now Tim.
You don’t want a UI but it doesn’t matter what you think anymore.
Adams legacy will be huge and it will be positive on the history of the new 32 county Republic of Ireland.
History will not remember John Bruton as fondly as it will remember Gerry Adams and that is a fact.
Bruton just repeated the same stock lines he’s done for 30 years when he was on Claire Byrne. He was an obstacle to the GFA, he threatened the peace process.
You think what he said was sensible and are trying to put him forward as a credible argument.
That is why your argument is fundamentally flawed. If you listened to MLMD on the same show, you would have heard that SF’s priority is to open the dialogue on what a UI would look like and to try and sell it to the people who will ultimately decide. But it’s the unionist rhetoric of “never, never, never” from John Bruton that you deemed sensible in that debate.
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Support for a UI in the South is at the same levels as it was in 2015.
Your principle reason for a UI seems to be growing support in the south, crediting it to Jarry. Something that is demonstrably untrue. The south are always going to vote for a UI anyway.
I think the reason the momentum is growing down South is solely to do with the failures of FFG to serve the interests of its citizens. The generations coming through have been fucked under a bus, levelled with huge amounts of national debt, a crumbling health service and a housing crisis with young people being fleeced in rent and priced out of the housing market. That’s why people want change and that is why FFG are so resistant to a UI.
My issue isn’t with what was said… But you’re sidelining SF on the basis of their past and their sloganism … Bruton is the other side of the coin, he’s been espousing rejoining the Union/ commenwealth and dismissing nationalism and it’s history for 30 odd years.
Not backed up in opinion polls.
Static support. Opinion polling only really began down south in the 70s but 2 out of 3 is likely historically low.
It’s irrelevant in the south as it has always been a fait accompli that it would get through.
SF converting Labour voters down south with ISF memes makes little difference to a UI.
It’s going to happen Tim.
I’m for it, you’re against. Neither of us are going to convince each other different so let’s just leave it at that.
I can’t sideline SF. What I am saying is that if any future Yes campaign in a border poll is led by SF, it becomes associated with SF, as their “baby”, and therefore is unlikely to win the middle ground, particularly in the north - and that the way a southern campaign is run will influence the dynamic as to how a northern campaign is run. The more SF publicly agitate for a premature border poll - which has no hope of winning in the near to medium term future anyway bar a material change in circumstances, ie. Scotland leaving the UK - the more any future border poll comes to be seen as a purely SF project, as premature - and northern opposition to it and the dampening of Catholic/Nationalist support for it can be mobilised more effectively. It is harder to do that in a situation where the campaign is broad based and is seen to have done the groundwork in terms of conciliation, and has waited until the two sides have moved somewhat closer to each other, and, importantly, where the Yes side actually has a serious chance of winning as per reputable opinion polling - or better yet, is seen as likely to win.
The correct way to frame a southern border poll would be to frame it as not being a vote for united Ireland - but as a vote to allow the people of Northern Ireland the right to their own self-determination - which in the event of a Yes vote in the North, depends on the people of the Republic.
That will never happen
Yes, time to start talking now
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It’s going to led by SF in the north. They are the largest nationalist party. I think any rational person would say that SF are far more agreeable and reasonable than the DUP or even UUP. The only time a border poll would ever pass in the north was when a time came about when Unionism numbers fell below those of nationalist, we are now hitting that era and some of the hair brained decisions from political unionism is even driving the small minority of moderate unionism away from them. The circumstances are all weighing in behind a UI being more and more likely and SF are never going to be agreeable to Unionism and neither will a UI regardless of who drives it.
Look at the graffiti and threats you have seen Varadkar and Coveney’s way for instance from loyalism. You’re throwing a complete red herring in here really.
As for down south, I think FFG are becoming more and more toxic for voters so I also don’t think SF have to much to worry about here that they could put off voters.
Its 50% +1 and it’s tough if people suddenly want to reject the GFA when the result is not to their liking.
Unionism and Nationalism having roughly similar numbers ≠ a majority of Nationalists.
The Nationalist vote has plateaued and in truth did so around 20 years ago.
What is happening is that a growing number of people of Unionist background have become dissatisfied with Unionism, particularly over the last decade, and those who are neither Unionist nor Nationalist have increased. That does not mean they would vote for a united Ireland. It merely means they would not cause havoc were it to happen.
That’s just untrue. It’s trending one way and one way only and has been for 20 years now, this is backed up various census. If you look at PBP for instance, it’s a republican vote, it’s people who will almost certainly vote for UI but have felt that the working class interests in the likes of Derry and Belfast have not been addressed by either SF or SDLP.
The nationalist vote has grown in 20 years, so much so that we are most likely looking at the biggest political party in the O6 being a nationalist one for the first time in the history of the state in the next Assembly elections. You’re painting a picture that is completely false here.
Alliance is a very broad church, they attract moderate unionists, they attract a small Catholic voting base that either exist such Loyalist strongholds that a SF/SDLP candidate won’t get in so they vote Alliance or they are the type of young, woke, liberal type who want to preach.
But you look at them. They had 8 seats out of 78 in 1973, they have 8 seats out of 90 today.
They are growing but they aren’t growing in nationalist areas because nationalist areas vote for nationalist politicians. I don’t think Alliance have any representation in Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry or Armagh.
There is a growing middle ground vote, there’s also a growing natioanlist vote, it’s unionism that is collapsing.