If the Alliance are growing not because nationalists are going to them but because Unionist parties are alienating some Unionists, that does not mean an increase in the Nationalist vote. It backs up what I’m saying about Nationalism plateauing in support, or more to the point, the type of people who might be relied upon to vote Yes in a border poll plateauing.
At the 2001 Westminster election, Nationalist parties took a combined 42.7% of the vote.
In 2015 it was 38.4%.
In 2017 it was 41.1%.
In 2019 it was 38.9%.
It’s not a vote for sf tim, and even if it was the sf voters of today are far removed from those that voted for Adam’s. They’re about to become the largest party in the north. Everyone who votes for them will vote for a UI…along with most SDLP voters and a fair few from the alliance. Politics in the north is far more divisive than the people are. Nationalists and the alliance voters see that the days of the DUP ideology has to end…as do many DUP voters, who just vote for them out of tribal allegiance while objecting to their rhetoric and stance on social issues.
Relatively few young prods have any interest in the crown or union. They’ll vote mainly on economic grounds and southerners who think northerners will have the begging bowl out are sorely mistaken. It’ll take some money to get it going, but nothing like what’s been spent on last years folly.
Europe, Great Britain and the US have a genuine interest in seeing Ireland united, twould be a nawful awful shame if we were let down by the republic and sindo readership
Forget about Westminister elections as a reflection of nationalist parties. The biggest nationalist party by some distance are voted in on a mandate whereby they will not take their seat.
The Assembly elections are the only real currency to gauge the nationalist vote on.
And one thing that is frequently forgotten about the nationalist vote is the various dissident republican factions who will come out for a border poll vote but who do not vote in elections.
Voter turnout usually fluctuates between the 50-60% range. It will definitely hit upward of the 80% range for a border poll and I think that unseen vote will heavily lean toward a UI vote.
Nothing really backs up what you said, in fact what you say just shows a complete misunderstanding of the political situation up north.
NI Assembly elections show the exact same pattern of plateauing of the nationalist vote as Westminster ones do.
Also most of the constituencies with low turnouts are unionist ones. It seems to me there’s a higher disengagement and disillusionment with party politics among unionist communities than among nationalist ones, which obviously wouldn’t be the case in a border poll.
There is zero appeal of Gerry Adams to a UI vote, zero.
His usefulness during the GFA has been stated. Attracting to the extremes to a compromise agreement is entirely different to convincing the masses of a UI.
Gerry Adams won’t do that. Will SF? I personally doubt it, as part and parcel of SF’s mission is to legitimise their actions during the Troubles.
I read a small bit and it was awful dross . Two utter egotists . Them interviews are awful tbh - ffs who gives a fuck as to whether that UUCOAM believes in God .
The difference with those loyalist constituencies is that they happen to be urban constituencies that actually have quite high immigrant populations. You see it quite frequently these chaps are generally attacked by loyalists.
It would be a major shock if SF are not the biggest party next time about and it also looks likely that for the first time we will have more nationalist MLAs than unionist ones.
It’s obvious that the tide is definitely with a united Ireland. Unionism has shown all it has and all it ever had was rubbing the Catholics noses in it and it doesn’t know a different tune. This has brought them to the stage of disaster.
As much as some people want to stick their fingers in their ears about a UI, everything is aligning towards it.
