Are we looking at 2008 all over again?
We’ll be the ones eating just rice.
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It means Chinese property bonds traded in USD have basically all defaulted. This is a market with a lot more transparency than the internal market in China. So it’s perhaps a canary in a coal mine
Now there’s a fair chance the Chinese told them to default on the USD ones first, as they are less likely to have Chinese investors.
But it’s fair to say the Chinese property market is in a bad way. They have contained it thus far as they can do what they want over there. But it must be a fair auld mess underneath it all.
If only they could ship all these empty apartments to Ireland.
It seemed a relatively small overall amount in the grand scheme of things. I thought overall bonds would be in trillions
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Only the US ones these.
Yeah but still
They would be funded largely by Chinese investors. No need to be taking out foreign denominated debt.
So they are defaulting on loans borrowed from the US? Essentially burning those bond holders? Thats a fair whack, will sleepy Joe bring it up with Xi? Since the CCP control everything
It comes from the time when they used to send Norwich people into the mines first to see if they were safe
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The miners used to keep a canary with them and if the canary detected carbon monoxide in the air they stop singing which warned the workers to get out.
They were still in use until relatively recently.
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I thought the birds died first.
Misogyny club in session…
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A bit of overlap here with the toilet etiquette at work thread - if, after making a particularly heinous deposit, you are greeted on egress by a colleague going in the opposite direction, it can be polite to advise them to “send in a canary first”.
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This is great stuff. I can’t wait to regale my colleagues tomorrow with tales of defaulting bonds.
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Were they impressed
Yeah.
I think when I mentioned the bonds and the yield curve thing in quick succession I knocked him for six.
We’re both flummoxed as to why we’re not having a humdinger of a recession. As we sipped our coffees ina wonderfully over priced eatery at 1130 on a wet Thursday and the place humming.
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Recessions don’t happen when everyone is expecting them. At least not bad ones. It’s when everyone thinks that things will never be bad again you need to worry