For balance.
I mentioned the yield curve thing in conversation with a lad that’s a good bit cleverer than me and he laughed in my face.
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But. If I don’t expect one then I should be expecting one?
Is that what you’re saying?
Be brave when everyone’s fearful and fearful when everyone’s brave
Who was the bantesaurus that brought up yield curve here?
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You should have told him his coffee was shite.
Smart and ballsy
I think we are already in one albeit maybe not technical definition…there is going to be an absolute bloodbath in hospitality in the new year when increased minimum wage kicks in when those businesses can least afford it
Technically ireland is in recession. Back to back negative growth
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Worth keeping an eye on the corporation tax receipts. If they’re down again this month that will be interesting.
I’d say this recession is coming from the bottom up. People have fuck all disposable income
Electricity, diesel, mortgage rates, groceries all gone way up over 18 months
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Thats very true. Spending is down by all accounts across the board. I’d still be more concerned if the corporation tax continues to drop as it has done for the last couple of months. If that trend were to continue into early 2024 it would put the cat amongst the pigeons bigtime.
Spending is massively down. Completely masked by inflation …volumes down but spend is flat…the boil will be lanced shortly and the country will be in the better of it…government making it nigh on impossible to run a small business here with min wage, auto enrolment in pensions etc…this living wage target they are chasing will close down thousands of businesses and make getting part time work for young people impossible…zero joined up thinking …
Lack of housing the biggest risk to corporation tax receipts as multinationals can’t keep growing but slow death
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Wait until SF get into power and drive all investment out of Ireland. You ain’t seen nothing yet.
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Housing is a massive factor alright. On top of that though the free money tree days are over. That craic was never going to last. Debt is far more expensive. Servicing it particularly.
Might be no coincidence that our generous benefits which Varadkar admitted are an outlier vs other EU countries are now being considered a lot more closely.
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A mild recession is good for the soul. Purifys a man. Reminds you that you aren’t a billy big bollox and you never were.
A severe recession is a different story tbf
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Thats more so to do with a hairline recession isnt it?
We’re still a cheaper labour option than the US so that will keep the MNCs interested but we need to sort the accommodation issue, its starting to hurt us.
Thing is that it is bad in most other places and getting worse. The corner has been turned here.
i hope you’re right Tim.
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Ok so.
On the basis of the fear here I’m bullish about the medium term.
Drive on lads.