Private Equity firms are starting to take hair cuts and trying to sell assets. If things get worse they’ll just starting handing assets over.
Look at Blanchardstown Centre, Blackstone bought it for €950m, they gave the keys to GS as they had a loan of €750m and walked away. GS are trying to offload it for €650/700m but they would probably take less if there was anyone to buy it.
Oaktree bought The Square for €250m financed by AIB to the tune of €191m. The Square is for sale now for €170m but again they would probably take less just to get rid of it.
The office blocks are next. Anyone trying to refinance any loan now is fucked. They will do what Blackstone did and just hand the keys to whoever the loan is with and they will covert the loan.
November and December is always quiet for recruitment but I understand recruitment consultants are not getting the usual calls of we want x, y and z in the new year so their books are starting to look bare for next year.
I still think there is some money knocking about but people are starting to pull back on spending, that normally gets worse in January and if it doesn’t reverse in February or March then things might start going downhill.
FG might just pull an election around April when the weather turns hoping to save seats and let SF in to take the flak. There’ll be there’s weeks of uncertainty trying to cobble a Government together.
Sentiment is everything. Might be an interesting summer.