TFK Opinion Poll 2 - leadership

There are currently 15 real ministries and then a few makey uppy ones.

If FF had say 55 seats and SF 30 then you’d be looking at a about 5 SFers in real gubbernment ministries my guess would be in this order.

ML Tanaiste
Doherty
O’Broin
O’Reilly
AN Other maybe O’Snodaigh although that would be a very Dublin centric SF cohort

O’Reilly would be nowhere near health, it’s too high profile a ministry, in the unlikely event SF even got to pick a health minister it would not be her.

SF might get finance, in which case it would be O’Doherty and three other nothing ministerial positions.
If they didn’t get finance they might get two decent ministries like housing and health, which would be Doherty and O’Broin

Not sure how Micky Martin can turn around and go into Government with SF anyway so I think it’s moot. FF & FG in the reverse of the current agreement seems most likely

Foreign Affairs?

Maybe they could pull a James Dooge and appoint someone senior to the Senate who could serve in cabinet.

Hard to see either FF or FG give that to SF, too high profile with Brexit I think and too conflicted with the Ministers role in the North.

They can’t have justice either for the similar PR reasons you’d think

Agreed. Foreign Affairs is a great gig, just make sure it’s someone who polishes up. My Granny’s main concern was that we not be made a show to God of abroad.
In this constituency people are only wondering if John McGuinnes has burned too many FF bridges to get something even if he does bring in a third FF seat.
I’m very interested to see where his transfers go. He canvassed my parents and never mentioned FF or his running mates, told my Dad it’s the hardest canvass he’s ever done. " Tea and soft talk" is not cutting it

If SF are in government Cullinane will be a minister. So will O’Reilly, gender diversity will guarantee that.

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I’m not sure why FG would throw Miceal that lifeline. All it does is leave the next election as a tap in for SF

the issue for me with S.F. is that most of them are ultra careerist politicians . The same broadly for most others too if truth told . They will be part of government within 5 years and the old mantra of campaigning in poetry but having to govern in hard prose could be a challenge .

We will see . I see the Quinn and SCC issues as having little effect

They were more relatable to me with guys like Adams, Ferris, Ellis etc there.

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O’Snodaigh as Minister for Education would be some craic given that he comes across as somebody who never received one.

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As it stands going by PP’s odds you’d be looking at something like;

53 FF, 35 FG, 29 SF, leaving 42 others

The only numbers from that which work for two parties is FF plus SF. But MM has been very vociferous that he will not go in with them.

FG & others assuming you could collect everyone of the hodge podge (you couldn’t) doesn’t add, and SF & others the same.

FG & SF doesn’t work on it’s own, but it is close at 77, so with a few independents, greens or labour or something it could work, or if either had a better than expected day. Again though Leo has ruled it out.

FF & Others is an option but they’d need to find realistically 30 of the others (as it looks at the moment) to form a government. The Greens could get 10, labour around 6, soc dems ,maybe 3 or 4.
Then you are still ten short. Now there is independents like the HR’s and others who might have a natural home with them. But fucking hell it’s some hodge podge to try to cobble together a coherent policy and a stable government with.
I don’t think it’s a realistic option unless FF, labour & the greens outperform expectations.

So what’s left is FF in a minority government with FG propping it up, or one of FF & FG eating their words and going in with SF.

Or a hung dail.

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I’m utterly sick of the phrase “career politician”. It’s a meaningless, empty pejorative. Politics is as legitimate a career as any other - I’d say more legitimate in fact as you can make a serious difference to people’s lives if you take it seriously. What matters is somebody’s bona fides in terms of why they’re in it and who they’re in it for. The ultimate career politicians are the Healy Raes/McGrath/Lowry/Grealish etc. as they know by playing a character which will appeal to gobshites they have a handy number for life, with no responsibility. Labour got vilified for taking on responsibility. SF don’t want responsibility, they want to stay out to gain popularity rather than get some policies implemented and risk a drop in popularity next time. If people want to use the phrase career politician, let them use it about SF and those who are actually careerist, as in those who think of their long term security and popularity in politics rather than those who risk getting kicked out of the Dail in an effort to do something worthwhile.

That’s a very simplified view.

SF do want to stay out of goverment though. Eoin O’Broin has some very impressive ideas for tackling the housing crisis and I think he could be an excellent minister but it’s clearly less important to SF to try and get some of some of those ideas implemented now and benefit real people’s lives than to stand back and let FF make another mess.

I think it would be easier for Leo to eat his words than MM, it’s all been parsed in policy terms but if FG go to the low 30’s, it might not even be his call to make.

MM has definitely been more trenchant on the position. A FG/SF government makes absolutely no sense ideologically, but it is Ireland after all.

Did you miss the big showpiece video Leo put out the other day going through all their front bench making it clear they wouldn’t go near SF?

Hung Dail with both FFG ruling out SF would be tasty.

They went in with the Stickies in 1994 .

They’d both be punished by the electorate in that scenario you’d imagine, 9/1 for a second election in 2020

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