WHATEVER about the economic outlook, Leinster’s football figures are not encouraging. But then they haven’t been for some time and are showing few signs of improving as the first decade of the new Millennium gallops towards the finish line
First, some grim facts which will sadden the hearts of the Leinster community as they prepare for the launch of the championship when Carlow play Louth in Parnell Park next Sunday:
1 If a Leinster team fails to win the All-Ireland title this year, it will be the first time since the 1930s that they have gone a full decade without a visit from Sam Maguire.
2 It’s 10 years since Leinster last won the title, when Graham Geraghty captained Meath to glory in 1999.
3 Leinster haven’t been represented in the All-Ireland final since Meath played Galway in 2001. Even then, Meath were beaten by nine points, the highest losing margin since 1979.
4 Dublin, by far Leinster’s most successful county, haven’t won the All-Ireland title for 14 years, their longest gap since the barren run between 1942 and 1958. They haven’t even been in a final for 14 years, the longest absence in their championship history.
5 Leinster have never gone eight years without having a team in the All-Ireland senior final, but will reach that unfortunate milestone if they are not represented in Croke Park on September 20 next.
Leinster folk may regard all those dismal realities as part of a past which is irrelevant this year but there’s more. It’s comes in the form of an analysis of how Leinster counties compared with the rest of the country in the recent National League.
Leinster had their Division 1 quota cut to one after Westmeath failed to take a single point from seven games, leaving Dublin as their only representatives in the top flight. Wexford dropped from Division 2 after taking just one of a possible 14 points, while Laois were only two places above them, having finished their campaign with a 20-point drubbing by Monaghan.
Longford dropped out of Division 3, which leaves Leinster’s break-up for the 2010 league as follows: Division 1: One (Dublin); Division 2: Four (Kildare, Westmeath, Laois, Meath); Division 3: Three (Wexford, Offaly, Louth); Division 4: Four (Longford, Carlow, Wicklow, Kilkenny)
And if all that wasn’t bad enough, Leinster had a miserable return in their clashes against teams from the other three provinces, winning only 13 of 60 games (see table).
Connacht had six more wins from almost half as many games; Ulster had twice as many from five fewer games while Munster comfortably topped the table in a season where they captured the Division 1, 2 and 3 titles. Given those figures, it’s hardly surprising that Leinster teams failed to qualify for any of the finals
League form has tended to be treated sceptically as a guide to the championship, but those figures are still a damning indictment of Leinster football. Dublin only scrambled clear of relegation trouble on the final day – indeed, if Donegal had beaten Derry on the same afternoon, Leinster would have had nobody in the top group next year.
Kildare were really the only Leinster team to show consistent form in this year’s league, but were squeezed out by Monaghan and Cork as they pressed to escape from Division 2.
And yet for all the gloom which Leinster’s figures indicate, there’s a feeling in the province that the scene could change dramatically at any time. Having previously beaten Down, Wexford were much too good for Ulster champions Armagh in last year’s All-Ireland quarter-final, while Kildare beat Cavan, Limerick and Fermanagh before losing by three points to Cork in their quarter-final
Which brings us to Dublin. They have the best provincial record of any county over the past four seasons, having remained unbeaten in 14 successive games, but have been unable to build on that with any degree of consistency once encountering ‘outside’ opposition. That suggests that they lose confidence when confronted with the ‘big boys’ or else – and this is more likely – Leinster is so mediocre that dominating it has been relatively easy.
Very often, there’s an over-reaction to Dublin games because they’re played in front of huge crowds. A full Croke Park generates a great atmosphere which, in turn, can create the impression of a superior standard when, in reality, it’s quite modest. That’s the only plausible explanation for what has happened to Dublin in All-Ireland quarter-finals and semi-finals over recent seasons
Only Kerry have qualified for more quarter-finals than Dublin since the introduction of the new format in 2001, but whereas the Kingdom have reached six finals – winning three from eight attempts, Dublin haven’t qualified for a single final despite reaching the last eight on no fewer than seven occasions.
qualifiers
They will set out in four weeks’ time under Pat Gilroy, their fourth manager this decade, with some Dublin fans believing they would be better off to lose to Meath in the first round and head for the qualifiers, a route which Tyrone have used effectively.
However, Mickey Harte is the first to acknowledge that he would take the direct provincial route every time if circumstances didn’t dictate differently
The same should apply to every county because once you have the safety net removed, it can be a long drop to oblivion. So then, Leinster have one more summer to rescue the decade from being a total wipe-out. The omens don’t look good, but then just as periods of dominance always appear as if they will go on forever, barren spells never seem to have exit routes. They do though.
Whether this is a green shoots year for Leinster remains to be seen, but one thing is certain – the province sure needs it. After all, they can’t keep relying on Kilkenny hurlers indefinitely. Then again, maybe they can.
NFL 2009
Leinster in the basement:
Table shows how counties from each province fared against opposition from the other three provinces. Leinster teams have by far the worst record.
P W D L
Munster 40 27 3 10
Connacht 33 19 5 9
Ulster 55 26 7 22
Leinster 60 13 7 40