Bobs Worth should win the GC but is opposable on price and lacks a prep
SDC form this season has been patchy and Irish Hennessy winners have a poor record. Late jockey change far from ideal
Silvianaco Conte has had the best campaign of any of these and should be primed, not convinced he’ll stay however
Long Run, Ex winner and won best trial for this, the King George. His jockey is a negative but an even bigger one is his run in the race last year
Cape Tribulation Will be ridden for a place and could well get one, won’t win though
The Giant Bolster, Ran the race of his life last year, will be doing well to repeat it
Captain Chris, Back to his best this year, and unlucky in both the King George and Ascot Chase(won by Cue Card). This one came up the hill like a train to win an Arkle, we know he stays 3m and in fact he and may well have been crying out for this trip all along. Has the requirsite class, available at 16s and represents the value in an open race
Slightly off topic but has anyone noticed the Barney Curley type gamble taking place at Wolverhampton tonight? 4 horses that haven’t raced in 3 years all backed from 20/1 plus to favourite.
[quote=“Mac, post: 748463, member: 109”]For anyone who’s bothered reading here’s the reasoning for my selections.
In the Triumph, Our Conor has been the pick of the Irish and I don’t think the ground will matter a toss to him. His normally bullish owners have been notably quieter in the build up to this week. Dessie never brings a horse to Cheltenham without it being prepped properly so this lad will be spot on. He’s deserved favourite and I’m not worried about the drift this morning. The Irish horse have a shocking record in this race so my main worry is that we don’t have a grasp of what it takes to win this race and that maybe our 4yo’s are never as good as we think. Flaxen Flares win the other day has eased some of my concerns on this. On Kashmir Peak, I think he’s savagely overpriced. Similar profile to Countrywide Flame who won this race last year. Not much more detail needed.
Princeton Plains looks like a pure plot horse. Its a Gimme is a better horse but McCoy chooses this fella so that tells me all I need to know. We were all sick of hearing about Shadow Catcher on here last year with DB talking him up for the Triumph. Looking back at that race Carberry gave him no chance. He’s had cheek pieces fitted this year and as Laz says he looks like he’s been lined up for this race all season. Once Davy doesn’t try to go up a closed gap by the inside rail we should be ok.
Our Vinnie reminds me of Back in Focus. A dour staying cunt who’ll annoy the fuck out of you. He’s the perfect kind of horse for Carberry. Put him asleep out the back and deliver him when others are tiring. If they’re turning for home and the arse is cocked high in the sky then we’ll know whats going to happen. Ballycasey a NR in this race now.
On the Gold Cup, my earlier post explains the reasoning for SDC. Long Run wasn’t good enough last year so I don’t see why he is this year. Bobs Worth is probably a bit too short for me. Nicholls and Ruby know whats required to win this race more than most. SC does have star quality which is probably why we expected so much from him at an early age. He’s ok at the track, his jumping can let him down at times but he will have been schooled to death for this race. Nicholls horses not having as bad a festival as everyone thinks. Zarkander just wasn’t good enough. Celestial Halo ran a blinder yesterday behind Solwhit. Nicholls just doesn’t have the quality of horses this year as he had in previous years, apart from this fella.
Foxhunters is a lottery. Salsify & Chapoturgeon will likely fight it out but I’m taking a punt on my favourite for this race last year who never got in. Jamie should school him around and won’t give him a hard race unless he’s going to have a chance. Presume he’s being aimed at the Grand National again and Elliotts comments this morning wouldn’t fill me with a whole load of confidence. But the horse is still probably in the top 3 pointers in Ireland so demands respect on that basis alone.
Toner broke my heart in this race last year. Make Your Mark is almost thrown in at the bottom. Danny Lavery gave Moscow Mannon a peach of a ride in the bumper last year so jockey is no issue. From reading Elliotts comments, he wanted to have Toner in a chase but couldn’t get him into any so had to revert to this. Could be pure paper talk though and this race could have been the plan all year long. Make Your Mark is a better horse than Toner though and I think the UK handicapper has made a balls of this.
In the last, Henderson usually does his best to win this. Carberry gave an exhibition in this last year on Belvano. Anquetta was behind him in 4th. He’s had a lighter campaign this year and gets in on a fairly similar mark to last year with a superior jockey on board. As mentioned above Geraghty said he was due to ride him and I can’t find out why he’s not. Either way, he’s a value bet for me.[/quote]
Can you flesh that out for us a bit Mac?
