He may. It’s a constituency that votes in two sides - Drogheda and surrounds, Dundalk and surrounds.
The latter is covered by Breathnach and O Murchu, while Drogheda is more an area for Munster and O Dowd. I think if Nash gets in (Drogheda area), McGahon might get in as it means the 2 seats for Drogheda area covered. There are currently 2 TDs there to 3 in the Dundalk area (well, Gerry Adams is closer to Dundalk than Drogheda and Dundalk was where his constituency office was).
Of course, Fitzpatrick getting in previously might indicate a strong FG vote in Dundalk, but he also has a part of the GAA vote
McGahon is doing serious campaigning. He had an assault case hanging over him, but that must have got sorted out ?