Would like to see that poll again if
- A deal is done on Brexit.
- If Brexit doesn’t happen.
Lock them into a contract quick… All the loud mouth bigoted unionists have alreadys said theyd leave if the Island was united… That would be the greatest thing to happen this Island if we were shot of those scaremongering, bigoted bastards.
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Everything depends on Brexit
A lot of united Ireland fetishists want as bad a Brexit outcome for the north as possible - hard border, economic decimation and all - to create a disruptive event that they think would push the north into a united Ireland
They don’t really care about the deeply negative consequences that a bad Brexit outcome would likely have for ordinary people’s lives - a possible return to violence, almost certain mass unemployment, destruction of public services, funding cuts, and the poverty, ill health and premature deaths that would result - many thousands of lives made a misery or ended in other words
Sadly I think there’s a significant strain of such opinion in Sinn Fein and that’s why I no longer support Sinn Fein
It’s why the DUP position is so stupid.
They are witless and have no ability to see past their own short term bigoted rhetoric
One thing I can see their point on though is that an NI only backstop is not an ideal solution - it may be better than a hard border in Ireland, but it creates massive tensions of its own, as a hell of a lot of unionists suddenly feel they are being pushed into a united Ireland by stealth - it’s something that was never voted on
That is not the way a united Ireland should happen
It needs to be allowed become inevitable through demographics and that will still take several decades
Brexit has been a very unfortunate event for the north - the pre-2016 status quo really needed another few decades to bed in, imperfect as it was
Brexit just picks at the not fully healed scars and threatens to reopen them in a big way
A premature border poll will ramp up tensions to unbearable levels - it will totally divide six county society and make Brexit itself look like a picnic
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I take it you voted against the GFA
Anybody else would take from that that I voted for it, which I did - it was the first time I was ever able to vote on anything
You, predictably, take the opposite
Nobody should be surprised that you’d get things completely upside down though
Is that just a sense or feeling you get or have their been some utterances to that effect? I see John O’Dowd is challenging Michelle O’Neill for VP, but I think it’s Mary Lou more so than Michelle who’s performing well below par (but not in a good way). Yer man Chris Hazzard is being pushed more front and centre lately and seems like a good operator to me.
It really needs “civic society” up there to show a bit of courage and call out the DUP though. 56% voted to remain, a higher % again certainly don’t want a no deal Brexit which is being foisted on them by these backward bigots. Everything the DUP has done in recent years has been in bad faith and they basically want to repartition Ireland and are happy to be ruled directly by right wing extremists from London.
It needs business associations, employer groups, chambers of commerce, special interest groups and high profile personalities to call them out. It’d be even more significant if it was done or led by people from a unionist persuasion. I want to hear from Stephen “Winker” Watson, Gloria Hunniford, Rory Best, Christine Lampard, Jimmy Nesbitt, Daryl Gurney and people of that ilk. Surely they don’t want a no deal Brexit which will cause carnage up there?
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So you voted for it but now you’re against it…
Jimmy Nesbitt has spoken already, he wants a union of Ireland.
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Fair play to him for expressing that view publicly and not getting cold feet.
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There’s been a start on this. Business associations have criticised the DUP. I believe it Newton Emerson thought it was an unprecedented action IIRC.
What Northern Ireland really needs now is for Rory Best to burst into his little son’s room and burn all of the kid’s England football team paraphernalia - the posters, the bedclothes, everything. And film it.
Mary lou is a disaster…Flailing around from crisis to crisis hoping to land a few points. No strategy. No vision. No leadership.
Who picks up the pieces if there is a UI? Some cunt like Mee-hall or Leo? The kinks would have to be ironed out… A serious road map laid in place… And a first class ticket purchased for Arlene to any destination of her choice…one way.
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Charlie Lawson is conspicuous by his absence on your list there. I’d love to hear his opinions on future Irish unity so I would.
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Sinn Fein would certainly deny that they want as bad a Brexit outcome as possible, and they are not so stupid as to publicly say it, but their rhetoric in terms of looking to force a border poll as quickly as possible to me strongly says that they would not be unhappy with a bad Brexit outcome
If Brexit was cancelled or if there was a BINO which kept the same circumstances, a border poll in say the next five years would be very unlikely to pass in my view, things would likely settle down again
It’s the current uncertainty and the expected chaos if there’s a bad Brexit outcome which is leading to an increase in support for a united Ireland now
If that chaos was to not materialise, a border poll would be much less likely to pass
The GFA plotted a path of status quo, it brought peace in the short to medium term, but also contained a sort of ticking time bomb as demographics inevitably move towards the tipping point of a pro-united Ireland majority
How to deal with that was always going to be fraught, but because it would be inevitable, society, particularly the PUL community, would have time to deal with that inevitability, and trust could be gradually built up so that a consensus could emerge as to the practical realities of how a united Ireland would work, to work out how the transition could be as smooth as possible
But without Brexit, that tipping point was still some time away, several decades probably, 2050 would be somewhat realistic
I think Sinn Fein see Brexit as a sort of black swan event which unexpectedly pushes forward the timetable considerably, ie. to some time in the next three or four years
Ultimately they are a united Ireland party above all, and they suddenly see the prize
They see a chaotic Brexit as a means to an end
This new generation of SF leaders are the first that were not involved in the movement, and perhaps in some ways they feel they need to prove their Republican credentials in a way Adams and McGuinness didn’t
Mary Lou most obviously
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I think that’s a bit of a leap.
I would say there is an element of truth in hoping for a disastrous outcome that causes some sort of political chaos, but that sort of mischief is prevalent all over Ireland at this stage to be honest. For all the talk of the carnage that might ensue there is a massive increase in sentiment among the general Irish population for just watching the Brits implode.
And I can’t see Adams or McGuinness handling it much differently. I don’t think Mary Lou has been a good leader at all and I don’t have much time for SF as a party but I’m not sure what else they can do at this point. I think they are best saying as little as possible other than sticking to the same message about no hard border. It’s a fairly simple truth and has widespread support everywhere. It’s not SF’s problem to solve and no political gain can come from changing that position.
I think FG have spoken too much recently in talking about checks that might have to be put in place etc. It’s softening up the message and making the unpalatable seem more acceptable if it does come to that. I can see some merit in getting commentators or the likes of Bertie Ahern talking about a new NI backstop actually not being a NI backstop at all so that there’s a path for the Tories and (highly unlikely but still) the DUP to backtrack and support the same agreement dressed up differently with a different name. But nothing SF suggests will ever get traction with those parties anyway.
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Which is very short sighted, because we will be badly affected by it - it’s our version of their “get on with it” - we shouldn’t “get on with it”, there is still a chance this can be salvaged, but it will require the Tories to be ousted and we have no control over that
Politics has become the new light entertainment for a lot of people, especially when it’s taking place outside your jurisdiction
But it isn’t light entertainment, it’s really serious and we stand to lose a lot from it
I don’t see what they can do
That’s what the reality would be
I don’t believe it’s softening up any message
I don’t believe the Irish government can do any more at this stage
The ball is very much out of their court now
What I really fucking object to is the likes of Lucinda Creighton sticking their oar in and telling the government to capitulate
Isn’t she a paid lobbyist for Brexiteer interests
I suppose that’s it really.
56% voted remain. My own analysis of that figure is that all of the Nationalists and some soft core middle class Unionists, many of them of the Alliance variety voted remain and that the hard core die hard Unionists voted en bloc to Brexit. In a way it is remarkable that as many as 44% voted to leave. You are effectively looking at 80% of the Unionists voting leave. So it is entirely logical for the DUP to play the Brexit card and as hard a Brexit card as possible as that must be what their voters want.
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