I remember Ming starting off in politics registering himself as A. MING just to be on top of the ballot. Cute hoor behind the scruffiness.
Is the Wallace/Daly joint junket under pressure?
Cynthia in with a good shout to become the first FF female MEP in 40 years and the first MEP from Carlow.
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I was going to give McNamara a good preference and i missed him until the end. He ended up getting 7 or 8
Some fairly mad results in those other two first counts.
Nina Carbery getting 70k+. Prototype celebrity candidate without any substance. Same as incumbent Maria Walsh who garnered a similar amount. Ciarán fucking Mullooly getting nearly 60k+ on that Independent Ireland ticket. Mick Wallace still commanding 50k+. Derek Blighe 20k+ & getting more than Rory “Gaffs” Hearne & the Labour rep.
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I’m going to call it as Lynn and then Cuffe (edging out NBoylan by < 100 votes)
| Andrews | 62147 | 17% | 1719 | 63866 | 4.00% | 473 | 64339 | 5.00% | 740 | 65079 | 9.00% | 1698 | 66777 | 4.00% | 1150 | 67927 | 10.00% | 3831 | 71758 | 12.50% | 4789 | 76547 | 1 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doherty | 61344 | 17% | 1165 | 62509 | 2.50% | 296 | 62805 | 4.00% | 592 | 63397 | 7.50% | 1415 | 64812 | 3.50% | 1007 | 65819 | 10.00% | 3831 | 69650 | 12.50% | 4789 | 74439 | 2 | ||||||
| Boylan L | 35431 | 10% | 2056 | 37487 | 39.00% | 4611 | 42098 | 7.50% | 1109 | 43207 | 11.50% | 2169 | 45376 | 10.00% | 2876 | 48252 | 25.00% | 9579 | 57831 | 22.50% | 8621 | 66452 | 3 | ||||||
| Cuffe | 32204 | 9% | 1533 | 33737 | 4.00% | 473 | 34210 | 2.25% | 333 | 34543 | 11.00% | 2075 | 36618 | 11.00% | 3164 | 39782 | 25.00% | 9579 | 49361 | 22.50% | 8621 | 57982 | 4 | ||||||
| O Riordain | 30733 | 8% | 1520 | 32253 | 4.25% | 502 | 32755 | 2.50% | 370 | 33125 | 11.50% | 2169 | 35294 | 10.50% | 3020 | 38314 | 9.00% | -38314 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
| Boylan N | 30637 | 8% | 8978 | 39615 | 7.00% | 828 | 40443 | 40.00% | 5916 | 46359 | 5.00% | 943 | 47302 | 7.50% | 2157 | 49459 | 7.00% | 2682 | 52141 | 15.00% | 5747 | 57888 | |||||||
| Daly | 26855 | 7% | 2904 | 29759 | 7.00% | 828 | 30587 | 10.00% | 1479 | 32066 | 10.00% | 1886 | 33952 | 38.00% | 10929 | 44881 | 7.00% | 2682 | 47563 | -47563 | 0 | ||||||||
| Smith | 21577 | 6% | 2707 | 24284 | 7.00% | 828 | 25112 | 10.00% | 1479 | 26591 | 11.50% | 2169 | 28760 | -28760 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Gibney | 16319 | 4% | 1330 | 17649 | 4.00% | 473 | 18122 | 5.00% | 740 | 18862 | -18862 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| Doolan | 10766 | 3% | 1056 | 11822 | -11822 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Considine | 10693 | 3% | 3210 | 13903 | 7.50% | 887 | 14790 | -14790 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Right | 26582 | 7% | -26582 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Left | 5662 | 2% | -5662 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NOT T/F | 4066 | 1623 | 2032 | 4338 | 4457 | 6130 | 14996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13% | 15% | 14% | 23% | 15% | 16% | 32% |
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That Rory Hearne vote is hilarious.
That’s commitment to the cause/forum.
I think I can figure it out but please provide your key assumptions in bullet point format.
That’s a cold one liner although I did laugh.
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I didn’t bother with the quota which would actually skew things a little in Cuffe’s favour (because votes going to government parties and gaining a surplus are more likely to transfer on to him).
Basically just distributing the votes. Looking at Doolan I gave 39% to Lynn Boylan. Actually that’s low but how and ever.
For aontu I gave 40% to NBoylan which I think is generous but I wanted to see if that was catchable and it is, just about.
But I probably don’t leave enough votes not transferring on and some of the splits are fairly arbitrary but it’s more a case of this is what it could look like and then see if candidates are ahead of or behind that curve.
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I’m still holding out hope that Gibney’s transfers tilt more to AOR than Cuffe (no offence) & we stay ahead of him & then benefit from his elimination to keep ahead of N Boylan. But there’s also the Brid Smith → Daly angle that could scupper my best laid plans.
Fucking yerras
https://twitter.com/OSullivanJennie/status/1800287734667354479?t=fe-sjJ1AsOQJ-QIOdazDeA&s=19
5 Likes
I think Boylan is getting votes from far right but also any angry folk or antigovernment… i think he’ll gain from both smith and daly while aodhan and cuffe both split the gibney vote.
Could well be the case.
I was offsetting that with the likes of Joan Hopkins who did well for SD in locals and if her supporters voted for Gibney they’d potentially be more green than Labour.
But it’s highly possibly it flips the other way. The hope really is that whichever is eliminates goes heavily to the other at the expense of the creep.
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Yeah think that’s a bit of the case alright. But while the Gibney vote splits it should come back to either Aodhan or Ciaran when one of them is eliminated.
The Smith and Daly voters transferring to Boylan is a concern alright. But they’re established candidates with somewhat established support bases who hopefully see more nuance than just anti government. (And that nuance might be Aodhan).
He’s right, and that’s frightening
Blighe symbolises pure hate
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He’s a believer in the Great Replacement Theory,
That there is a conspiracy to destroy the white European race s and replace with blacks.
That’s beyond being annoyed at the high level of immigration into the country.
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Like WTAF???
are these people really from the same country/century as me