5.4% and 3.5%. Paltry enough numbers in the scheme of things, thankfully, but you never know what a GE vote would get.
Johnny Mythen in Wexford got 818 votes in the LEA in Enniscorthy in 2019, 3.7% and didnt get a council seat when there was 6 available. 8 months later he went for the GE in Wexford, polled 18,717 votes, romped home in first with 17% of available votes. And he pure useless. A traffic cone would be more effective.
I know the greens are in government with FF & there’s the women supporting women angle but my reasoning was O’Sullivan & Wallace might command support from similar circles. A kinda anarchist, anti-establishment thing, albeit that would be misguided. It’ll be interesting to see how it falls. I will admit I’d neglected to factor in Kelleher’s surplus in my thinking.
I suspect you’re correct on this and that Wallace would be a more likely beneficiary of O’Sullivan’s transfers than Ní Mhurchu. O’Sullivan comes from the anti-war left of the Green Party.
Wallace could have a problem in that a lot of O’Sullivan’s transfers will surely go to Funchion. But there are big numbers in play here and you don’t need that much of an advantage over your direct rival to overtake them.
21k of O Sullivans tally to be distributed are transfers, so looking at those who have been eliminated and what could be transfered might give Wallace a chance for the anti establishment vote.