Best of luck, we are playing you lot on 11 April and I would hate you to miss it.
Close schools. Ban travel to infected areas. Ramp up contact tracing. Cancel mass gatherings.
Youāre arguing for the Italian method. Let it spread then lock it
Iāll be in the shape of my life after hand mixing a base for my shed.
I openly admit to being a weak cunt
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I debate in perfectly good faith with fact based discussions. Iāve never made any claim that the gov actions are without question. I do take issue with simplistic solutions, political conspiracy theories or the assumption that everything being done is wrong.
Speaking about facts - whereās that quote you posted as fact earlier?
Wont do you much good against our speedsters
Everywhere is infected. Ban all travel ?
Ban travel in Ireland to clusters ?
Youāre proving my point again. Trump-esque.
I asked you a question about what the magic number is before you think there should be lockdowns imposed. How many deaths? You havenāt answered
Except that is not what you said.
The āmarchā of the virus there began around February 21st. But even if we roll forward a few days to around 445 cases (with 12 deaths) on Feb 26th, per head of population around the same as us right now, they had undertaken just 9,600 tests. Thatās well below our test rate at this point in time.
In fact, given that it really exploded in a geographic area of Italy, we should walk back a few more days on that and the test numbers are even lower. Around February 22nd (which in reality is the stage weāre at on the curve) Italy started to shut down schools and areas impacted. Weāve had schools closed for 10 days now.
The high positive test percentage in Italy after cases ramped up suggest it was rampant there before those dates. Our positive test % is at UK rates and as Iāve shown above, we had conducted more tests per head of population at the same stage as them.
Have we had our schools closed 10 days?
1 is imminent
2 is effectively in place, travel is shutting down
3 is more complicated than letting volunteers at it. Who vets them, supplies the infrastructure, suspends GDPR etc
4 Will be happening soon enough too Iād imagine
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Yes weāve had an impacted school closed.
Well banning mass gatherings has more or less been done already. Schools will be closed shortly by the looks of things, flights to Italy are stopping friday and they are more or less empty already. Contact tracing is being ramped up already.
Everything youāve said is either happening or will happen soon, but how long do you think that can be sustained? If we pull the trigger too early, then weāll be in lockdown for months and then thereāll be a whole load of unintended consequences that could be as bad as if not worse than what we are already facing.
Iāve absolutely no doubt the Government will make a balls of this. But how can they not, itās basically unprecedented in our lifetimes, and they donāt know what the right thing to do is, no one does. They can only play it as they see it, and so far theyāve been doing ok. They could do better of course, but itās an impossible situation.
We will go into lockdown, but we cannot do it prematurely.
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Why schools over other places (work/mass/ etc)
Closing schools implicitly closes or near closes most businesses. Do you think this could be sustained indefinitely?
Also - seeing as most of the world now has cases would you suspend travel to all countries with a case? What about internal travel - should inter-county travel be prevented?
Should public transport be suspended?
Should hotels be ordered to close?
Should hospitals be emptied of non-urgent cases at this stage?
At what point would you start the rationing - wait til complete supply chain melt-down or get a head start?
How many days would the rest of the world need no new cases before you lift your rules?
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Weāve never feared a few lightweight townies, although weāll likely be lining out without our footballers so wonāt be a very strong team.
Youāre disagreeing with basic mathematical facts.
I know youāre angry at being wrong on basic statistics, but try and move on before you make an even bigger eejit of yourself.
According to the scientists whoāve looked at it, they think this will only have a modest impact.
How fast can they limp?
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I donāt know. Iāve repeatedly said Iām not an expert but I suspect experts have some level - what has been suggested is when āclusteringā arises, whatever that is defined as.
I completely agree itās a fine balance though and Iād imagine there no hard rule on it - just lots of expert theory and modelling