It’s off now anyway
Who will be the Constantin Gurdgiev and Paul Somerville of COVID-19?
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Or it may not
Yeah they’ll be quarantined
No they’re not.
Realistically they’re 7 weeks in.
That isn’t being optimistic, as their restrictions were far more draconian than what we can manage.
These far right types seem to be crawling with it.
Beginning to fizzle out I see, a bit like Liverpools season
This is an issue: You only know the official cases, not the true ones. But you need to know the true ones. How can you estimate the true ones? It turns out, there’s a couple of ways. And I have a model for both, so you can play with the numbers too (direct link to copy the model).
First, through deaths. If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).
Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.
Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined.
If we look into the detail, we realize that 19 of these deaths were from one cluster, which might not have spread the virus widely. So if we consider those 19 deaths as one, the total deaths in the state is four. Updating the model with that number, we still get ~3,000 cases today.
Turns out riding sheep must be an antidote
You want us to read that again?
When was the first case in china?
Tldr: X + Y x 1000 = A big number.
a good few faces I am more familiar with arising out of it anways
WhatsApp msg from Oglaigh na h-Eireann doing the rounds. @Fagan_ODowd and @anon61878697 will have to don the green again
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First tests were January 13th and first positives the 18th. Early Jan they knew there was an issue.
In terms of serious preventative measures, you are talking January 23rd.
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Conspiracy theorist