Due to fly out to Spain tomorrow. Lockdown here or over there. Iâll take it over thereâŚ
Truth. No work to go to here.
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Youâll look good over board at least
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Was just into Galway there for a couple hours. Not much of the old social distancing to be seen. Seemed like a usual busy Friday afternoon. Pubs jammed with lads watching the racing. Spitting and belching all over each other outside when having a smoke. There was even a coronavirus themed hen party parading down Shop Street replete with masks and gloves on.
Only when the pubs shut is when many will begin to take it seriously.
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I had to go into little island a while ago and drop off forms. The rain was apocalyptic and there was fuck all cars on the n25.
I stopped at a deli counter on the way home and the mood was very sombre
The pubs thing will have to be addressed at some stage when itâs clear that there is a cohort who wonât behave responsibly. Not much point in schools/work etc scaling back if lads are just going on the piss.
While the airports are open itâs all a little pointless. With no travel restrictions or quarantines on entry itâs like letting in a funeral of travellers with machetes to pubs and thinking youâll deal with them after drink inside
So here are the two scenarios, best case first.
There are already four coronaviruses that cause the common cold (there are also lots of other common cold viruses, just not coronaviruses), two were identified in the 1960s, and two after the SARS outbreak in 2003. Nobody give a shit about the common cold, itâs just a nuisance. But, the common cold can be serious, and all four coronaviruses can cause pneumonia and death.
In a study done in New York in 1999-2003, of those infected with coronavirus (the two viruses known at the time), the full range of outcomes was seen, most had no or mild symptoms, but about 15% required hospitalization and 3% of those died. Those numbers sound familiar.
In summary, this scenario is that the novel coronavirus is the fifth we have seen and will evolve like the other four, a nuisance for most people infected, but not to be sneezed at.
The second scenario is this will evolve like a seasonal flu, somewhat worse than a cold but nowhere near the seriousness or mortality rate of the 2003 SARS outbreak. This first season will be the worst but it should settle down as people develop immunity and hopefully a vaccine is developed.
Because of itâs structure (almost identical to SARS), this virus is not likely to mutate very much. Itâs thus unlikely a more serious strain will emerge, SARS-1 disappeared after one season. SARS-2 is obviously much more contagious than SARS-1, but it might just die out in the same fashion, or at least become less virulent as people develop immunity. Not to say it couldnât mutate, but itâs less likely to do so than the flu.
Iâm feeling optimistic this morning so Iâm going with scenario 1.
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Some amount of teachers on the lash too
I really think thatâs not true - they are two separate issues
Travel numbers are already plummeting to negligible levels. Just ask @Batigol about how busy Dublin Airport is. In addition, a lot of those returning will have the sense to know theyâre higher risk and will self isolate.
Also, at a certain point, it wonât just be âgetting it from abroadâ - itâll be getting it in Ireland that will be the risk.
If weâre taking such drastic measures as shutting schools, near crippling parts of the economy and putting all health workers on emergency measures, then shutting pubs if people wonât cop on may be required.
Thatâs as good an anecdote as any of the difference between how China can handle this and a western country. If that occurred in China all involved would be rounded up and put into a detention camp.
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Latest figures suggesting the Irish risk is the big one at this stage.
Re the pubs, I was around Dublin last night and it was eerily quiet. That feckin Cheltenham is playing havoc if you ask me.
Paul Reid very quick to say that we are not in lockdown phase and have no intention in going there. That of course is dependent on infected numbers.
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They should be put to work on assisting the HSE with tracing or such stuff.
Thatâs reassuring to hear. I think most people are taking this fairly seriously and hopefully that wonât prolong it.
I think closing pubs would be a long way from âlockdownâ. They managed to unilaterally close creches yesterdays - private businesses that have a far greater impact on how society operates so maybe pubs arenât untouchable
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They should close all pubs and restaurants until the end of March and see where we are then.
Itâs the delay phase. I would imagine there are standard procedures for this phase which are backed up and thatâs whatâs been implemented. Itâs very important that a set procedure is followed.
If we have to go to the next phase then so be it and those procedures should be put in place then.
Confirmed, bar Cassidyâs every other pub I was in was very quiet
Freeze rents rates and revenue and no problem
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