Army being mobilised today.
They need a coup and quick!
Another 2500 in Italy today.
Fuck you you cunt. I was breathing a sigh of relief before I read it properly. Iâm there on Monday.
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Bypass it
just build the motorway right through it.
Can we request north Korea to nuke buttervant while weâre at it?
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This guy appears to tentatively support the UK government strategy and explains why. I donât buy it. The NHS has been massively underfunded and denuded by creeping stealth privatisation for decades. It looks to me like they are going with a radical economic health over public health strategy and are prepared to put up with deaths on a massive scale in the short term.
I think itâs a spectacular misjudgement and they are dismissing unintended consequences and human behaviour and character. The bullshit narrative of the Brexiteers was that the British public was prepared to endure economic hardship because they had the bllitz spirit. Now the UK Government is saying that the blitz spirit does not exist in a period of more than a few months, yet banking that they can survive possibly hundreds of thousands of massively publicised, effectively planned deaths.
If this goes badly wrong, and I donât see how it wonât, because things going badly wrong is effectively the actual plan, Johnson will be lynched.
then in a population with 60% immunity, and therefore 40% susceptible, that ought to drop down to 1, the ratio at which it no longer spreads exponentially.
It sounds heartless to let 60% get the disease, but the alternative is to stop its spread at some earlier stage, 2/
and risk some small outbreak leading to a whole new explosion of cases at some point in the future. So basically they are calculating that itâs almost impossible to avoid 60% of the population (or thereabouts) getting it, at which point the focus switches to ⌠3/
making that happen in the least damaging way possible. Here a major question is when to adopt strong social distancing measures. I define these as measures that reduce the ratio to below 1. There is some value in weaker measures too, as I have already explained, 4/
but Iâll focus on the really strong ones, which cause the number of new cases (as opposed to number of confirmed new cases â there is a significant lag between the two) to start falling. Iâll follow
's rough estimate that the number of cases â 5/
multiplies by 100 every 20 days. Iâll also assume it takes about 10 days to get from being infected to needing significant hospital treatment if you need it. (These numbers can be changed of course.) Then if weâve done nothing up to now, we can expect 6/
the number of people needing significant hospital treatment to multiply by 10 in 10 daysâ time, and if we introduce lockdown measures now, we can (broadly speaking) expect the number of new cases to decline rapidly in 10 daysâ time. 6/
Those numbers are all a bit dodgy, but they point to the conclusion that the right time to introduce strong measures is when hospitals at are some quite small percentage of their full capacity with respect to beds, ICU beds, ventilators, etc. 7/
If we move too soon, then we risk a second wave. If we leave it too late, then hospitals will be overwhelmed. There will of course be mathematicians modelling this properly, and it sounds as though the government is listening to them. 8/
I find it tempting to agree with people saying we must act right now, but they arenât definitely right: getting the timing right is a delicate balancing act. I hope policy makers will err on the side of caution, but not excessively so. 9/
And I trust Patrick Vallance more than e.g. Nigel Farage or Rory Stewart on this. 10/10
Sociopathic my arse, psychopathic more like.
Iâm retreating to west Kerry tomorrow. Weâll ride it out down there.
Iâll be social distancing on mount Brandon and the beach.
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From a reliable source, someone in Pallas Foods has it and a doctors wife in NCW has it.
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20 new cases
That is a somewhat good signâŚ
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The PP of Labane there on the news. Weâre fuckedâŚ
We are going to beat this fucking thing
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Weâre all doing wonderfully well so far.
Not in my house theyre not. First day offschool and killing each other
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You need to smash some heads