TTK's Profitable Selections 2012

Sport
381

I can’t believe England failed to win that, they were by far the better side and only went behind in the 76th minute, A horrible result for them they fully deserved to win, Strettle was awful at the end not to get over. It’s just one of those results you have to put down to poor luck, hard lines.

[b][font=tahoma][size=3]Total Bets: 39 *[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma][size=3]S/R: 46.2%[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma][size=3]Points Outlay: 102.5[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma][size=3]Return: 129.89[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma][size=3]Profit: 27.39[/size][/font]

[font=tahoma][size=3]* 4 bets i/r.[/size][/font][/b]

382

Bet 44

Ultimate 4.35 Doncaster. 2 points 9/2 numerous firms.

I like this one’s chances. He is a decent chaser, beating the sketchy jumper Australia Day easily in a novice chase, he was back over hurdles when far from disgraced in the greatwood but he was understandably outclassed behind Al Ferof in Grade 1 company. Back in handicap company now he has a couple of mediocre runs to get over but off a mark of 132 with a very handy 7 lbs claimer taking the ride he looks a smashing bet. Big question marks over Takeroc and Quicuyo for me and I’d have Ultimate close enough to a 2/1 chance.

383

nice one ttk :clap: :pint:

384

fantastic TTK

thanks

385

Fair play to TTK for sharing. Others take note.

386

+1 fuck the clique!

387

Thanks Lads. He won by 8 lengths and returned at 7/2.

[b]Total Bets: 40 *
S/R: 47.5%
Points Outlay: 104.5
Return: 140.89
Profit: 36.39

  • 4 bets i/r.[/b][font=tahoma][size=3] [/size][/font]
388

The Ireland-France re-fixture in Paris is at 3pm tomorrow. The bets I had up for when this match was supposed to go ahead have all but one shortened in price.

Bet 45

Johnny Sexton to score over 8.5 points. 3 points. 5/6 Ladbrokes.

Bet 46

Johnny Sexton to outscore Morgan Parra. 2 points. 7/4 Ladbrokes.

[font=tahoma][size=3]I’m hoping this one will be up at half-time. The one thing that often hurts the French is their indiscipline. They gave away 7 penalties (4 kickable) against Italy and 5 penalties (2 kickable) against the Scots. I think they’ll give plenty away tomorrow and Sexton will be happy to take the points. I also think we will get a couple of tries, he should clear the 10 mark. I’m also quite interested in the 7/4 about Sexton to out kick Parra so I’ll have a bet on that one too. [/size][/font]

389

Good shout TTK. FYI powers have similar bet, over 9.5 pts ROG and JS combined at 5/6

390

Bet 47

Son Of Moyne. 4.30 Leopardstown. 1 point e/w. 25/1 Betfred & Totesport.

This was given to me by a fellow man in the know. I got on with Stan James at 25s, they’ve cut it to 14s. Take the 25s.

391

Not to be today. Sexton scored 7 points and missed one from in front of the posts. Son of Moyne was running a big race and connections felt today was his day but he fell. Watch him next time out.

[b]Total Bets: 43 *
S/R: 44.2%
Points Outlay: 111.5
Return: 140.89
Profit: 29.39

  • 4 bets i/r.[/b]
392

Very unlucky TKK. Was on the horse and Sexton, couldn’t believe it when he missed that kick in front of the sticks.

393

We’re now just over 3 months into this thread and it’s going very well. We stand at +29.39 points of proit.

Bet 48

Ireland (-7) v Scotland. 4 points. 10/11 Sportingbet.

Great handicap line there. Most other firms go -8. Ireland should cover this. Other than our loss to Wales we have been in tremendous form, we do have a couple of injuries, but fresh legs and minds is not necessarily a bad thing. Reddan is a positive at 9. Scotland have done very well to date, pushing England close, they frustrated the Welsh for 60 minutes, and they went over twice against the French before, once again succumbing to defeat late on. They have got to be a tired team. The efforts they have put in for the first 3 gameweeks have to be taking their toll and I fancy us to give them a bit of a beating. Don’t forget the Scots will be concentrating on avoiding the Wooden Spoon in their final game against Italy. I couldn’t put you off the alternative handicaps, Ireland -12, -13, -14 etc but I’ll stick to the banker of -7.

Bet 49

Ted Spread 3.15 Sandown. 2 points e/w. 4/1 numerous firms.

I rarely back 4/1 favs in a 24 runner handicap but this is an exception. He looks one of the best each way bets of the year. 5 places being paid by nearly all of the mainstreet bookmakers. Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh he was a decent horse on the flat and now this is his first season over hurdles. He was getting the hang of things when beaten on his first two runs but he hosed up the last time. Up 15 lbs to 135 he still has loads in hand. I think he could well be worth a mark of 150+ by the end of next season. He’s a different level to these. He’s also entered in the County Hurdle on Friday at the festival, he could win both races, we’ll take a good start with a win tomorrow.

394

A 4/1 shot ew?

395

Yes Julio, any punter worth their salt knows an each way bet of the year when they see one and this is such. First 5 places and he is far and away the best horse in the race, if for some insane reason he gets beaten (touchwood he doesn’t fall) then you still don’t incur a loss. If you’re more of a €20 punter, like many, then I advise you to back him on the nose.

396

Ted Spread was bitterly disappointing at Sandown, he tanked into the race two out and looked the winner but he found absolutely zero. I’d imagine something will come to light.

Ireland, as expected, crushed Scotland, they won by 18 easily covering our 7 point handicap and also rewarding the braver ‘alternative h’cap’ punters. It continues the excellent rugby strik-rate in here.

Also one of our six nations bets is already safe with a week to go. Ireland to score over 9.5 tries. They have 13 to date. I’ll add that win into the figures at the end of the tournament.

[b]Total Bets: 45 *
S/R: 44.4%
Points Outlay: 119.5
Return: 148.53
Profit: 29.03

  • 4 bets i/r.[/b]
397

Bet 50

France to score under 23.5 points. 3 points. 5/6 PaddyPower

Looks a big number for the French to achieve against England. I’m a fan of this English side, I think with time and experience they will come good and I’d give them a squeak today too. France have been pretty disappointing in the main, they put 30 past Italy, they were unconvincing when putting 23 past Scotland and managed 17 against us. England will be doing everything to frustrate the French and keep it a low scoring affair. They’ve conceded, 6, 15 and 19 in their 3 games to date, only conceding three tries. I simply can’t see the French breaking loose and I see them scoring a maximum of around 20 points.

Bet 51

Under 38.5 points France v England. 10/11. 3 points. Bet365

Same reasons as above really, I think it will be a low scoring close encounter.

Bet 52

Under 3.5 Tries France v England. 5/6. 4 points. Numerous firms.

Again same reasoning as above.

398

England sure did have a squeak today and got the win! It’s half an aftertime to say I backed them at 12/5 before the game commenced. A great win for a team that I have a lot of time for.

The bets in this thread didn’t go spectacularly, one win, two losses, 4 tries was a negative in one sense but a big positive for the tournament bets. Wesley Fofana continued his fine form going over for his 4th try, all but guaranteeing the e/w part of the 33/1 top tryscorer bet. He is just one behind Tommy Bowe and with a bit of luck we might be in for an even nicer pay day. Things are looking quite rosy.

[b]Total Bets: 48 *
S/R: 43.75%
Points Outlay: 129.5
Return: 154.03
Profit: 24.53

  • 4 bets i/r.[/b][font=tahoma][size=3] [/size][/font]
399

No it’s a full aftertime…

400

Cheltenham is finally here, it’s what gets me through the other 11 months 3 weeks of the year. It can’t come quick enough, this is our Christmas.

I’ll give a quick spin through the horses I fancy in each race for each day and then give the bets I’m getting on.

Supreme Novices

I make this between Galileo’s Choice, Steps To Freedom and Darlan. Preference for the former. He was a shade disappointing on his debut behind Sous Les Cieux but that was on ground that wasn’t ideal. He’ll improve plenty for better ground, Dermot Weld is some man for getting them right on the big day and I’ve heard he’s had a serious bet on this one. STF although he goes well fresh is just solid, he’ll be 3rd maybe but he doesn’t excite me as much as the other two. If Darlan hadn’t fallen last time I’d give him more of a chance and his price is too short anyway.

Arkle

Two words. Sprinter Sacre. He’ll get the bankers off to a good start, can’t see him beat. Al Ferof is a shocking price and hugely over-rated, Cue Card won’t be winning, Menorah can’t jump, forget the rest.

JPT (formally the William Hill)

The one I like here is Fruity O Rooney. He’s gone well at big prices on a few occasions this season, his saddle slipped when in front 4 out lto but he still ran on well to be 3rd. He’s gutsy, will like conditions, looks off a reasonable mark and is a big price at 25s. Forget Hold On Julio, he can’t jump. Tullamore Dew might be the biggest danger.

Champion Hurdle

The fly will win it. Binocular will be 3rd or 4th, Oscars Well will be unplaced. Could be a couple of rags in the places.

X-county

Scotsirish the classiest, would absolutely love to see Garde Champetre reach the frame but I’ll be backing Uncle Junior. Emmet Mullins on it instead of Paddy which is a big positive. He’s a dour stayer and comes alive over this unique course. He’ll be hard bet even from top weight. Another real gutsy horse and 4s is more than fair.

Mares

Quevega

PLI H’cap Chase

This will go to an unexposed one so I won’t be paying any attention to the likes of Hunt Ball and Triolo D’alene. Think an Irish horse could win this one, Dessie Hughes’ White Star Line has a chance but the one I’m backing is Jim Dreaper’s Harpsy Cord. Looks a potential classy sort, won last time over fences after being placed behind Rathlin and Soll he’s making his handicap debut off 132 and he’s from a stable that can get one ready. Hoping he can grab a place anything else is a bonus.

Bet 53

Galileos Choice. 1.30 Cheltenham 8/1. 2 points e/w

Bet 54

Sprinter Sacre & Hurricane Fly Double. 2.44/1. 3 points.

Bet 55

Fruity O Rooney 2.40 Cheltenham. 25/1. 1 point e/w

Bet 56

Uncle Junior 4.00 Cheltenham. 2 points. 4/1.

Bet 57

Harpsy Cord 5.15 Cheltenham. 1 point e/w. 25/1