Red wallers have always been a one off gift for the Tories that couldnât sustain itself. Thereâs been lots of efforts at defacto bribes with Levelling Up but there was always going to be a swing back to Labour.
2019 was a once off bit of luck and circumstance for the the Tories. A keen eye on the results showed that once âBrexit was sortedâ in the eyes of the average voter than the Tory seat total would fall off dramatically. They are going to lose a lot of seats in the south as the Lib Dems vote shrinks.
Trying to maintain the farce of Johnson and his culture wars Brexiteerism is the only way to keep that party going for those northern MPs.
If itâs the membership who decide the whittling down of three candidates to two Johnson is a shoo-in if he gets the 100 MPs.
I thought I was the most cynical bastard imaginable in terms of my belief in how shameless the Tories are willing to be, how much they are willing to debase themselves, but even I honestly thought 44 days was too soon for them to take Johnson back.
This is a good thread about the chaos another Johnson tenure could unleash. Be interesting to see if Jeremy Hunt says anything. He could either kill off Johnsonâs chances of regaining the leadership or condemn another Johnson tenure to disaster if he came out against him before Monday.
If Sunak gets the gig, its the only half chance a few of the red wallers will have of retaining their seats. The tories will still get a kicking but ad they say in gaa terms "they might win the second half " and bring some degree of respectability. As the polls stand at the moment, the SNP would be the biggest opposition party if there was an election tomorrow
The membership wonât vote for Sunak in large part because most of them are old and racist as fuck.
The Tories went down to 165 seats in 1997 and didnât do any better in 2001 but they largely held onto their heartlands.
Sunak or probably Penny Mordaunt would at least hold onto the Tory heartlands for them and keep them in 1997/2001 territory or better, even if they lost heavily. I think Johnson would be more likely to lose these heartlands while not holding onto much if any of the red wall either.
My interpretation of Sir Graham Bradyâs outline was that it took 100 nominations to get to the ballot stage. His rationale was I thought cleverly couched that only in a situation where they had 2 candidates practically deadlocked would the process involve the party membership.
So, potentially they get to a 3 way ballot (unlikely) the hope is that the lowest drops out and favours one of the two remaining thus avoiding the messy membership charade. I donât see Johnson returning.
